The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 1978

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

15 upsets against 15.8 expected

  • Biggest shockMissouri over Notre Dame15% chance · won 3-0
  • Runner-upTulsa over Virginia Tech17% chance · won 35-33
  • Runner-upLong Beach State over Louisiana17% chance · won 10-0

Upsets

Sat, Sep 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 41 games

Final
Air Force@UTEP
68%
32%
34
25
✓
AF −7.6
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Arizona
26%
74%
0
31
✓
ARIZ −9.4
–
–
Final
Pacific@#23Arizona State
18%
82%
7
42
✓
ASU −13.6
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#19Ball State
31%
69%
14
38
✓
BALL −7.0
–
–
Final
#9BYU@Oregon State
69%
31%
10
6
✓
BYU −8.2
–
–
Final
Kent State@#24Central Michigan
22%
78%
0
41
✓
CMU −11.6
–
–
Final
Oregon@Colorado
14%
86%
7
24
✓
COLO −16.6
–
–
Final
Southern Illinois@Drake
54%
46%
14
38
✗
Southern Illinois −1.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Duke
37%
63%
10
28
✓
DUKE −4.7
–
–
Final
#14Florida State@Syracuse
55%
45%
28
0
✓
FSU −2.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Hawaii
35%
65%
16
22
✓
HAW −5.6
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Rice
73%
27%
23
19
✓
ISU −9.9
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@LouisianaUpset
17%
83%
10
0
✗
UL −14.3
–
–
Final
Marshall@Toledo
39%
61%
17
0
✗
TOL −3.8
–
–
Final
Tulane@Maryland
23%
77%
7
31
✓
MD −11.1
–
–
Final
#13Fresno State@McNeeseUpset
77%
23%
16
21
✗
FRES −12.0
–
–
Final
Memphis@Ole Miss
38%
62%
7
14
✓
MISS −4.2
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#4North TexasUpset
21%
78%
17
5
✗
UNT −11.7
–
–
Final
Missouri@#3Notre DameUpset
15%
85%
3
0
✗
ND −15.5
–
–
Final
California@#17Nebraska
30%
70%
26
36
✓
NEB −7.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Indiana State
63%
37%
14
9
✓
NMSU −5.6
–
–
Final
#15East Carolina@NC StateUpset
46%
54%
13
29
✓
NCSU −1.1
–
–
Final
Illinois@Northwestern
44%
56%
0
0
✗
NU −2.0
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ohio
32%
68%
22
23
✓
OHIO −6.9
–
–
Final
#10Oklahoma@Stanford
56%
44%
35
29
✓
OU −3.0
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#2Penn State
17%
83%
10
26
✓
PSU −14.4
–
–
Final
Furman@South Carolina
21%
79%
10
45
✓
SC −11.8
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#21USC
28%
72%
9
17
✓
USC −8.7
–
–
Final
TCU@SMU
21%
79%
14
45
✓
SMU −11.8
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Arkansas State
45%
55%
21
6
✗
ARST −1.5
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Kansas
56%
44%
37
10
✓
TA&M −2.8
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Virginia TechUpset
17%
83%
35
33
✗
VT −14.4
–
–
Final
UCLA@#20WashingtonUpset
31%
69%
10
7
✗
WASH −7.3
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Villanova
50%
50%
28
35
✓
BGSU −0.5
–
–
Final
Virginia@Wake Forest
35%
65%
0
14
✓
WAKE −5.3
–
–
Final
UNLV@Washington State
30%
70%
7
34
✓
WSU −7.4
–
–
Final
West Texas@Texas-Arlington
41%
59%
18
10
✗
Texas-Arlington −2.8
–
–
Final
Richmond@West Virginia
5.3%
95%
12
14
✓
WVU −24.8
–
–
Final
Illinois State@Western Michigan
19%
81%
17
27
✓
WMU −13.2
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Wichita State
57%
42%
10
20
✗
OKST −3.4
–
–
Final
VMI@William & Mary
41%
59%
3
10
✓
William & Mary −3.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Wofford at Appalachian State Appalachian State −6.0 66%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Cal State Fullerton at Boise State Boise State −10.8 77%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Chattanooga at Western Kentucky Western Kentucky −0.4 52%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Presbyterian at The Citadel The Citadel −3.8 61%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD New Hampshire at Holy Cross New Hampshire −5.4 62%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Nicholls at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −2.2 57%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD South Dakota State at Louisville Louisville −27.8 96%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Lamar at Northwestern State Northwestern State −13.1 81%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Idaho at San Jose State San Jose State −18.7 89%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Tennessee Tech at Western Carolina Western Carolina −0.1 52%
Sat, Sep 9 · TBD Idaho State at Utah Utah −16.2 86%