The MRI
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 1979

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 11 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

4 upsets against 2.7 expected

  • Biggest shockHawaii over Arizona State33% chance · won 29-17
  • Runner-upPittsburgh over Penn State43% chance · won 29-14
  • Runner-upTexas A&M over Texas44% chance · won 13-7

Upsets

Thu, Nov 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
13%
87%
3
24
✓
ORE −17.8
–
–

Sat, Dec 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 9 games

Final
12%
88%
18
25
✓
ALA −18.0
–
–
Final
Boston College@Holy Cross
71%
29%
13
10
✓
BC −9.4
–
–
Final
67%
33%
17
29
✗
ASU −7.6
–
–
Final
94%
5.9%
63
0
✓
HOU −25.4
–
–
Final
30%
70%
24
30
✓
MIA −8.1
–
–
Final
14%
86%
7
31
✓
NAVY −16.8
–
–
Final
43%
57%
29
14
✗
PSU −2.3
–
–
Final
2.4%
98%
10
31
✓
TENN −31.4
–
–
Final
56%
44%
7
13
✗
TEX −3.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Tue, Nov 27 · TBD Holy Cross at UConn UConn −1.6 55%