The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 1979

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 67 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

19 upsets against 17.5 expected

  • Biggest shockMiami (FL) over Penn State7.7% chance · won 26-10
  • Runner-upToledo over Central Michigan13% chance · won 7-7
  • Runner-upVanderbilt over Memphis18% chance · won 13-3

Upsets

Sat, Nov 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 61 games

Final
Army@Air Force
60%
40%
7
28
✗
ARMY −4.7
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#1Alabama
7.0%
93%
7
24
✓
ALA −23.3
–
–
Final
#11Arkansas@Rice
96%
3.9%
34
7
✓
ARK −28.6
–
–
Final
Florida@Auburn
18%
82%
13
19
✓
AUB −14.3
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ball State
7.1%
93%
10
28
✓
BALL −23.1
–
–
Final
#5BYU@Colorado State
89%
11%
30
7
✓
BYU −19.8
–
–
Final
Harvard@Brown
12%
88%
14
23
✓
Brown −18.1
–
–
Final
Toledo@#20Central Michigan
13%
87%
7
7
✗
CMU −17.6
–
–
Final
Chattanooga@Western Carolina
57%
43%
42
35
✓
Chattanooga −3.3
–
–
Final
The Citadel@Marshall
65%
35%
17
16
✓
The Citadel −6.5
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#24Clemson
30%
70%
0
31
✓
CLEM −7.8
–
–
Final
Dartmouth@Columbia
79%
21%
17
0
✓
Dartmouth −13.5
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@East Carolina
12%
88%
21
38
✓
ECU −18.3
–
–
Final
#6Florida State@Cincinnati
89%
11%
26
21
✓
FSU −19.9
–
–
Final
Duke@Georgia Tech
33%
67%
14
24
✓
GT −6.6
–
–
Final
#13Houston@TCU
90%
10%
21
10
✓
HOU −20.7
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Indiana
51%
49%
24
42
✗
MINN −0.8
–
–
Final
Colorado@Iowa State
33%
67%
10
24
✓
ISU −6.6
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Kansas
49%
51%
28
36
✓
PK
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Kentucky
21%
79%
14
20
✓
UK −12.7
–
–
Final
Lamar@Louisiana-Monroe
44%
56%
21
7
✗
ULM −1.9
–
–
Final
Pacific@Long Beach State
32%
68%
15
17
✓
Long Beach State −7.2
–
–
Final
#17LSU@Ole Miss
80%
20%
28
24
✓
LSU −13.6
–
–
Final
#15North Carolina@MarylandUpset
58%
42%
14
17
✗
UNC −3.5
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@#9Penn StateUpset
7.7%
92%
26
10
✗
PSU −22.4
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#14Michigan
5.0%
95%
0
54
✓
MICH −26.0
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Northwestern
88%
12%
42
7
✓
MSU −19.0
–
–
Final
#2Nebraska@Missouri
83%
17%
23
20
✓
NEB −15.9
–
–
Final
UNLV@Fresno State
72%
28%
31
28
✓
UNLV −9.9
–
–
Final
North Texas@Louisiana Tech
63%
37%
19
17
✓
UNT −5.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Northern Illinois
36%
64%
0
25
✓
NIU −5.2
–
–
Final
Navy@#22Notre Dame
22%
78%
0
14
✓
ND −11.8
–
–
Final
#8Ohio State@Illinois
93%
7.1%
44
7
✓
OSU −23.9
–
–
Final
#4Oklahoma@Oklahoma State
89%
11%
38
7
✓
OU −20.1
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#10Pittsburgh
13%
87%
21
28
✓
PITT −17.5
–
–
Final
Princeton@Pennsylvania
67%
33%
38
10
✓
Princeton −7.5
–
–
Final
Purdue@Iowa
47%
53%
20
14
✗
IOWA −0.8
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#18TennesseeUpset
19%
81%
13
7
✗
TENN −13.8
–
–
Final
Wyoming@San Diego State
22%
78%
21
31
✓
SDSU −12.0
–
–
Final
NC State@South Carolina
44%
56%
28
30
✓
SC −1.8
–
–
Final
Arizona@#3USC
9.7%
90%
7
34
✓
USC −20.4
–
–
Final
Indiana State@Southern Illinois
37%
63%
38
41
✓
Southern Illinois −4.8
–
–
Final
Louisville@#23Southern Miss
19%
81%
10
10
✗
USM −13.6
–
–
Final
#19Arizona State@StanfordUpset
56%
44%
21
28
✗
ASU −2.9
–
–
Final
#16Temple@Hawaii
78%
22%
34
31
✓
TEM −12.8
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#7Texas
13%
87%
6
14
✓
TEX −17.5
–
–
Final
SMU@#21Texas A&M
22%
78%
14
47
✓
TA&M −12.1
–
–
Final
Texas-Arlington@Arkansas State
55%
45%
56
18
✓
Texas-Arlington −2.6
–
–
Final
Tulane@Boston College
63%
37%
41
8
✓
TULN −5.7
–
–
Final
Wichita State@Tulsa
4.8%
95%
26
28
✓
TLSA −26.3
–
–
Final
Utah@New Mexico
43%
57%
26
7
✗
UNM −2.5
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Utah State
5.1%
95%
7
35
✓
USU −25.9
–
–
Final
Memphis@VanderbiltUpset
82%
18%
3
13
✗
MEM −15.3
–
–
Final
Villanova@Richmond
73%
27%
9
3
✓
Villanova −10.1
–
–
Final
Virginia@Georgia
30%
70%
31
0
✗
UGA −8.0
–
–
Final
#12Washington@California
64%
36%
28
24
✓
WASH −6.2
–
–
Final
Washington State@Oregon State
63%
37%
45
42
✓
WSU −5.9
–
–
Final
West Texas@New Mexico State
56%
44%
54
21
✓
West Texas −2.9
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@West Virginia
58%
42%
23
34
✗
VT −3.6
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Western Michigan
67%
33%
3
24
✗
M-OH −7.5
–
–
Final
Yale@Cornell
55%
45%
23
20
✓
Yale −2.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 3 · TBD Boston University at Holy Cross Holy Cross −10.8 76%
Sat, Nov 3 · TBD Lafayette at Colgate Colgate −14.3 82%
Sat, Nov 3 · TBD VMI at UConn UConn −6.3 67%
Sat, Nov 3 · TBD Furman at Davidson Furman −0.1 49%
Sat, Nov 3 · TBD Western Illinois at Illinois State Western Illinois −0.2 49%
Sat, Nov 3 · TBD Northwestern State at McNeese McNeese −21.3 91%