The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 1979

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 66 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

19 upsets against 17.7 expected

  • Biggest shockHoly Cross over UMass20% chance · won 20-18
  • Runner-upWilliam & Mary over Appalachian State20% chance · won 9-0
  • Runner-upBowling Green over Southern Miss21% chance · won 31-27

Upsets

Fri, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#5BYU@Long Beach State
97%
2.9%
31
17
✓
BYU −30.9
–
–

Sat, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 60 games

Final
#1Alabama@#20LSU
75%
25%
3
0
✓
ALA −11.1
–
–
Final
Baylor@#10Arkansas
24%
76%
20
29
✓
ARK −10.7
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Auburn
34%
66%
3
14
✓
AUB −6.2
–
–
Final
#24Southern Miss@Bowling GreenUpset
79%
21%
27
31
✗
USM −13.5
–
–
Final
California@Washington State
75%
25%
45
13
✓
CAL −11.1
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@#22Central Michigan
2.0%
98%
14
37
✓
CMU −32.5
–
–
Final
The Citadel@Chattanooga
15%
85%
7
28
✓
Chattanooga −16.0
–
–
Final
#19Clemson@#15North Carolina
36%
64%
19
10
✗
UNC −5.0
–
–
Final
Columbia@Cornell
4.1%
96%
7
24
✓
Cornell −27.5
–
–
Final
Brown@Dartmouth
65%
35%
10
24
✗
Brown −6.7
–
–
Final
Richmond@East Carolina
2.0%
98%
10
52
✓
ECU −32.7
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#9Florida State
21%
79%
7
27
✓
FSU −12.4
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Cal State Fullerton
63%
37%
28
24
✓
FRES −5.8
–
–
Final
Western Carolina@Furman
62%
38%
14
23
✗
Western Carolina −5.5
–
–
Final
Florida@Georgia
29%
71%
10
33
✓
UGA −8.3
–
–
Final
Air Force@Georgia Tech
15%
85%
0
21
✓
GT −16.1
–
–
Final
Pennsylvania@Harvard
19%
80%
26
41
✓
Harvard −13.3
–
–
Final
Indiana@Illinois
72%
28%
45
14
✓
IU −9.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Indiana State
49%
51%
21
38
✓
ULM −0.1
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Vanderbilt
87%
13%
29
10
✓
UK −18.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@McNeese
19%
81%
7
41
✓
McNeese −13.4
–
–
Final
Louisville@Memphis
60%
40%
6
10
✗
LOU −4.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Kent State
88%
12%
35
8
✓
M-OH −19.6
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Michigan State
41%
59%
17
31
✓
MSU −3.3
–
–
Final
Missouri@Iowa State
65%
35%
18
9
✓
MIZ −6.7
–
–
Final
#4Nebraska@Kansas State
93%
6.9%
21
12
✓
NEB −24.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@Tennessee State
50%
50%
36
28
✗
UNLV −0.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Colorado State
36%
64%
24
9
✗
CSU −5.3
–
–
Final
Toledo@Northern Illinois
66%
34%
10
28
✗
TOL −7.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@Cincinnati
37%
63%
27
7
✗
CIN −4.8
–
–
Final
Iowa@#6Ohio State
8.9%
91%
7
34
✓
OSU −21.2
–
–
Final
Kansas@#3Oklahoma
2.2%
98%
0
38
✓
OU −32.1
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Colorado
60%
40%
21
20
✓
OKST −4.5
–
–
Final
Oregon@Stanford
26%
74%
16
7
✗
STAN −9.7
–
–
Final
#16Penn State@#25NC State
54%
46%
9
7
✓
PSU −1.9
–
–
Final
#12Pittsburgh@West Virginia
88%
12%
24
17
✓
PITT −19.3
–
–
Final
#8Michigan@PurdueUpset
72%
28%
21
24
✗
MICH −9.8
–
–
Final
Army@Rutgers
11%
89%
0
20
✓
RUTG −18.8
–
–
Final
Arizona@San Diego State
56%
44%
10
42
✗
ARIZ −2.9
–
–
Final
Pacific@San Jose State
11%
89%
31
32
✓
SJSU −18.9
–
–
Final
#2USC@#11Washington
60%
40%
24
17
✓
USC −4.5
–
–
Final
Southern Illinois@Drake
53%
46%
22
21
✓
Southern Illinois −1.9
–
–
Final
SMU@Wichita State
92%
7.7%
34
0
✓
SMU −23.2
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Navy
44%
56%
30
14
✗
NAVY −1.8
–
–
Final
#18Notre Dame@#23Tennessee
48%
52%
18
40
✓
TENN −0.4
–
–
Final
#7Texas@#13Houston
46%
54%
21
13
✗
HOU −1.3
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@TCU
68%
32%
3
3
✓
TTU −7.9
–
–
Final
Texas-Arlington@Louisiana
73%
27%
24
10
✓
Texas-Arlington −10.3
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Tulane
21%
79%
15
49
✓
TULN −12.3
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Tulsa
12%
88%
16
38
✓
TLSA −18.8
–
–
Final
#21Arizona State@UCLAUpset
53%
47%
28
31
✗
ASU −1.6
–
–
Final
UTEP@Utah
11%
89%
0
35
✓
UTAH −19.0
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Virginia
25%
75%
18
20
✓
UVA −10.3
–
–
Final
VMI@Marshall
50%
50%
13
3
✗
VMI −0.4
–
–
Final
Duke@Wake Forest
20%
80%
14
17
✓
WAKE −12.9
–
–
Final
Ball State@Western Michigan
45%
55%
10
20
✓
WMU −1.4
–
–
Final
William & Mary@Appalachian StateUpset
20%
80%
9
0
✗
APP −12.8
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Wisconsin
16%
84%
3
28
✓
WIS −15.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Wyoming
42%
58%
14
17
✓
WYO −2.7
–
–
Final
Yale@Princeton
69%
31%
35
10
✓
Yale −8.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 10 · TBD Bucknell at Colgate Bucknell −1.4 52%
Sat, Nov 10 · TBD Eastern Illinois at Illinois State Eastern Illinois −7.7 68%
Sat, Nov 10 · TBD Holy Cross at UMass UMass −12.9 80%
Sat, Nov 10 · TBD Northwestern State at Lamar Lamar −16.4 85%
Sat, Nov 10 · TBD Akron at #14 Temple Temple −28.2 96%