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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 1979

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 68 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

22 upsets against 17.7 expected

  • Biggest shockSouthern Illinois over Tennessee State6.0% chance · won 18-16
  • Runner-upLamar over Western Kentucky8.8% chance · won 58-27
  • Runner-upLong Beach State over Boise State16% chance · won 9-7

Upsets

Sat, Sep 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 53 games

Final
Colorado State@#20Arkansas
16%
84%
3
36
✓
ARK −14.8
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Auburn
24%
76%
18
26
✓
AUB −10.7
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Baylor
52%
48%
7
17
✗
TA&M −1.4
–
–
Final
California@#21ArizonaUpset
31%
68%
10
7
✗
ARIZ −6.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Chattanooga
34%
66%
7
24
✓
Chattanooga −6.1
–
–
Final
#25East Carolina@DukeUpset
63%
37%
14
28
✗
ECU −5.5
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#15Florida State
27%
73%
3
31
✓
FSU −9.0
–
–
Final
Florida@#5Houston
18%
82%
10
14
✓
HOU −13.7
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Indiana
20%
80%
13
44
✓
IU −12.6
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Iowa State
38%
62%
10
38
✓
ISU −4.1
–
–
Final
LSU@Colorado
55%
45%
44
0
✓
LSU −2.5
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana-Monroe
42%
58%
17
18
✓
ULM −2.6
–
–
Final
Maryland@#6ClemsonUpset
22%
78%
19
0
✗
CLEM −11.6
–
–
Final
West Texas@McNeese
18%
82%
0
21
✓
McNeese −14.0
–
–
Final
Louisville@Miami (FL)
37%
63%
12
24
✓
MIA −4.6
–
–
Final
#16Miami (OH)@Kentucky
56%
44%
15
14
✓
M-OH −2.8
–
–
Final
Oregon@#9Michigan State
20%
80%
17
41
✓
MSU −12.8
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Memphis
37%
63%
38
34
✗
MEM −4.4
–
–
Final
#7Missouri@Illinois
85%
15%
14
6
✓
MIZ −16.4
–
–
Final
The Citadel@Navy
3.4%
97%
7
26
✓
NAVY −28.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@#13Nebraska
16%
84%
14
35
✓
NEB −14.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UTEP
48%
52%
14
13
✗
UTEP −0.2
–
–
Final
Virginia@#12NC State
13%
87%
27
31
✓
NCSU −16.7
–
–
Final
Texas-Arlington@North Texas
8.7%
91%
14
19
✓
UNT −20.7
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Northwestern
72%
28%
22
27
✗
WYO −9.3
–
–
Final
#19Notre Dame@#3MichiganUpset
22%
78%
12
10
✗
MICH −11.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Ohio
33%
67%
7
20
✓
OHIO −6.4
–
–
Final
#10Ohio State@Minnesota
69%
31%
21
17
✓
OSU −8.3
–
–
Final
Iowa@#8Oklahoma
6.4%
94%
6
21
✓
OU −23.3
–
–
Final
Wichita State@Oklahoma State
1.5%
98%
6
16
✓
OKST −33.6
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#11Penn State
27%
73%
10
45
✓
PSU −9.1
–
–
Final
Kansas@Pittsburgh
15%
85%
0
24
✓
PITT −15.7
–
–
Final
Tulane@Rice
71%
29%
17
21
✗
TULN −9.1
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@South Carolina
42%
58%
7
24
✓
SC −2.8
–
–
Final
#2USC@Oregon State
87%
13%
42
5
✓
USC −18.1
–
–
Final
Southern Illinois@Tennessee StateUpset
6.0%
94%
18
16
✗
Tennessee State −23.8
–
–
Final
SMU@TCU
71%
29%
27
7
✓
SMU −9.1
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Southern Miss
32%
68%
6
24
✓
USM −6.7
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Stanford
26%
74%
29
45
✓
STAN −9.5
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Syracuse
24%
76%
14
24
✓
SYR −10.4
–
–
Final
Drake@Temple
1.8%
98%
21
43
✓
TEM −32.5
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Boston College
60%
40%
28
16
✓
TENN −4.4
–
–
Final
#18New Mexico@Texas TechUpset
55%
44%
7
17
✗
UNM −2.6
–
–
Final
Ball State@ToledoUpset
77%
23%
14
31
✗
BALL −11.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Tulsa
16%
84%
20
28
✓
TLSA −14.8
–
–
Final
#22Purdue@UCLAUpset
45%
55%
21
31
✓
UCLA −1.3
–
–
Final
Richmond@VMI
37%
63%
7
17
✓
VMI −4.7
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Virginia Tech
28%
72%
32
41
✓
VT −8.7
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@GeorgiaUpset
19%
81%
22
21
✗
UGA −13.3
–
–
Final
Utah@#4Washington
17%
84%
7
41
✓
WASH −14.6
–
–
Final
Western Carolina@Marshall
34%
66%
24
0
✗
MRSH −5.7
–
–
Final
Colgate@William & Mary
34%
66%
15
28
✓
William & Mary −6.1
–
–
Final
Air Force@Wisconsin
20%
80%
0
38
✓
WIS −12.3
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Kent State at Akron Akron −9.7 74%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD UConn at Army Army −10.8 77%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Weber State at #23 BYU BYU −28.9 97%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Fresno State at Montana State Montana State −6.0 66%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Fort Hays at Illinois State Fort Hays −2.9 56%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Indiana State at Western Illinois Western Illinois −6.3 67%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Lamar at Western Kentucky Western Kentucky −20.6 91%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Boise State at Long Beach State Boise State −15.6 84%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD UNLV at Nevada UNLV −2.4 55%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Holy Cross at New Hampshire New Hampshire −8.1 71%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD East Tennessee State at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −14.6 84%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Cal Poly at Pacific Cal Poly −1.7 53%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Presbyterian at Furman Furman −12.8 80%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD UMass at Villanova UMass −5.3 62%
Sat, Sep 15 · TBD Montana at Washington State Washington State −26.7 96%