The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 1979

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

17 upsets against 15.3 expected

  • Biggest shockEastern Kentucky over Kent State12% chance · won 17-14
  • Runner-upDrake over New Mexico State18% chance · won 14-13
  • Runner-upSouthern Illinois over Louisiana19% chance · won 17-7

Upsets

Sat, Sep 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 45 games

Final
#3Alabama@Georgia Tech
65%
35%
30
6
✓
ALA −6.5
–
–
Final
#15Arizona@Washington State
63%
37%
22
7
✓
ARIZ −5.7
–
–
Final
Lamar@Baylor
4.8%
95%
7
20
✓
BAY −25.6
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Bowling Green
28%
72%
6
32
✓
BGSU −8.6
–
–
Final
BYU@Texas A&M
41%
59%
18
17
✗
TA&M −2.9
–
–
Final
California@Arizona State
31%
69%
17
9
✗
ASU −7.2
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@#19Central Michigan
26%
74%
0
10
✓
CMU −9.5
–
–
Final
Furman@#14Clemson
12%
88%
0
21
✓
CLEM −18.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@DrakeUpset
82%
18%
13
14
✗
NMSU −14.5
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#18Florida State
29%
71%
14
17
✓
FSU −8.2
–
–
Final
#16Houston@UCLA
46%
54%
24
16
✗
UCLA −1.1
–
–
Final
Indiana@Iowa
51%
49%
30
26
✓
IU −1.0
–
–
Final
Indiana State@Wichita State
30%
70%
28
9
✗
Wichita State −7.7
–
–
Final
Toledo@Marshall
44%
56%
14
31
✓
MRSH −1.7
–
–
Final
Villanova@#24Maryland
10.0%
90%
20
24
✓
MD −19.5
–
–
Final
Memphis@Mississippi State
27%
73%
14
13
✗
MSST −9.1
–
–
Final
#25Ball State@Miami (OH)Upset
48%
52%
3
27
✓
M-OH −0.2
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#6Michigan
4.5%
96%
7
49
✓
MICH −26.0
–
–
Final
Illinois@#13Michigan State
11%
89%
16
33
✓
MSU −18.6
–
–
Final
Ohio@Minnesota
31%
69%
10
24
✓
MINN −7.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#20Missouri
26%
74%
15
45
✓
MIZ −9.6
–
–
Final
UNLV@Cal State Fullerton
72%
28%
35
14
✓
UNLV −9.7
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#8New Mexico
13%
87%
16
35
✓
UNM −17.0
–
–
Final
South Carolina@North Carolina
43%
57%
0
28
✓
UNC −2.2
–
–
Final
#4East Carolina@NC StateUpset
56%
44%
20
34
✗
ECU −3.0
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#23Ohio State
23%
77%
8
31
✓
OSU −10.8
–
–
Final
#2North Texas@Oklahoma StateUpset
72%
28%
7
25
✗
UNT −9.5
–
–
Final
Oregon@Colorado
34%
66%
33
19
✗
COLO −6.0
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Purdue
25%
75%
20
41
✓
PUR −9.9
–
–
Final
Holy Cross@Rutgers
13%
87%
0
28
✓
RUTG −17.2
–
–
Final
#7USC@Texas Tech
60%
40%
21
7
✓
USC −4.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Southern IllinoisUpset
81%
19%
7
17
✗
UL −14.0
–
–
Final
Rice@SMU
18%
82%
17
35
✓
SMU −13.5
–
–
Final
Temple@West Virginia
59%
41%
38
16
✓
TEM −4.1
–
–
Final
Texas-Arlington@West Texas
54%
46%
10
6
✓
Texas-Arlington −2.1
–
–
Final
Pacific@UTEP
43%
57%
7
31
✓
UTEP −2.3
–
–
Final
#22Stanford@TulaneUpset
60%
40%
10
33
✗
STAN −4.4
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Air Force
61%
39%
24
7
✓
TLSA −4.7
–
–
Final
Utah@Hawaii
59%
41%
27
23
✓
UTAH −4.2
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Utah State
33%
67%
48
48
✗
USU −6.4
–
–
Final
Richmond@Virginia
26%
74%
0
31
✓
UVA −9.5
–
–
Final
William & Mary@VMI
58%
42%
3
7
✗
William & Mary −3.7
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Louisville
32%
68%
15
14
✗
LOU −6.7
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Wake Forest
46%
54%
23
30
✓
WAKE −0.9
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#17Washington
23%
77%
2
38
✓
WASH −10.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD East Texas A&M at Arkansas State Arkansas State −21.6 92%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Western Kentucky at Chattanooga Chattanooga −5.9 66%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Eastern Kentucky at Kent State Kent State −18.1 88%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Idaho at Fresno State Fresno State −24.0 94%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD SE Louisiana at McNeese McNeese −12.9 81%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Presbyterian at The Citadel The Citadel −5.4 65%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Western Carolina at Tennessee Tech Tennessee Tech −7.1 69%
Sat, Sep 8 · TBD Illinois State at Youngstown State Youngstown State −13.6 82%