The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 1 slate, 1979

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 11 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

1 upset against 2.9 expected

  • Biggest shockMcNeese over Tulsa23% chance · won 6-3
  • Runner-upIndiana State over Drake53% chance · won 19-12
  • Runner-upLouisiana over Louisiana-Monroe56% chance · won 17-13

Upsets

Sat, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 10 games

Final
Colorado State@Arizona
32%
68%
17
33
✓
ARIZ −6.6
–
–
Final
Western Carolina@#22East Carolina
11%
89%
6
31
✓
ECU −18.3
–
–
Final
Drake@Indiana State
47%
53%
12
19
✓
Indiana State −0.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Louisiana
44%
56%
13
17
✓
UL −1.9
–
–
Final
McNeese@TulsaUpset
23%
77%
6
3
✗
TLSA −11.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@New Mexico
41%
59%
0
34
✓
UNM −2.9
–
–
Final
Wichita State@New Mexico State
16%
84%
13
23
✓
NMSU −15.1
–
–
Final
UTEP@North Texas
11%
89%
0
35
✓
UNT −18.3
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Utah
14%
86%
10
34
✓
UTAH −16.5
–
–
Final
Southern Illinois@West Texas
35%
65%
0
14
✓
West Texas −5.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 1 · TBD Northern Michigan at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −16.1 86%