Week 9 slate, 1979

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 67 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

21 upsets against 17.9 expected

Biggest shockOregon State over Stanford8.3% chance · won 33-31
Runner-upKansas State over Missouri10% chance · won 19-3
Runner-upToledo over Miami (OH)14% chance · won 24-21

Upsets

Kansas State 19, Missouri 3Kansas State won; the model gave them 10% before kickoff
Lamar 20, Arkansas State 10Lamar won; the model gave them 24% before kickoff
NC State 16, Clemson 13#21 Clemson lost to unranked NC State
Stanford 31, Oregon State 33Oregon State won; the model gave them 8% before kickoff
Toledo 24, Miami (OH) 21Toledo won; the model gave them 14% before kickoff
Auburn 38, Wake Forest 42#25 Auburn lost to unranked Wake Forest

Sat, Oct 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 60 games

Final

Virginia Tech@

#1Alabama

2.6%
97%

7
31

✓

ALA −30.9

–

Final

Utah State@

#22Arizona State

25%
75%

14
28

✓

ASU −10.2

–

Final

Bowling Green@

Ball State

27%
73%

23
38

✓

BALL −9.5

–

Final

TCU@

#24Baylor

9.6%
90%

3
16

✓

BAY −20.5

–

Final

Boston College@

Army

45%
55%

29
16

✗

ARMY −1.7

–

Final

New Mexico@

#6BYU

7.7%
92%

7
59

✓

BYU −22.4

–

Final

#20Central Michigan@

Kent State

94%
6.5%

44
21

✓

CMU −24.7

–

Final

Richmond@

Cincinnati

5.9%
94%

14
17

✓

CIN −24.6

–

Final

Colgate@Columbia

81%
19%

24
14

✓

Colgate −14.6

–

Final

Air Force@

Colorado State

12%
88%

6
20

✓

CSU −18.7

–

Final

Cornell@Dartmouth

56%
44%

21
10

✓

Cornell −2.9

–

Final

#13North Carolina@

East Carolina

62%
38%

24
24

✓

UNC −5.4

–

Final

#5Florida State@

#17LSU

52%
48%

24
19

✓

FSU −1.2

–

Final

Fresno State@Pacific

41%
59%

33
10

✗

Pacific −3.0

–

Final

Kentucky@

Georgia

35%
65%

6
20

✓

UGA −5.5

–

Final

Hawaii@

UTEP

78%
22%

27
12

✓

HAW −12.6

–

Final

Brown@Holy Cross

62%
38%

7
14

✗

Brown −5.5

–

Final

#14Houston@

#7Arkansas

37%
63%

13
10

✗

ARK −4.9

–

Final

Minnesota@

Illinois

75%
25%

17
17

✓

MINN −11.4

–

Final

Illinois State@Indiana State

17%
84%

21
23

✓

Indiana State −15.1

–

Final

Iowa@

Wisconsin

59%
41%

24
13

✓

IOWA −4.0

–

Final

Kansas State@

MissouriUpset

10%
90%

19
3

✗

MIZ −19.8

–

Final

Lamar@

Arkansas StateUpset

24%
76%

20
10

✗

ARST −11.1

–

Final

Maryland@

Duke

71%
29%

27
0

✓

MD −9.2

–

Final

McNeese@Chattanooga

27%
73%

24
17

✗

Chattanooga −9.1

–

Final

North Texas@

Memphis

52%
48%

0
22

✗

UNT −1.5

–

Final

Indiana@

#9Michigan

10%
90%

21
27

✓

MICH −19.9

–

Final

Vanderbilt@

Ole Miss

12%
88%

28
63

✓

MISS −18.0

–

Final

Colorado@

#2Nebraska

1.2%
99%

10
38

✓

NEB −36.2

–

Final

UNLV@

Wyoming

68%
32%

28
24

✓

UNLV −8.1

–

Final

NC State@

#21ClemsonUpset

34%
66%

16
13

✗

CLEM −6.2

–

Final

South Carolina@

#18Notre Dame

28%
72%

17
18

✓

ND −8.7

–

Final

Michigan State@

#12Ohio State

18%
82%

0
42

✓

OSU −14.3

–

Final

Iowa State@

#4Oklahoma

3.5%
96%

9
38

✓

OU −28.8

–

Final

Oklahoma State@

Kansas

50%
50%

30
17

✗

OKST −0.5

–

Final

Oregon@

Washington State

52%
48%

37
26

✓

ORE −1.1

–

Final

Stanford@

Oregon StateUpset

92%
8.3%

31
33

✗

STAN −22.6

–

Final

West Virginia@

#8Penn State

4.2%
96%

6
31

✓

PSU −27.3

–

Final

Navy@

#10Pittsburgh

14%
86%

7
24

✓

PITT −17.2

–

Final

Princeton@Harvard

48%
52%

9
7

✗

Harvard −0.2

–

Final

Northwestern@

Purdue

2.3%
98%

16
20

✓

PUR −31.8

–

Final

San Diego State@

Utah

45%
55%

17
13

✗

UTAH −1.3

–

Final

Long Beach State@

San Jose State

16%
84%

42
53

✓

SJSU −15.2

–

Final

#3USC@

California

78%
22%

24
14

✓

USC −12.8

–

Final

Southern Illinois@

Northern Illinois

31%
69%

21
11

✗

NIU −7.6

–

Final

Southern Miss@

Mississippi State

45%
55%

21
7

✗

MSST −1.4

–

Final

Miami (FL)@

Syracuse

32%
68%

15
25

✓

SYR −6.8

–

Final

#11Texas@

SMU

70%
30%

30
6

✓

TEX −8.8

–

Final

#23Texas A&M@

Rice

90%
10%

41
15

✓

TA&M −20.8

–

Final

Texas-Arlington@

Louisiana Tech

60%
40%

30
16

✓

Texas-Arlington −4.6

–

Final

Toledo@

Miami (OH)Upset

14%
86%

24
21

✗

M-OH −16.8

–

Final

Georgia Tech@

Tulane

25%
75%

7
12

✓

TULN −10.2

–

Final

Tulsa@

Florida

27%
73%

20
10

✗

FLA −9.4

–

Final

Villanova@

Marshall

67%
33%

24
14

✓

Villanova −7.3

–

Final

Furman@VMI

49%
51%

20
21

✓

Furman −0.1

–

Final

#25Auburn@

Wake ForestUpset

53%
46%

38
42

✗

AUB −1.9

–

Final

#16Washington@

UCLA

55%
45%

34
14

✓

WASH −2.6

–

Final

West Texas@Wichita State

58%
42%

58
0

✓

West Texas −3.8

–

Final

Western Michigan@

Ohio

35%
65%

20
6

✗

OHIO −5.8

–

Final

Pennsylvania@Yale

3.6%
96%

6
24

✓

Yale −28.5

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Oct 27 · TBD	Appalachian State at East Tennessee State	Appalachian State −1.3	52%
Sat, Oct 27 · TBD	Cal State Northridge at Cal State Fullerton	Cal State Fullerton −0.7	53%
Sat, Oct 27 · TBD	Wofford at The Citadel	The Citadel −17.5	87%
Sat, Oct 27 · TBD	William & Mary at Delaware	Delaware −14.1	82%
Sat, Oct 27 · TBD	Cal Poly-Pomona at Louisiana	Louisiana −15.2	84%
Sat, Oct 27 · TBD	Northern Michigan at Drake	Drake −14.5	83%
Sat, Oct 27 · TBD	Louisiana-Monroe at SE Louisiana	Louisiana-Monroe −2.1	54%