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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 1979

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 72 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

23 upsets against 20.0 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthwestern State over Louisiana-Monroe4.2% chance · won 20-14
  • Runner-upColorado over Indiana12% chance · won 17-16
  • Runner-upBowling Green over Western Michigan22% chance · won 15-3

Upsets

Sat, Sep 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 59 games

Final
#1Alabama@Vanderbilt
99%
1.1%
66
3
✓
ALA −38.1
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Arizona
20%
80%
18
38
✓
ARIZ −13.9
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Oregon State
72%
28%
45
0
✓
ASU −9.4
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#5Arkansas
7.0%
93%
8
33
✓
ARK −24.5
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Baylor
43%
57%
17
27
✓
BAY −2.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Western MichiganUpset
22%
78%
15
3
✗
WMU −12.7
–
–
Final
UTEP@#22BYU
4.3%
96%
7
31
✓
BYU −28.6
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Pacific
39%
61%
17
7
✗
Pacific −4.6
–
–
Final
#24Miami (OH)@#16Central Michigan
31%
69%
18
19
✓
CMU −8.4
–
–
Final
Marshall@Chattanooga
5.6%
94%
0
27
✓
Chattanooga −26.5
–
–
Final
Villanova@Cincinnati
21%
79%
13
27
✓
CIN −13.4
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@The Citadel
70%
30%
23
24
✗
APP −8.3
–
–
Final
Colorado@IndianaUpset
12%
88%
17
16
✗
IU −19.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Wyoming
41%
59%
20
16
✗
WYO −4.0
–
–
Final
Colgate@Cornell
22%
78%
21
36
✓
Cornell −12.8
–
–
Final
VMI@East Carolina
5.6%
94%
10
45
✓
ECU −26.5
–
–
Final
#9Florida State@Virginia Tech
68%
32%
17
10
✓
FSU −7.8
–
–
Final
William & Mary@Georgia Tech
15%
85%
7
33
✓
GT −17.4
–
–
Final
West Texas@#15Houston
1.4%
99%
10
49
✓
HOU −36.5
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Iowa
65%
35%
14
30
✗
ISU −6.5
–
–
Final
North Texas@Kansas
67%
33%
18
37
✗
UNT −7.2
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Air Force
73%
27%
19
6
✓
KSU −10.3
–
–
Final
#17Maryland@KentuckyUpset
61%
39%
7
14
✗
MD −4.7
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Northern Illinois
30%
70%
9
3
✗
NIU −8.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Arkansas State
29%
71%
13
9
✗
ARST −9.2
–
–
Final
Louisville@Drake
78%
22%
31
21
✓
LOU −12.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Miami (FL)
16%
84%
0
6
✓
MIA −16.8
–
–
Final
#10Michigan@California
57%
43%
14
10
✓
MICH −2.9
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Minnesota
8.0%
92%
8
38
✓
MINN −23.3
–
–
Final
Florida@Mississippi State
54%
46%
10
24
✗
FLA −1.5
–
–
Final
Navy@Illinois
64%
36%
13
12
✓
NAVY −5.8
–
–
Final
#13Penn State@#8Nebraska
36%
64%
17
42
✓
NEB −5.9
–
–
Final
UNLV@Hawaii
41%
59%
48
31
✗
HAW −3.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico@New Mexico State
74%
26%
30
16
✓
UNM −10.3
–
–
Final
#21North Carolina@Army
66%
34%
41
3
✓
UNC −6.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#23NC State
15%
85%
14
17
✓
NCSU −17.1
–
–
Final
#11Michigan State@#12Notre Dame
39%
61%
3
27
✓
ND −4.9
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ohio
19%
81%
13
43
✓
OHIO −14.8
–
–
Final
#18Ohio State@#19UCLA
39%
61%
17
13
✗
UCLA −4.8
–
–
Final
#3Oklahoma@Rice
92%
7.9%
63
21
✓
OU −23.3
–
–
Final
#25Pittsburgh@Temple
39%
61%
10
9
✗
TEM −4.7
–
–
Final
Oregon@Purdue
20%
80%
7
13
✓
PUR −13.9
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Princeton
71%
29%
38
14
✓
RUTG −9.2
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@San Diego State
29%
71%
17
24
✓
SDSU −9.3
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Georgia
48%
52%
27
20
✗
UGA −1.2
–
–
Final
#2USC@#4LSU
53%
47%
17
12
✓
USC −1.2
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Southern Miss
23%
77%
8
38
✓
USM −12.3
–
–
Final
Boston College@Stanford
25%
75%
14
33
✓
STAN −11.3
–
–
Final
Washington State@Syracuse
27%
73%
25
52
✓
SYR −10.3
–
–
Final
Auburn@#20Tennessee
31%
69%
17
35
✓
TENN −8.4
–
–
Final
#14Texas@#6Missouri
32%
68%
21
0
✗
MIZ −7.7
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@Memphis
68%
32%
17
7
✓
TA&M −7.7
–
–
Final
Texas-Arlington@TCU
53%
47%
21
14
✓
Texas-Arlington −1.0
–
–
Final
Toledo@Eastern Michigan
46%
54%
37
7
✗
EMU −1.9
–
–
Final
SMU@Tulane
53%
47%
17
24
✗
SMU −1.0
–
–
Final
Utah State@Utah
43%
57%
47
21
✗
UTAH −3.1
–
–
Final
Duke@Virginia
32%
68%
12
30
✓
UVA −7.9
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#7Washington
4.0%
96%
14
49
✓
WASH −29.1
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Richmond
52%
48%
20
18
✓
WVU −0.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD SE Louisiana at Ball State Ball State −24.0 92%
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD Rhode Island at Brown Brown −13.3 79%
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD New Hampshire at Dartmouth New Hampshire −0.1 50%
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD East Tennessee State at Furman Furman −9.6 72%
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD Eastern Illinois at Southern Illinois Southern Illinois −0.9 52%
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD Indiana State at Akron Akron −9.1 71%
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD Columbia at Lafayette Lafayette −13.7 79%
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD Pennsylvania at Lehigh Lehigh −20.1 89%
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD UMass at Harvard UMass −3.3 58%
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD Illinois State at North Dakota North Dakota −6.6 65%
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD Northwestern State at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −28.7 96%
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD Western Carolina at Elon Western Carolina −11.3 75%
Sat, Sep 29 · TBD UConn at Yale Yale −9.0 70%