Week 6 slate, 1979

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 71 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

25 upsets against 18.5 expected

Biggest shockPacific over Iowa State2.1% chance · won 24-7
Runner-upKent State over Western Michigan10% chance · won 18-13
Runner-upFlorida A&M over Miami (FL)12% chance · won 16-13

Upsets

Kent State 18, Western Michigan 13Kent State won; the model gave them 10% before kickoff
Tennessee 9, Mississippi State 28#15 Tennessee lost to unranked Mississippi State
Pacific 24, Iowa State 7Pacific won; the model gave them 2% before kickoff
UCLA 24, Stanford 27#24 UCLA lost to unranked Stanford
Kentucky 6, West Virginia 10West Virginia won; the model gave them 22% before kickoff

Fri, Oct 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final

Hawaii@

#22BYU

13%
87%

15
38

✓

BYU −19.1

–

Sat, Oct 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 59 games

Final

Wichita State@

#1Alabama

<0.1%
>99%

0
38

✓

ALA −55.1

–

Final

#6Arkansas@

TCU

96%
4.0%

16
13

✓

ARK −28.9

–

Final

Arkansas State@Richmond

65%
35%

24
3

✓

ARST −6.2

–

Final

NC State@

Auburn

47%
53%

31
44

✓

AUB −1.3

–

Final

Princeton@Brown

21%
79%

12
31

✓

Brown −13.7

–

Final

Ohio@

#16Central Michigan

11%
89%

0
26

✓

CMU −20.1

–

Final

Chattanooga@

Appalachian State

60%
40%

24
21

✓

Chattanooga −3.9

–

Final

Western Carolina@The Citadel

57%
43%

19
21

✗

Western Carolina −2.7

–

Final

Virginia@

Clemson

29%
71%

7
17

✓

CLEM −9.2

–

Final

Pennsylvania@Columbia

46%
54%

7
12

✓

Columbia −1.8

–

Final

Army@

Duke

40%
60%

17
17

✗

DUKE −4.3

–

Final

#11Florida State@

Louisville

77%
23%

27
0

✓

FSU −12.0

–

Final

Georgia@

Ole Miss

61%
39%

24
21

✓

UGA −4.4

–

Final

Holy Cross@Dartmouth

53%
47%

13
7

✓

Holy Cross −1.2

–

Final

Baylor@

#13Houston

19%
81%

10
13

✓

HOU −14.4

–

Final

Indiana@

Wisconsin

57%
43%

3
0

✓

IU −2.7

–

Final

Ball State@Indiana State

73%
27%

13
18

✗

BALL −10.1

–

Final

Iowa@

Illinois

57%
43%

13
7

✓

IOWA −2.7

–

Final

Kent State@

Western MichiganUpset

10%
90%

18
13

✗

WMU −21.1

–

Final

Florida@

#10LSU

17%
83%

3
20

✓

LSU −16.2

–

Final

Louisiana@

Louisiana Tech

35%
65%

0
17

✓

LT −6.4

–

Final

McNeese@Texas-Arlington

38%
62%

14
13

✗

Texas-Arlington −5.1

–

Final

#23Miami (OH)@

Marshall

94%
6.5%

28
0

✓

M-OH −25.0

–

Final

#12Michigan@

#19Michigan State

51%
49%

21
7

✓

MICH −0.2

–

Final

Purdue@

Minnesota

62%
38%

14
31

✗

PUR −4.7

–

Final

#15Tennessee@

Mississippi StateUpset

64%
36%

9
28

✗

TENN −5.8

–

Final

Air Force@

Navy

3.7%
96%

9
13

✓

NAVY −29.7

–

Final

New Mexico State@

#4Nebraska

1.1%
99%

0
57

✓

NEB −37.8

–

Final

Cincinnati@

#9North Carolina

12%
88%

14
35

✓

UNC −19.2

–

Final

Eastern Michigan@

Northern Illinois

28%
72%

0
0

✗

NIU −9.8

–

Final

Georgia Tech@

#7Notre Dame

12%
88%

13
21

✓

ND −19.9

–

Final

Northwestern@

#14Ohio State

0.8%
99%

7
16

✓

OSU −39.6

–

Final

Colorado@

#3Oklahoma

1.5%
98%

24
49

✓

OU −36.2

–

Final

California@

Oregon

54%
46%

14
19

✗

CAL −1.7

–

Final

Pacific@

Iowa StateUpset

2.1%
98%

24
7

✗

ISU −33.7

–

Final

#20Penn State@

#21Maryland

40%
60%

27
7

✗

MD −4.1

–

Final

Boston College@

#18Pittsburgh

9.8%
90%

7
28

✓

PITT −21.6

–

Final

San Diego State@

New Mexico

30%
70%

35
7

✗

UNM −8.8

–

Final

Cal State Fullerton@

San Jose State

12%
88%

0
23

✓

SJSU −19.6

–

Final

Oklahoma State@

South Carolina

21%
79%

16
23

✓

SC −13.4

–

Final

Washington State@

#2USC

1.5%
98%

21
50

✓

USC −35.8

–

Final

Illinois State@Southern Illinois

24%
76%

0
7

✓

Southern Illinois −11.8

–

Final

North Texas@

Southern Miss

24%
76%

10
30

✓

USM −12.0

–

Final

#24UCLA@

StanfordUpset

56%
44%

24
27

✗

UCLA −2.5

–

Final

Syracuse@

Kansas

57%
42%

45
27

✓

SYR −3.0

–

Final

Temple@

Rutgers

61%
39%

41
20

✓

TEM −4.4

–

Final

Rice@

#5Texas

1.6%
98%

9
26

✓

TEX −35.4

–

Final

Texas A&M@

Texas Tech

55%
45%

20
21

✗

TA&M −2.1

–

Final

Toledo@

Bowling Green

28%
72%

23
17

✗

BGSU −9.6

–

Final

Vanderbilt@

Tulane

3.7%
96%

14
42

✓

TULN −29.6

–

Final

Tulsa@

Kansas State

42%
58%

9
6

✗

KSU −3.5

–

Final

Utah@

Colorado State

43%
57%

21
16

✗

CSU −3.3

–

Final

Long Beach State@

Utah State

7.0%
93%

28
51

✓

USU −24.6

–

Final

Wake Forest@

Virginia Tech

36%
64%

19
14

✗

VT −6.3

–

Final

Oregon State@

#8Washington

1.7%
98%

0
41

✓

WASH −35.4

–

Final

Lamar@West Texas

55%
45%

12
12

✓

Lamar −1.9

–

Final

Kentucky@

West VirginiaUpset

78%
22%

6
10

✗

UK −12.7

–

Final

UTEP@

Wyoming

31%
69%

3
23

✓

WYO −8.3

–

Final

Colgate@Yale

19%
82%

0
27

✓

Yale −15.0

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Oct 6 · TBD	Boston University at Harvard	Harvard −4.6	61%
Sat, Oct 6 · TBD	Bucknell at Cornell	Cornell −15.3	82%
Sat, Oct 6 · TBD	Fresno State at Cal Poly	Fresno State −10.4	74%
Sat, Oct 6 · TBD	Truman State at Drake	Drake −6.6	65%
Sat, Oct 6 · TBD	Miami (FL) at Florida A&M	Miami (FL) −19.2	88%
Sat, Oct 6 · TBD	Northern Colorado at UNLV	UNLV −29.5	96%
Sat, Oct 6 · TBD	Louisiana-Monroe at Nicholls	Louisiana-Monroe −0.5	52%
Sat, Oct 6 · TBD	East Tennessee State at VMI	VMI −4.2	60%
Sat, Oct 6 · TBD	James Madison at William & Mary	William & Mary −4.0	59%
Sat, Oct 6 · TBD	Furman at Wofford	Wofford −1.7	54%
Sat, Oct 6 · TBD	Youngstown State at Villanova	Villanova −13.6	79%