The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 1979

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 71 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

20 upsets against 19.9 expected

  • Biggest shockTexas A&M over Penn State12% chance · won 27-14
  • Runner-upDrake over Colorado16% chance · won 13-9
  • Runner-upIndiana State over New Mexico State19% chance · won 40-23

Upsets

Sat, Sep 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 63 games

Final
Baylor@#2Alabama
11%
89%
0
45
✓
ALA −20.3
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Western Carolina
40%
60%
35
27
✗
Western Carolina −4.2
–
–
Final
Toledo@Arizona State
20%
80%
0
49
✓
ASU −14.3
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#5Arkansas
12%
88%
7
27
✓
ARK −19.8
–
–
Final
Southern Illinois@Arkansas State
16%
84%
16
24
✓
ARST −16.6
–
–
Final
Army@StanfordUpset
22%
78%
17
13
✗
STAN −13.0
–
–
Final
#24Southern Miss@AuburnUpset
50%
50%
9
31
✓
AUB −0.3
–
–
Final
Ball State@Kent State
62%
38%
35
10
✓
BALL −5.1
–
–
Final
Villanova@Boston College
52%
48%
7
34
✗
Villanova −0.8
–
–
Final
San Jose State@California
18%
82%
10
13
✓
CAL −15.6
–
–
Final
#21Central Michigan@Bowling Green
64%
36%
24
0
✓
CMU −6.0
–
–
Final
Chattanooga@Furman
66%
34%
45
14
✓
Chattanooga −7.0
–
–
Final
The Citadel@Vanderbilt
30%
70%
27
14
✗
VAN −8.8
–
–
Final
Georgia@Clemson
31%
69%
7
12
✓
CLEM −8.5
–
–
Final
Cornell@Pennsylvania
46%
54%
52
13
✗
Pennsylvania −1.9
–
–
Final
Drake@ColoradoUpset
16%
84%
13
9
✗
COLO −16.7
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@#12Florida State
22%
78%
23
40
✓
FSU −13.1
–
–
Final
Florida@Georgia Tech
57%
43%
7
7
✓
FLA −2.9
–
–
Final
Harvard@Columbia
55%
45%
26
7
✓
Harvard −2.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Hawaii
61%
39%
3
20
✗
UNM −4.6
–
–
Final
Illinois@Air Force
63%
37%
27
19
✓
ILL −5.5
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Illinois State
63%
37%
15
24
✗
EMU −5.3
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Indiana
40%
60%
10
18
✓
IU −4.2
–
–
Final
Indiana State@New Mexico StateUpset
19%
81%
40
23
✗
NMSU −14.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Kansas State
29%
71%
16
22
✓
KSU −9.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Lamar
61%
39%
7
19
✗
LT −4.7
–
–
Final
West Texas@Louisiana
21%
79%
10
19
✓
UL −13.3
–
–
Final
Rice@#10LSU
6.5%
94%
3
47
✓
LSU −25.2
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Louisville
43%
57%
19
22
✓
LOU −3.2
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#15Maryland
21%
79%
14
35
✓
MD −13.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@McNeese
37%
63%
10
12
✓
McNeese −5.7
–
–
Final
Memphis@Wichita State
83%
17%
16
10
✓
MEM −15.9
–
–
Final
Kansas@#9Michigan
4.7%
95%
7
28
✓
MICH −27.8
–
–
Final
#23Miami (OH)@#11Michigan State
27%
73%
21
24
✓
MSU −10.3
–
–
Final
#14Missouri@Ole Miss
63%
37%
33
7
✓
MIZ −5.2
–
–
Final
#7Nebraska@Iowa
83%
17%
24
21
✓
NEB −15.9
–
–
Final
#17Pittsburgh@#22North Carolina
43%
57%
7
17
✓
UNC −3.1
–
–
Final
NC State@West Virginia
79%
21%
38
14
✓
NCSU −13.2
–
–
Final
Marshall@Ohio
29%
72%
0
35
✓
OHIO −9.6
–
–
Final
Washington State@#16Ohio State
11%
89%
29
45
✓
OSU −20.5
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#6Oklahoma
11%
89%
13
49
✓
OU −20.7
–
–
Final
Princeton@Dartmouth
27%
73%
16
0
✗
Dartmouth −10.3
–
–
Final
#8Notre Dame@PurdueUpset
57%
43%
22
28
✗
ND −2.6
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Fresno State
46%
54%
32
23
✗
FRES −1.9
–
–
Final
Duke@South Carolina
38%
62%
0
35
✓
SC −5.2
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#1USC
5.5%
94%
14
48
✓
USC −26.5
–
–
Final
North Texas@#20SMU
27%
73%
9
20
✓
SMU −10.2
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Northwestern
66%
34%
54
21
✓
SYR −6.6
–
–
Final
Utah@Tennessee
30%
70%
18
51
✓
TENN −8.9
–
–
Final
#25Iowa State@#19Texas
36%
64%
9
17
✓
TEX −6.0
–
–
Final
Texas A&M@#3Penn StateUpset
12%
88%
27
14
✗
PSU −19.8
–
–
Final
Arizona@Texas Tech
43%
57%
14
14
✗
TTU −3.1
–
–
Final
UNLV@UTEPUpset
76%
24%
15
17
✗
UNLV −11.6
–
–
Final
Tulane@TCU
70%
30%
33
19
✓
TULN −8.5
–
–
Final
UCLA@Wisconsin
58%
42%
37
12
✓
UCLA −3.3
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Utah State
33%
67%
0
24
✓
USU −7.2
–
–
Final
VMI@Virginia
11%
89%
0
19
✓
UVA −20.3
–
–
Final
William & Mary@Virginia Tech
18%
82%
14
35
✓
VT −15.6
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Wake Forest
58%
42%
20
23
✗
ECU −3.1
–
–
Final
#4Washington@Oregon
77%
23%
21
17
✓
WASH −12.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Western Michigan
24%
76%
17
45
✓
WMU −11.8
–
–
Final
Richmond@Wyoming
13%
87%
7
9
✓
WYO −18.8
–
–
Final
Brown@Yale
30%
70%
12
13
✓
Yale −8.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Cal State Fullerton at Boise State Boise State −25.7 94%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Lehigh at Colgate Lehigh −4.7 61%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Rhode Island at Holy Cross Rhode Island −2.3 56%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Pacific at Idaho Pacific −9.0 71%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD UConn at Navy Navy −25.3 94%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Bucknell at Rutgers Rutgers −26.0 94%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Temple at Delaware Temple −4.7 62%
Sat, Sep 22 · TBD Texas-Arlington at Northwestern State Texas-Arlington −6.6 66%