The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 1979

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 67 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

13 upsets against 16.3 expected

  • Biggest shockHarvard over Yale9.6% chance · won 22-7
  • Runner-upVillanova over Rutgers15% chance · won 32-17
  • Runner-upBoston College over Syracuse16% chance · won 27-10

Upsets

Sat, Nov 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 61 games

Final
Vanderbilt@Air Force
33%
67%
29
30
✓
AF −6.3
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@#1Alabama
4.8%
95%
0
30
✓
ALA −26.3
–
–
Final
Marshall@Appalachian State
15%
85%
7
45
✓
APP −16.1
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Arizona
10%
90%
18
42
✓
ARIZ −20.0
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#23Arizona State
12%
88%
7
42
✓
ASU −18.2
–
–
Final
#9Arkansas@#17Texas A&M
50%
50%
22
10
✓
ARK −0.5
–
–
Final
Auburn@Georgia
51%
49%
33
13
✓
AUB −1.0
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Ball State
21%
79%
0
42
✓
BALL −12.3
–
–
Final
Rice@#25Baylor
5.0%
95%
14
45
✓
BAY −26.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@SyracuseUpset
16%
84%
27
10
✗
SYR −15.5
–
–
Final
Utah@#6BYU
7.9%
92%
0
27
✓
BYU −22.2
–
–
Final
Columbia@Brown
4.1%
96%
14
31
✓
Brown −27.6
–
–
Final
#24California@Stanford
51%
49%
21
14
✓
CAL −1.0
–
–
Final
Chattanooga@Illinois State
91%
8.6%
42
31
✓
Chattanooga −22.2
–
–
Final
#16Clemson@#22Notre Dame
49%
51%
16
10
✗
CLEM −0.2
–
–
Final
Colorado@Kansas
36%
64%
31
17
✗
KU −5.2
–
–
Final
UNLV@Colorado State
55%
45%
21
21
✓
UNLV −2.6
–
–
Final
Dartmouth@Pennsylvania
79%
21%
20
6
✓
Dartmouth −13.3
–
–
Final
North Texas@East Carolina
16%
84%
16
49
✓
ECU −15.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@#8Florida State
4.5%
96%
17
66
✓
FSU −26.8
–
–
Final
Furman@The Citadel
40%
60%
45
44
✗
The Citadel −3.7
–
–
Final
Navy@Georgia Tech
45%
55%
14
24
✓
GT −1.4
–
–
Final
Harvard@YaleUpset
9.6%
90%
22
7
✗
Yale −20.4
–
–
Final
Illinois@Northwestern
65%
35%
29
13
✓
ILL −6.8
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Iowa
51%
49%
23
33
✗
MSU −1.0
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Florida
56%
44%
31
3
✓
UK −2.9
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Wichita State
74%
26%
16
10
✓
Long Beach State −10.7
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#20LSU
24%
76%
3
21
✓
LSU −10.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Louisiana Tech
37%
63%
10
13
✓
LT −4.9
–
–
Final
Louisville@Maryland
22%
78%
7
28
✓
MD −11.9
–
–
Final
McNeese@Louisiana
72%
28%
10
6
✓
McNeese −9.6
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Miami (OH)
17%
83%
14
27
✓
M-OH −14.5
–
–
Final
#19Tennessee@Ole MissUpset
81%
19%
20
44
✗
TENN −14.3
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#4Nebraska
3.7%
96%
3
34
✓
NEB −28.2
–
–
Final
#18North Carolina@Virginia
60%
40%
13
7
✓
UNC −4.3
–
–
Final
NC State@Duke
77%
23%
28
7
✓
NCSU −12.4
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ohio
35%
65%
21
48
✓
OHIO −5.6
–
–
Final
#5Ohio State@#11Michigan
50%
50%
18
15
✓
OSU −0.5
–
–
Final
#2Oklahoma@Missouri
81%
19%
24
22
✓
OU −14.2
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Oklahoma State
37%
63%
15
42
✓
OKST −4.7
–
–
Final
#12Temple@#15Penn State
44%
56%
7
22
✓
PSU −1.8
–
–
Final
#13Pittsburgh@Army
94%
5.6%
40
0
✓
PITT −25.8
–
–
Final
Cornell@Princeton
58%
42%
14
26
✗
Cornell −3.7
–
–
Final
Purdue@Indiana
42%
58%
37
21
✗
IU −2.7
–
–
Final
UTEP@San Diego State
6.3%
94%
20
42
✓
SDSU −24.2
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@South Carolina
30%
70%
14
35
✓
SC −7.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Southern Illinois
26%
74%
28
45
✓
Southern Illinois −9.9
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@SMU
45%
55%
10
35
✓
SMU −1.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Southern Miss
9.1%
91%
6
14
✓
USM −21.0
–
–
Final
TCU@#7Texas
4.1%
96%
10
35
✓
TEX −27.5
–
–
Final
Lamar@Texas-Arlington
19%
82%
37
47
✓
Texas-Arlington −13.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Toledo
12%
88%
3
29
✓
TOL −18.3
–
–
Final
UCLA@Oregon
54%
46%
35
0
✓
UCLA −2.0
–
–
Final
Villanova@RutgersUpset
15%
85%
32
17
✗
RUTG −16.3
–
–
Final
VMI@Virginia Tech
11%
89%
20
27
✓
VT −19.3
–
–
Final
Washington State@#10Washington
4.2%
96%
7
17
✓
WASH −27.4
–
–
Final
Drake@West Texas
20%
80%
18
28
✓
West Texas −12.7
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Eastern Michigan
83%
17%
17
7
✓
WMU −15.5
–
–
Final
Richmond@William & Mary
26%
74%
10
24
✓
William & Mary −10.0
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@MinnesotaUpset
21%
79%
42
37
✗
MINN −12.4
–
–
Final
Wyoming@HawaiiUpset
19%
82%
21
13
✗
HAW −13.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Fri, Nov 16 · TBD Santa Clara at San Jose State San Jose State −29.1 97%
Sat, Nov 17 · TBD Cal State Fullerton at Idaho State Idaho State −1.9 56%
Sat, Nov 17 · TBD #21 Central Michigan at Northwestern State Central Michigan −29.6 97%
Sat, Nov 17 · TBD Delaware at Colgate Delaware −13.9 80%
Sat, Nov 17 · TBD Utah State at Weber State Utah State −22.3 92%
Sat, Nov 17 · TBD East Tennessee State at Western Carolina Western Carolina −9.0 72%