The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 1979

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 69 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

17 upsets against 18.2 expected

  • Biggest shockNorthwestern State over Louisiana Tech11% chance · won 25-21
  • Runner-upKansas over Iowa State23% chance · won 24-7
  • Runner-upWest Virginia over Tulane26% chance · won 27-17

Upsets

Sat, Oct 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 63 games

Final
#20Tennessee@#1Alabama
11%
89%
17
27
✓
ALA −19.2
–
–
Final
Washington State@#21Arizona State
9.5%
90%
17
28
✓
ASU −20.6
–
–
Final
#6Texas@#7Arkansas
40%
60%
14
17
✓
ARK −3.5
–
–
Final
Auburn@Georgia Tech
56%
44%
38
14
✓
AUB −3.0
–
–
Final
Baylor@Army
65%
35%
55
0
✓
BAY −6.5
–
–
Final
#12BYU@Wyoming
88%
12%
54
14
✓
BYU −19.5
–
–
Final
Cornell@Brown
37%
63%
7
28
✓
Brown −4.9
–
–
Final
#19Central Michigan@Ball State
69%
31%
31
30
✓
CMU −8.5
–
–
Final
The Citadel@VMI
36%
64%
37
6
✗
VMI −5.2
–
–
Final
#25Clemson@Duke
68%
32%
28
10
✓
CLEM −7.9
–
–
Final
Colgate@Princeton
37%
63%
17
6
✗
Princeton −4.9
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Colorado State
62%
38%
3
37
✗
SDSU −5.3
–
–
Final
Dartmouth@Harvard
47%
53%
10
7
✗
Harvard −0.6
–
–
Final
Kent State@Eastern Michigan
51%
49%
10
14
✗
KENT −0.7
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Furman
68%
32%
17
31
✗
APP −8.1
–
–
Final
Georgia@Vanderbilt
90%
9.9%
31
10
✓
UGA −21.0
–
–
Final
SMU@#18Houston
26%
74%
10
37
✓
HOU −9.9
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Indiana
6.6%
93%
0
30
✓
IU −23.7
–
–
Final
Kansas@Iowa StateUpset
23%
77%
24
7
✗
ISU −11.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Lamar
44%
56%
17
21
✓
Lamar −1.7
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Long Beach State
41%
59%
14
24
✓
Long Beach State −3.1
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#15LSU
16%
84%
19
23
✓
LSU −15.5
–
–
Final
Cal State Fullerton@Louisiana-Monroe
16%
84%
17
28
✓
ULM −15.2
–
–
Final
Louisville@Indiana State
68%
32%
34
10
✓
LOU −7.9
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@McNeese
40%
60%
7
10
✓
McNeese −3.6
–
–
Final
Boston College@Miami (FL)
27%
73%
8
19
✓
MIA −9.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Bowling Green
71%
29%
21
3
✓
M-OH −9.3
–
–
Final
#9Michigan@Illinois
89%
11%
27
7
✓
MICH −20.0
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Iowa
39%
61%
24
7
✗
IOWA −3.9
–
–
Final
Marshall@Mississippi State
3.4%
97%
0
48
✓
MSST −29.0
–
–
Final
#22Missouri@Colorado
81%
19%
13
7
✓
MIZ −14.7
–
–
Final
Virginia@Navy
41%
59%
10
17
✓
NAVY −3.0
–
–
Final
#2Nebraska@Oklahoma State
85%
15%
36
0
✓
NEB −16.9
–
–
Final
Utah@UNLV
30%
70%
41
43
✓
UNLV −7.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico
13%
87%
0
20
✓
UNM −17.5
–
–
Final
#16North Carolina@#24NC State
52%
48%
35
21
✓
UNC −1.3
–
–
Final
West Texas@North Texas
12%
88%
14
28
✓
UNT −18.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Illinois State
65%
35%
33
7
✓
NIU −6.6
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@#17Ohio State
10%
90%
0
59
✓
OSU −19.9
–
–
Final
#4Oklahoma@Kansas State
92%
8.4%
38
6
✓
OU −22.4
–
–
Final
Air Force@Oregon
7.7%
92%
9
17
✓
ORE −22.4
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#10Penn State
15%
85%
7
35
✓
PSU −15.9
–
–
Final
#14Pittsburgh@#8Washington
34%
66%
26
14
✗
WASH −5.9
–
–
Final
Purdue@Michigan State
38%
62%
14
7
✗
MSU −4.4
–
–
Final
Rutgers@William & Mary
72%
28%
24
0
✓
RUTG −9.7
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Oregon State
76%
24%
24
14
✓
SJSU −11.6
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@South Carolina
12%
88%
14
21
✓
SC −18.0
–
–
Final
#3USC@#11Notre Dame
55%
45%
42
23
✓
USC −2.6
–
–
Final
Memphis@Southern Miss
14%
86%
0
22
✓
USM −17.0
–
–
Final
Stanford@Arizona
33%
67%
30
10
✗
ARIZ −6.5
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#13Temple
9.8%
90%
14
35
✓
TEM −20.3
–
–
Final
TCU@Tulsa
29%
71%
24
17
✗
TLSA −8.5
–
–
Final
Rice@Texas Tech
12%
88%
7
30
✓
TTU −18.1
–
–
Final
Texas-Arlington@New Mexico State
61%
39%
42
14
✓
Texas-Arlington −4.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Toledo
47%
53%
13
21
✓
TOL −0.8
–
–
Final
California@UCLA
40%
60%
27
28
✓
UCLA −3.6
–
–
Final
Utah State@Pacific
84%
16%
15
14
✓
USU −16.1
–
–
Final
Holy Cross@Villanova
31%
69%
14
29
✓
Villanova −7.4
–
–
Final
Richmond@Virginia Tech
7.5%
92%
0
34
✓
VT −22.6
–
–
Final
Maryland@Wake Forest
51%
49%
17
25
✗
MD −0.7
–
–
Final
Tulane@West Virginia
74%
26%
17
27
✗
TULN −10.9
–
–
Final
Drake@Wichita State
57%
43%
17
24
✗
Drake −3.4
–
–
Final
Yale@Columbia
92%
8.3%
37
7
✓
Yale −22.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Fri, Oct 19 · TBD Lafayette at Pennsylvania Pennsylvania −4.7 63%
Sat, Oct 20 · TBD Middle Tennessee at Chattanooga Chattanooga −4.5 62%
Sat, Oct 20 · TBD Prairie View A&M at Hawaii Hawaii −21.8 92%
Sat, Oct 20 · TBD Northwestern State at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −18.9 89%
Sat, Oct 20 · TBD Lenoir Rhyne at Western Carolina Western Carolina −15.8 84%
Sat, Oct 20 · TBD Grand Valley State at Western Michigan Western Michigan −17.8 87%