The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 1979

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 71 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos

Not yet ranked against the archive.

23 upsets against 18.6 expected

  • Biggest shockEast Tennessee State over Chattanooga10% chance · won 35-0
  • Runner-upWake Forest over North Carolina12% chance · won 24-19
  • Runner-upOhio over Miami (OH)14% chance · won 9-7

Upsets

Sat, Oct 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 63 games

Final
#1Alabama@Florida
85%
15%
40
0
✓
ALA −17.0
–
–
Final
Oregon@Arizona
27%
73%
13
24
✓
ARIZ −10.1
–
–
Final
#5Washington@#22Arizona State
59%
41%
7
12
✗
WASH −3.6
–
–
Final
#12Arkansas@Texas Tech
69%
31%
20
6
✓
ARK −7.9
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana Tech
42%
58%
14
7
✗
LT −3.5
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Auburn
2.6%
97%
35
52
✓
AUB −32.2
–
–
Final
Illinois State@Ball State
4.7%
95%
14
42
✓
BALL −27.9
–
–
Final
Baylor@SMU
35%
65%
24
21
✗
SMU −6.5
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Kent State
62%
38%
28
17
✓
BGSU −5.1
–
–
Final
#18BYU@Utah State
54%
46%
48
24
✓
BYU −1.5
–
–
Final
Brown@Pennsylvania
88%
12%
24
18
✓
Brown −19.0
–
–
Final
Oregon State@California
7.3%
93%
0
45
✓
CAL −24.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#14Central Michigan
2.5%
98%
11
31
✓
CMU −32.6
–
–
Final
Clemson@Virginia Tech
54%
46%
21
0
✓
CLEM −1.7
–
–
Final
Colgate@Holy Cross
26%
74%
17
16
✗
Holy Cross −10.8
–
–
Final
Colorado State@UTEP
60%
40%
17
3
✓
CSU −4.0
–
–
Final
Harvard@Cornell
28%
72%
14
41
✓
Cornell −9.7
–
–
Final
Duke@Richmond
74%
26%
34
7
✓
DUKE −10.6
–
–
Final
The Citadel@East Carolina
8.2%
92%
7
49
✓
ECU −23.2
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#6Florida State
18%
82%
6
17
✓
FSU −15.6
–
–
Final
Marshall@Furman
44%
56%
24
34
✓
Furman −2.8
–
–
Final
#9LSU@GeorgiaUpset
74%
26%
14
21
✗
LSU −10.4
–
–
Final
#15Houston@#23Texas A&M
47%
53%
17
14
✗
TA&M −1.4
–
–
Final
Iowa@Northwestern
80%
20%
58
6
✓
IOWA −13.6
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Kansas State
48%
52%
7
3
✗
KSU −0.9
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Kentucky
24%
76%
3
14
✓
UK −11.9
–
–
Final
Long Beach State@Drake
43%
57%
17
14
✗
Drake −3.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@MemphisUpset
24%
76%
21
20
✗
MEM −11.9
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Louisville
42%
58%
7
24
✓
LOU −3.7
–
–
Final
McNeese@Lamar
56%
44%
34
25
✓
McNeese −2.5
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#7Michigan
14%
86%
21
31
✓
MICH −18.2
–
–
Final
Navy@William & Mary
72%
28%
24
7
✓
NAVY −9.5
–
–
Final
Kansas@#4Nebraska
3.0%
97%
0
42
✓
NEB −31.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UNLV
37%
63%
20
28
✓
UNLV −5.6
–
–
Final
Maryland@NC State
41%
59%
0
7
✓
NCSU −3.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@North Texas
17%
84%
7
21
✓
UNT −16.3
–
–
Final
#11Notre Dame@Air Force
96%
3.8%
38
13
✓
ND −29.3
–
–
Final
Ohio@#21Miami (OH)Upset
14%
86%
9
7
✗
M-OH −18.1
–
–
Final
Indiana@#20Ohio State
22%
78%
6
47
✓
OSU −12.7
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#17MissouriUpset
17%
83%
14
13
✗
MIZ −15.7
–
–
Final
Pacific@Louisiana
28%
72%
10
7
✗
UL −10.0
–
–
Final
Army@#13Penn State
8.9%
91%
3
24
✓
PSU −22.4
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@#16Pittsburgh
18%
82%
0
35
✓
PITT −15.5
–
–
Final
Columbia@Princeton
18%
82%
7
35
✓
Princeton −15.1
–
–
Final
Illinois@Purdue
15%
85%
14
28
✓
PUR −17.0
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@San Diego State
33%
67%
20
31
✓
SDSU −7.4
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Fresno State
65%
35%
35
22
✓
SJSU −6.4
–
–
Final
Wichita State@Southern Illinois
35%
65%
7
31
✓
Southern Illinois −6.5
–
–
Final
#2USC@Stanford
81%
19%
21
21
✓
USC −14.7
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#19Temple
28%
72%
17
49
✓
TEM −9.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Tennessee
28%
72%
0
31
✓
TENN −9.8
–
–
Final
#3Oklahoma@#10Texas
56%
44%
7
16
✗
OU −2.4
–
–
Final
TCU@Rice
39%
61%
17
7
✗
RICE −4.9
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Toledo
46%
54%
0
17
✓
TOL −1.9
–
–
Final
Tulane@#25Southern MissUpset
32%
68%
20
19
✗
USM −7.9
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Utah
34%
66%
14
24
✓
UTAH −7.2
–
–
Final
VMI@Appalachian StateUpset
14%
86%
27
22
✗
APP −18.0
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#8North CarolinaUpset
12%
88%
24
19
✗
UNC −20.0
–
–
Final
UCLA@Washington StateUpset
77%
23%
14
17
✗
UCLA −12.1
–
–
Final
Indiana State@West Texas
59%
41%
17
33
✗
Indiana State −3.6
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Boston College
34%
66%
20
18
✗
BC −7.1
–
–
Final
#24Michigan State@WisconsinUpset
73%
27%
29
38
✗
MSU −10.1
–
–
Final
Dartmouth@Yale
13%
87%
0
3
✓
Yale −18.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 13 · TBD Akron at Eastern Michigan Akron −4.3 60%
Sat, Oct 13 · TBD Delaware at Villanova Delaware −1.3 53%
Sat, Oct 13 · TBD Chattanooga at East Tennessee State Chattanooga −20.8 90%
Sat, Oct 13 · TBD Eastern Kentucky at Cal State Fullerton Cal State Fullerton −9.1 70%
Sat, Oct 13 · TBD Santa Clara at Hawaii Hawaii −17.7 86%
Sat, Oct 13 · TBD Rutgers at UConn Rutgers −8.7 70%
Sat, Oct 13 · TBD James Madison at Virginia Virginia −28.6 96%
Sat, Oct 13 · TBD Wofford at Western Carolina Western Carolina −19.9 88%