The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2021

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 11 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 89

Wilder than 89% of weeks in the archive.

6 upsets against 4.2 expected

  • Biggest shockUtah State over San Diego State25% chance · won 46-13
  • Runner-upAlabama over Georgia30% chance · won 41-24
  • Runner-upBaylor over Oklahoma State38% chance · won 21-16

Upsets

Fri, Dec 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#18Oregonvs#13Utah
45%
55%
10
38
✓
UTAH −1.6
–
–

Sat, Dec 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
#24Baylorvs#10Oklahoma State
38%
62%
21
16
✗
OKST −4.3
–
–
Final
Kent StatevsNorthern Illinois
52%
48%
23
41
✗
KENT −1.4
–
–

Afternoon 4 games

Final
Utah State@San Diego StateUpset
25%
75%
46
13
✗
SDSU −10.3
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Louisiana
60%
40%
16
24
✗
APP −4.7
–
–
Final
#1Georgiavs#3Alabama
70%
30%
24
41
✗
UGA −8.7
–
–
Final
Houston@#6Cincinnati
19%
82%
20
35
✓
CIN −13.8
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
#16Pittsburghvs#20Wake Forest
52%
48%
45
21
✓
PITT −1.2
–
–
Final
#4Michiganvs#15Iowa
68%
32%
42
3
✓
MICH −8.2
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
USC@California
50%
50%
14
24
✗
USC −0.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Western Kentucky@UTSA
48%
52%
41
49
✓
UTSA −0.2
–
–