The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2021

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 67 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 73

Wilder than 73% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 15.5 expected

  • Biggest shockBowling Green over Minnesota1.0% chance · won 14-10
  • Runner-upLouisiana-Monroe over Troy11% chance · won 29-16
  • Runner-upGeorgia Tech over North Carolina20% chance · won 45-22

Upsets

Thu, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Marshall@Appalachian State
35%
65%
30
31
✓
APP −6.7
–
–

Fri, Sep 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Middle Tennessee@Charlotte
36%
64%
39
42
✓
CLT −5.8
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Wake Forest@Virginia
45%
55%
37
17
✗
UVA −2.0
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
UNLV@Fresno State
3.8%
96%
30
38
✓
FRES −29.4
–
–

Sat, Sep 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
#21LSU@Mississippi State
61%
39%
28
25
✓
LSU −4.6
–
–
Final
Missouri@Boston College
38%
62%
34
41
✓
BC −5.3
–
–
Final
#1Georgia@Vanderbilt
>99%
0.5%
62
0
✓
UGA −42.2
–
–
Final
FIU@Central Michigan
24%
76%
27
31
✓
CMU −11.8
–
–
Final
#20Notre Damevs#15Wisconsin
44%
56%
41
13
✗
WIS −2.4
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@#25MinnesotaUpset
1.0%
99%
14
10
✗
MINN −38.3
–
–
Final
Ohio@Northwestern
12%
88%
6
35
✓
NU −19.4
–
–
Final
SMU@#23TCUUpset
20%
80%
42
34
✗
TCU −13.9
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#18Texas
15%
86%
35
70
✓
TEX −17.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Army
22%
78%
10
23
✓
ARMY −12.7
–
–
Final
Boise State@Utah State
78%
22%
27
3
✓
BOIS −12.4
–
–
Final
UMass@Coastal Carolina
1.2%
99%
3
53
✓
CCU −37.7
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Western Michigan
54%
46%
3
23
✗
SJSU −1.4
–
–
Final
Toledo@Ball State
61%
39%
22
12
✓
TOL −4.6
–
–
Final
Texas State@Eastern Michigan
40%
60%
21
59
✓
EMU −4.3
–
–
Final
Washington State@Utah
26%
74%
13
24
✓
UTAH −10.6
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
#7Texas A&Mvs#22Arkansas
68%
32%
10
20
✗
TA&M −7.8
–
–
Final
UTSA@Memphis
49%
51%
31
28
✗
MEM −0.4
–
–
Final
Louisville@Florida State
54%
46%
31
23
✓
LOU −1.5
–
–
Final
#6Clemson@NC StateUpset
75%
25%
21
27
✗
CLEM −11.1
–
–
Final
Illinois@Purdue
25%
75%
9
13
✓
PUR −11.3
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#4Iowa
1.4%
99%
14
24
✓
IOWA −36.6
–
–
Final
Kent State@Maryland
18%
82%
16
37
✓
MD −15.5
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#8Michigan
24%
76%
13
20
✓
MICH −11.8
–
–
Final
Wyoming@UConn
91%
9.4%
24
22
✓
WYO −21.7
–
–
Final
#24Iowa State@BaylorUpset
50%
50%
29
31
✗
ISU −0.1
–
–
Final
Georgia State@#16Auburn
4.4%
96%
24
34
✓
AUB −28.4
–
–
Final
Kansas@Duke
16%
84%
33
52
✓
DUKE −16.8
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Tulsa
19%
80%
34
41
✓
TLSA −14.4
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Old Dominion
76%
24%
35
34
✓
BUF −11.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Georgia Southern
79%
21%
28
20
✓
UL −13.4
–
–
Final
#19UCLA@Stanford
58%
42%
35
24
✓
UCLA −3.5
–
–

Prime time 12 games

Final
Tennessee@#9Florida
17%
83%
14
38
✓
FLA −15.7
–
–
Final
Kentucky@South Carolina
36%
64%
16
10
✗
SC −6.3
–
–
Final
North Texas@Louisiana Tech
23%
77%
17
24
✓
LT −12.2
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Michigan State
44%
56%
20
23
✓
MSU −2.8
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Oklahoma State
50%
50%
20
31
✓
OKST −0.1
–
–
Final
Navy@Houston
10%
90%
20
28
✓
HOU −21.2
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#2Alabama
0.3%
>99%
14
63
✓
ALA −45.5
–
–
Final
#17North CarolinavsGeorgia TechUpset
80%
20%
22
45
✗
UNC −14.1
–
–
Final
Akron@#3Ohio State
0.1%
>99%
7
59
✓
OSU −52.8
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#11Oklahoma
25%
75%
13
16
✓
OU −11.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UTEP
47%
53%
13
20
✓
UTEP −1.5
–
–
Final
California@Washington
38%
62%
24
31
✓
WASH −5.3
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
USF@BYU
6.2%
94%
27
35
✓
BYU −25.5
–
–
Final
Arizona@#12Oregon
2.7%
97%
19
41
✓
ORE −32.1
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#14USCUpset
20%
80%
45
27
✗
USC −13.9
–
–
Final
Colorado@Arizona State
25%
75%
13
35
✓
ASU −11.4
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Liberty@Syracuse
39%
61%
21
24
✓
SYR −4.7
–
–

Sun, Sep 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
Florida Atlantic@Air Force
46%
54%
7
31
✓
AF −1.7
–
–
Final
UAB@Tulane
45%
55%
28
21
✗
TULN −2.3
–
–
Final
Indiana@Western Kentucky
77%
23%
33
31
✓
IU −12.3
–
–
Final
Troy@Louisiana-MonroeUpset
89%
11%
16
29
✗
TROY −20.5
–
–
Final
Hawaii@New Mexico State
84%
16%
41
21
✓
HAW −16.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 25 · 6:30 PM ET Texas Southern at Rice Rice −13.9 80%
Sat, Sep 25 · 12:30 PM ET Central Connecticut at Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −26.2 94%
Sat, Sep 25 · 12:00 PM ET New Hampshire at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh −30.8 97%
Sat, Sep 25 · 12:00 PM ET Richmond at Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −31.8 97%
Sat, Sep 25 · 12:00 PM ET Villanova at #5 Penn State Penn State −43.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 25 · 6:00 PM ET Charleston Southern at East Carolina East Carolina −22.8 91%
Sat, Sep 25 · 12:00 PM ET Wagner at Temple Temple −20.5 89%
Sat, Sep 25 · 2:30 PM ET Maine at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −8.2 69%
Sat, Sep 25 · 3:30 PM ET Towson at San Diego State San Diego State −25.7 94%