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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2021

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 73 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 80

Wilder than 80% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 15.2 expected

  • Biggest shockColorado State over Toledo9.2% chance · won 22-6
  • Runner-upWestern Michigan over Pittsburgh10% chance · won 44-41
  • Runner-upFresno State over UCLA16% chance · won 40-37

Upsets

Fri, Sep 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
#25UCF@LouisvilleUpset
70%
30%
35
42
✗
UCF −8.8
–
–
Final
Maryland@Illinois
64%
36%
20
17
✓
MD −6.1
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Ohio@Louisiana
21%
79%
14
49
✓
UL −11.8
–
–

Sat, Sep 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
New Mexico@#6Texas A&M
0.6%
99%
0
34
✓
TA&M −39.4
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Miami (FL)
40%
60%
38
17
✗
MIA −3.2
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@PittsburghUpset
10.0%
90%
44
41
✗
PITT −19.5
–
–
Final
Boston College@Temple
84%
16%
28
3
✓
BC −16.2
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@West Virginia
45%
55%
21
27
✓
WVU −1.3
–
–
Final
#14Cincinnati@Indiana
58%
42%
38
24
✓
CIN −3.6
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@#15Michigan
1.6%
98%
10
63
✓
MICH −33.1
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#8Oklahoma
19%
81%
16
23
✓
OU −13.0
–
–
Final
UConn@Army
1.4%
99%
21
52
✓
ARMY −34.1
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Buffalo
67%
33%
28
25
✓
CCU −7.2
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Colorado
45%
55%
30
0
✗
COLO −1.6
–
–
Final
Nevada@Kansas State
38%
62%
17
38
✓
KSU −4.2
–
–
Final
#24Purdue@#17Notre Dame
37%
63%
13
27
✓
ND −4.8
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
#2Alabama@#9Florida
68%
32%
31
29
✓
ALA −7.5
–
–
Final
SMU@Louisiana Tech
68%
32%
39
37
✓
SMU −7.7
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#4Clemson
5.9%
94%
8
14
✓
CLEM −23.9
–
–
Final
Florida State@Wake Forest
30%
70%
14
35
✓
WAKE −7.5
–
–
Final
Kent State@#5Iowa
3.2%
97%
7
30
✓
IOWA −28.6
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#3Ohio State
2.8%
97%
20
41
✓
OSU −29.6
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@UMass
89%
11%
42
28
✓
EMU −19.3
–
–
Final
Baylor@Kansas
89%
11%
45
7
✓
BAY −19.3
–
–
Final
#16USC@Washington State
81%
19%
45
14
✓
USC −14.0
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Arkansas
3.3%
97%
10
45
✓
ARK −28.4
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Memphis
65%
35%
29
31
✗
MSST −6.4
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Duke
56%
44%
23
30
✗
NU −2.7
–
–
Final
Ball State@Wyoming
44%
56%
12
45
✓
WYO −1.9
–
–
Final
Colorado State@ToledoUpset
9.2%
91%
22
6
✗
TOL −20.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Washington
15%
85%
3
52
✓
WASH −15.4
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@UTSA
17%
83%
13
27
✓
UTSA −14.1
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Marshall
29%
71%
42
38
✗
MRSH −8.2
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Liberty
18%
82%
17
45
✓
LIB −13.5
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
South Carolina@#1Georgia
3.1%
97%
13
40
✓
UGA −28.8
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Georgia State
61%
39%
9
20
✗
CLT −4.8
–
–
Final
FIU@Texas Tech
18%
82%
21
54
✓
TTU −13.9
–
–
Final
Troy@Southern Miss
64%
36%
21
9
✓
TROY −6.1
–
–
Final
Utah@San Diego State
49%
51%
31
33
✓
UTAH −0.2
–
–
Final
#13Auburn@#7Penn State
34%
66%
20
28
✓
PSU −6.0
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@#23LSU
8.6%
91%
21
49
✓
LSU −20.8
–
–
Final
UAB@North Texas
75%
25%
40
6
✓
UAB −10.8
–
–
Final
Virginia@#18North Carolina
37%
63%
39
59
✓
UNC −4.8
–
–
Final
Utah State@Air ForceUpset
18%
82%
49
45
✗
AF −13.8
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Boise State
33%
67%
21
20
✗
BOIS −6.3
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
#20Arizona State@BYUUpset
59%
41%
17
27
✗
ASU −4.2
–
–
Final
Iowa State@UNLV
95%
5.1%
48
3
✓
ISU −25.8
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#12UCLAUpset
16%
84%
40
37
✗
UCLA −15.2
–
–

Sun, Sep 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
San Jose State@Hawaii
66%
34%
17
13
✓
SJSU −6.7
–
–

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Tulane@#19Ole Miss
26%
74%
21
61
✓
MISS −9.7
–
–
Final
Stanford@Vanderbilt
85%
15%
41
23
✓
STAN −16.5
–
–
Final
Rice@#21Texas
1.9%
98%
0
58
✓
TEX −32.1
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 18 · 12:00 PM ET Chattanooga at Kentucky Kentucky −41.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 18 · 12:00 PM ET Southeast Missouri State at Missouri Missouri −27.5 96%
Sat, Sep 18 · 12:00 PM ET Tennessee Tech at Tennessee Tennessee −27.2 96%
Sat, Sep 18 · 6:00 PM ET Fordham at Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic −32.2 98%
Sat, Sep 18 · 7:30 PM ET Furman at NC State NC State −29.0 97%
Sat, Sep 18 · 12:00 PM ET UAlbany at Syracuse Syracuse −21.9 92%
Sat, Sep 18 · 3:30 PM ET Delaware at Rutgers Rutgers −25.6 95%
Sat, Sep 18 · 7:00 PM ET Grambling at Houston Houston −35.9 99%
Sat, Sep 18 · 7:00 PM ET Florida A&M at USF USF −6.7 68%
Sat, Sep 18 · 3:30 PM ET Long Island University at Miami (OH) Miami (OH) −28.9 97%
Sat, Sep 18 · 3:30 PM ET Bryant at Akron Bryant −4.8 61%
Sat, Sep 18 · 5:00 PM ET Murray State at Bowling Green Bowling Green −1.2 54%
Sat, Sep 18 · 3:30 PM ET Elon at Appalachian State Appalachian State −29.7 97%
Sun, Sep 19 · TBD Jackson State at Louisiana-Monroe Jackson State −4.8 61%
Sun, Sep 19 · TBD Alcorn State at South Alabama South Alabama −12.7 80%
Sat, Sep 18 · 7:00 PM ET Incarnate Word at Texas State Texas State −14.0 82%
Sat, Sep 18 · 4:00 PM ET Sacramento State at California California −22.7 93%
Sat, Sep 18 · 7:30 PM ET Stony Brook at #10 Oregon Oregon −41.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 18 · 3:30 PM ET Idaho at Oregon State Oregon State −35.9 99%
Sat, Sep 18 · 10:00 PM ET Northern Arizona at Arizona Arizona −13.2 81%
Sun, Sep 19 · TBD South Carolina State at New Mexico State South Carolina State −0.2 49%