The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Bowls slate, 2021

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 38 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 93

Wilder than 93% of weeks in the archive.

19 upsets against 13.1 expected

  • Biggest shockTexas Tech over Mississippi State24% chance · won 34-7
  • Runner-upWestern Michigan over Nevada25% chance · won 52-24
  • Runner-upUtah State over Oregon State25% chance · won 24-13

Upsets

Fri, Dec 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Middle TennesseevsToledo
28%
72%
31
24
✗
TOL −8.7
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Northern IllinoisvsCoastal Carolina
19%
81%
41
47
✓
CCU −13.5
–
–

Sat, Dec 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
Western KentuckyvsAppalachian State
37%
63%
59
38
✗
APP −4.6
–
–
Final
UTEPvsFresno State
14%
86%
24
31
✓
FRES −17.0
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
UABvsBYU
30%
70%
31
28
✗
BYU −8.0
–
–
Final
Eastern MichiganvsLiberty
32%
68%
20
56
✓
LIB −6.9
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
Utah StatevsOregon State
25%
75%
24
13
✗
ORST −10.2
–
–
Final
LouisianavsMarshall
53%
47%
36
21
✓
UL −1.8
–
–

Mon, Dec 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Old DominionvsTulsa
25%
75%
17
30
✓
TLSA −10.4
–
–

Tue, Dec 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Kent StatevsWyoming
40%
60%
38
52
✓
WYO −3.7
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
UTSAvsSan Diego State
52%
48%
24
38
✗
UTSA −1.4
–
–

Wed, Dec 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
MissourivsArmy
39%
61%
22
24
✓
ARMY −4.1
–
–

Thu, Dec 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
North TexasvsMiami (OH)
32%
68%
14
27
✓
M-OH −6.9
–
–

Fri, Dec 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UCFvsFlorida
30%
70%
29
17
✗
FLA −7.9
–
–

Sat, Dec 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Georgia StatevsBall State
54%
46%
51
20
✓
GAST −2.2
–
–

Mon, Dec 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Western MichiganvsNevada
25%
75%
52
24
✗
NEV −10.2
–
–

Tue, Dec 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Houstonvs#19AuburnUpset
35%
65%
17
13
✗
AUB −5.5
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
Air ForcevsLouisville
50%
50%
31
28
✗
AF −0.3
–
–
Final
Mississippi StatevsTexas TechUpset
76%
24%
7
34
✗
MSST −11.6
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
West Virginiavs#24Minnesota
30%
70%
6
18
✓
MINN −8.0
–
–

Wed, Dec 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
MarylandvsVirginia Tech
43%
57%
54
10
✗
VT −2.4
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#11Clemsonvs#16Iowa State
55%
45%
20
13
✓
CLEM −2.3
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#23Oregonvs#14Oklahoma
41%
59%
32
47
✓
OU −3.3
–
–

Thu, Dec 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
North CarolinavsSouth Carolina
66%
34%
21
38
✗
UNC −7.1
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Tennesseevs#21Purdue
43%
57%
45
48
✓
PUR −2.2
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#7WisconsinvsArizona State
65%
35%
20
13
✓
WIS −6.5
–
–

Fri, Dec 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
Wake ForestvsRutgers
75%
25%
38
10
✓
WAKE −11.3
–
–
Final
Washington StatevsCentral Michigan
73%
27%
21
24
✗
WSU −10.3
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#6Cincinnativs#3Alabama
30%
70%
6
27
✓
ALA −7.7
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#1Georgiavs#4Michigan
69%
31%
34
11
✓
UGA −8.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#13PittsburghvsMichigan StateUpset
60%
40%
21
31
✗
PITT −4.5
–
–

Sat, Jan 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 3 games

Final
#8Penn Statevs#25Arkansas
62%
38%
10
24
✗
PSU −5.5
–
–
Final
#20IowavsKentuckyUpset
57%
43%
17
20
✗
IOWA −3.3
–
–
Final
#12Oklahoma Statevs#5Notre Dame
35%
65%
37
35
✗
ND −5.7
–
–

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#10Utahvs#2Ohio State
21%
79%
45
48
✓
OSU −12.5
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#18Baylorvs#15Ole Miss
43%
57%
21
7
✗
MISS −2.2
–
–

Tue, Jan 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
LSUvsKansas State
55%
45%
20
42
✗
LSU −2.3
–
–

Mon, Jan 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#1Georgiavs#3Alabama
62%
38%
33
18
✓
UGA −5.2
–
–