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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2021

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 82 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 42

Wilder than 42% of weeks in the archive.

7 upsets against 12.8 expected

  • Biggest shockJacksonville State over Florida State2.7% chance · won 20-17
  • Runner-upStanford over USC9.2% chance · won 42-28
  • Runner-upDuquesne over Ohio10% chance · won 28-26

Upsets

Fri, Sep 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Kansas@Coastal Carolina
14%
86%
22
49
✓
CCU −16.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@Boise State
6.3%
94%
13
54
✓
BOIS −23.4
–
–

Sat, Sep 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Illinois@Virginia
34%
66%
14
42
✓
UVA −5.8
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Army
14%
86%
35
38
✓
ARMY −16.6
–
–
Final
South Carolina@East Carolina
66%
34%
20
17
✓
SC −6.9
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Tennessee
53%
47%
41
34
✓
PITT −1.6
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Minnesota
9.5%
90%
26
31
✓
MINN −20.0
–
–
Final
#18Oregon@#3Ohio StateUpset
13%
87%
35
28
✗
OSU −16.9
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Oklahoma State
23%
77%
23
28
✓
OKST −10.8
–
–
Final
#10Florida@USF
98%
1.6%
42
20
✓
FLA −34.0
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Northern Illinois
58%
42%
50
43
✓
WYO −3.7
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Virginia Tech
9.4%
91%
14
35
✓
VT −20.0
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Syracuse
62%
38%
17
7
✓
RUTG −5.4
–
–
Final
Toledo@#15Notre Dame
7.8%
92%
29
32
✓
ND −21.7
–
–

Afternoon 13 games

Final
Purdue@UConn
98%
1.7%
49
0
✓
PUR −33.6
–
–
Final
UAB@#2Georgia
1.5%
98%
7
56
✓
UGA −33.8
–
–
Final
#5Texas A&MvsColorado
88%
12%
10
7
✓
TA&M −19.0
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Florida Atlantic
23%
77%
6
38
✓
FAU −11.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@UMass
>99%
0.5%
45
28
✓
BC −41.1
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Nebraska
24%
76%
3
28
✓
NEB −10.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@#9Penn State
3.4%
97%
13
44
✓
PSU −28.1
–
–
Final
California@#22TCU
26%
74%
32
34
✓
TCU −9.2
–
–
Final
Temple@Akron
65%
35%
45
24
✓
TEM −6.5
–
–
Final
Air Force@Navy
82%
18%
23
3
✓
AF −14.8
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Bowling Green
89%
11%
22
19
✓
USA −19.4
–
–
Final
#7Iowa@#25Iowa State
72%
28%
27
17
✓
IOWA −9.3
–
–
Final
Houston@Rice
70%
30%
44
7
✓
HOU −8.7
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
#11Texas@ArkansasUpset
73%
27%
21
40
✗
TEX −10.1
–
–
Final
NC State@Mississippi State
54%
46%
10
24
✗
NCSU −2.0
–
–
Final
Texas State@FIU
52%
48%
23
17
✓
TXST −1.1
–
–
Final
North Texas@SMU
18%
82%
12
35
✓
SMU −13.8
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Miami (FL)
41%
59%
23
25
✓
MIA −2.8
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@#16Wisconsin
3.2%
97%
7
34
✓
WIS −28.5
–
–
Final
Liberty@Troy
36%
64%
21
13
✗
TROY −4.9
–
–
Final
Memphis@Arkansas State
65%
35%
55
50
✓
MEM −6.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@New Mexico
15%
85%
25
34
✓
UNM −15.8
–
–
Final
Missouri@Kentucky
40%
60%
28
35
✓
UK −3.5
–
–
Final
Georgia State@#24North Carolina
7.5%
92%
17
59
✓
UNC −22.0
–
–

Late night 6 games

Final
Vanderbilt@Colorado State
61%
39%
24
21
✓
VAN −4.8
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Arizona
55%
45%
38
14
✓
SDSU −2.6
–
–
Final
Utah@BYU
44%
56%
17
26
✓
BYU −1.8
–
–
Final
Stanford@#8USCUpset
9.2%
91%
42
28
✗
USC −20.2
–
–
Final
UNLV@#21Arizona State
1.2%
99%
10
37
✓
ASU −35.2
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Oregon State
18%
82%
27
45
✓
ORST −13.7
–
–

Sun, Sep 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Washington@#20Michigan
24%
76%
10
31
✓
MICH −10.4
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 11 · 4:00 PM ET Mercer at #1 Alabama Alabama −70.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 12:00 PM ET Alabama State at #14 Auburn Auburn −39.5 99%
Sun, Sep 12 · TBD McNeese at #19 LSU LSU −36.5 99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:30 PM ET Austin Peay at #17 Ole Miss Ole Miss −44.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 6:00 PM ET Gardner-Webb at Charlotte Charlotte −20.6 91%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET SE Louisiana at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −16.2 86%
Sat, Sep 11 · 6:30 PM ET North Carolina Central at Marshall Marshall −26.2 96%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET Hampton at Old Dominion Old Dominion −1.4 55%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET Grambling at Southern Miss Southern Miss −3.9 61%
Sat, Sep 11 · 6:00 PM ET Lamar at UTSA UTSA −21.6 92%
Sat, Sep 11 · 5:00 PM ET South Carolina State at #4 Clemson Clemson −45.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 11 · TBD North Carolina A&T at Duke Duke −17.0 87%
Sun, Sep 12 · TBD Jacksonville State at Florida State Florida State −29.8 97%
Sat, Sep 11 · 12:00 PM ET Kennesaw State at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −14.6 84%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Louisville Louisville −37.0 99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 12:00 PM ET Norfolk State at Wake Forest Wake Forest −40.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:30 PM ET Idaho at #23 Indiana Indiana −33.1 98%
Sat, Sep 11 · 12:00 PM ET Youngstown State at Michigan State Michigan State −29.0 97%
Sat, Sep 11 · 12:00 PM ET Indiana State at Northwestern Northwestern −24.8 95%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:30 PM ET Howard at Maryland Maryland −29.2 97%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET Texas Southern at Baylor Baylor −27.4 96%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET Southern Illinois at Kansas State Kansas State −31.1 98%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET Western Carolina at #6 Oklahoma Oklahoma −59.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET Stephen F. Austin at Texas Tech Texas Tech −40.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 5:00 PM ET Long Island University at West Virginia West Virginia −41.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 1:00 PM ET Morgan State at Tulane Tulane −27.3 96%
Sat, Sep 11 · 6:30 PM ET Bethune-Cookman at UCF UCF −39.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 3:30 PM ET Murray State at #12 Cincinnati Cincinnati −40.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 11 · 5:00 PM ET Illinois State at Western Michigan Western Michigan −13.1 81%
Sat, Sep 11 · 11:30 AM ET VMI at Kent State Kent State −14.5 83%
Sat, Sep 11 · 3:00 PM ET Robert Morris at Central Michigan Central Michigan −12.7 80%
Sat, Sep 11 · 7:00 PM ET Nicholls at Louisiana Louisiana −30.7 98%
Sat, Sep 11 · 2:00 PM ET Duquesne at Ohio Ohio −19.2 90%
Sat, Sep 11 · 6:00 PM ET Portland State at Washington State Washington State −28.5 97%
Fri, Sep 10 · 10:20 PM ET North Dakota at Utah State Utah State −12.8 80%
Sat, Sep 11 · 10:00 PM ET Cal Poly at Fresno State Fresno State −24.0 94%
Sat, Sep 11 · 10:30 PM ET Idaho State at Nevada Nevada −24.6 95%