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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2021

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 65 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 27

Wilder than 27% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 17.7 expected

  • Biggest shockNorth Texas over UTSA16% chance · won 45-23
  • Runner-upTulsa over SMU29% chance · won 34-31
  • Runner-upHawaii over Wyoming31% chance · won 38-14

Upsets

Wed, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Buffalo@Ball State
36%
64%
3
20
✓
BALL −5.1
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Northern Illinois
52%
48%
42
21
✓
WMU −1.5
–
–

Thu, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Fresno State@San Jose State
74%
26%
40
9
✓
FRES −10.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
#14Ole Miss@Mississippi State
56%
44%
31
21
✓
MISS −2.8
–
–

Fri, Nov 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 7 games

Final
Kansas State@Texas
41%
59%
17
22
✓
TEX −3.2
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Central Michigan
39%
61%
10
31
✓
CMU −3.9
–
–
Final
Ohio@Bowling Green
65%
35%
10
21
✗
OHIO −6.7
–
–
Final
Boise State@San Diego State
64%
36%
16
27
✗
BOIS −6.1
–
–
Final
Utah State@New Mexico
79%
21%
35
10
✓
USU −13.3
–
–
Final
#15Iowa@Nebraska
54%
46%
28
21
✓
IOWA −1.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@UAB
16%
84%
25
42
✓
UAB −15.2
–
–

Afternoon 7 games

Final
Missouri@#25Arkansas
20%
80%
17
34
✓
ARK −13.1
–
–
Final
USF@UCF
11%
89%
13
17
✓
UCF −18.9
–
–
Final
#6Cincinnati@East Carolina
84%
16%
35
13
✓
CIN −16.5
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@South Alabama
82%
18%
27
21
✓
CCU −14.9
–
–
Final
UNLV@Air Force
8.1%
92%
14
48
✓
AF −22.0
–
–
Final
Colorado@#13Utah
11%
89%
13
28
✓
UTAH −19.5
–
–
Final
TCU@#19Iowa State
20%
80%
14
48
✓
ISU −13.2
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Washington State@Washington
42%
58%
40
13
✗
WASH −2.8
–
–

Sat, Nov 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 18 games

Final
Florida State@Florida
26%
74%
21
24
✓
FLA −9.6
–
–
Final
#1Georgia@Georgia Tech
98%
1.7%
45
0
✓
UGA −34.3
–
–
Final
#23Wake Forest@Boston College
67%
33%
41
10
✓
WAKE −7.5
–
–
Final
Maryland@Rutgers
35%
65%
40
16
✗
RUTG −5.7
–
–
Final
#2Ohio State@#4Michigan
67%
33%
27
42
✗
OSU −7.3
–
–
Final
Army@Liberty
56%
44%
31
16
✓
ARMY −2.9
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#18Baylor
13%
87%
24
27
✓
BAY −17.7
–
–
Final
Houston@UConn
98%
1.8%
45
17
✓
HOU −33.9
–
–
Final
Navy@Temple
74%
26%
38
14
✓
NAVY −10.9
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Kent State
61%
39%
47
48
✗
M-OH −5.1
–
–
Final
Akron@Toledo
4.4%
96%
14
49
✓
TOL −26.9
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Duke
87%
13%
47
10
✓
MIA −18.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Rice
60%
40%
31
35
✗
LT −4.4
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Old Dominion
39%
61%
34
56
✓
ODU −4.1
–
–
Final
UTSA@North TexasUpset
84%
16%
23
45
✗
UTSA −16.1
–
–
Final
Texas State@Arkansas State
44%
56%
24
22
✗
ARST −1.8
–
–
Final
Troy@Georgia State
34%
66%
10
37
✓
GAST −6.1
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Appalachian State
4.4%
96%
3
27
✓
APP −27.0
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
FIU@Southern Miss
27%
73%
17
37
✓
USM −9.3
–
–
Final
UMass@New Mexico State
29%
71%
27
44
✓
NMSU −8.5
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Wyoming
31%
69%
38
14
✗
WYO −7.3
–
–
Final
#3Alabama@#21Auburn
77%
23%
24
22
✓
ALA −12.3
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Marshall
40%
60%
53
21
✗
MRSH −3.8
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Illinois
31%
69%
14
47
✓
ILL −7.4
–
–
Final
Indiana@#24Purdue
17%
83%
7
44
✓
PUR −14.6
–
–
Final
#8Penn State@Michigan StateUpset
62%
38%
27
30
✗
PSU −5.2
–
–
Final
Oregon State@#17Oregon
32%
68%
29
38
✓
ORE −6.9
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Tennessee
4.7%
95%
21
45
✓
TENN −26.5
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Virginia
38%
62%
29
24
✗
UVA −4.2
–
–
Final
#7Wisconsin@MinnesotaUpset
65%
35%
13
23
✗
WIS −6.5
–
–
Final
Tulsa@SMU
29%
71%
34
31
✗
SMU −8.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Louisiana
4.1%
96%
16
21
✓
UL −27.5
–
–
Final
Arizona@Arizona State
6.6%
93%
15
38
✓
ASU −23.8
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
Kentucky@Louisville
42%
58%
52
21
✗
LOU −2.7
–
–
Final
#12Clemson@South Carolina
75%
25%
30
0
✓
CLEM −11.1
–
–
Final
#16Pittsburgh@Syracuse
77%
23%
31
14
✓
PITT −12.1
–
–
Final
#11Oklahoma@#10Oklahoma State
42%
58%
33
37
✓
OKST −2.8
–
–
Final
Tulane@Memphis
40%
60%
28
33
✓
MEM −3.4
–
–
Final
#5Notre Dame@Stanford
90%
9.9%
45
14
✓
ND −20.9
–
–
Final
Nevada@Colorado State
72%
28%
52
10
✓
NEV −9.8
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
California@#22UCLA
28%
72%
14
42
✓
UCLA −9.0
–
–
Final
BYU@USC
50%
50%
35
31
✓
BYU −0.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
North Carolina@#20NC State
33%
67%
30
34
✓
NCSU −6.7
–
–

Sun, Nov 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#9Texas A&M@LSUUpset
66%
34%
24
27
✗
TA&M −7.2
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Florida Atlantic
37%
63%
27
17
✗
FAU −4.8
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Kansas
89%
11%
34
28
✓
WVU −20.0
–
–