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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 2021

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 57

Wilder than 57% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 15.0 expected

  • Biggest shockBowling Green over Buffalo12% chance · won 56-44
  • Runner-upWashington State over Arizona State17% chance · won 34-21
  • Runner-upMiami (FL) over Pittsburgh23% chance · won 38-34

Upsets

Thu, Oct 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
USF@East Carolina
23%
77%
14
29
✓
ECU −11.6
–
–
Final
Troy@Coastal Carolina
11%
89%
28
35
✓
CCU −18.8
–
–

Fri, Oct 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Navy@Tulsa
31%
69%
20
17
✗
TLSA −7.3
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
UNLV@Nevada
8.1%
92%
20
51
✓
NEV −21.9
–
–

Sat, Oct 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 14 games

Final
Virginia Tech@Georgia Tech
45%
55%
26
17
✗
GT −1.5
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@#13PittsburghUpset
22%
78%
38
34
✗
PITT −11.6
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Illinois
51%
49%
20
14
✓
RUTG −0.9
–
–
Final
Indiana@Maryland
48%
52%
35
38
✓
MD −0.1
–
–
Final
#8Iowa@#19Wisconsin
54%
46%
7
27
✗
IOWA −2.2
–
–
Final
#4Michigan@#22Michigan State
67%
33%
33
37
✗
MICH −7.4
–
–
Final
UMass@Liberty
1.8%
98%
17
62
✓
LIB −33.4
–
–
Final
#14Texas@#25Baylor
54%
46%
24
31
✗
TEX −2.2
–
–
Final
UCF@Temple
87%
13%
49
7
✓
UCF −18.7
–
–
Final
#5Cincinnati@Tulane
94%
5.8%
31
12
✓
CIN −25.6
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@BuffaloUpset
12%
88%
56
44
✗
BUF −18.1
–
–
Final
Texas State@Louisiana
11%
89%
0
45
✓
UL −18.9
–
–
Final
North Texas@Rice
40%
60%
30
24
✗
RICE −3.7
–
–
Final
#20Iowa State@West VirginiaUpset
64%
36%
31
38
✗
ISU −6.2
–
–

Afternoon 21 games

Final
Missouri@Vanderbilt
75%
25%
37
28
✓
MIZ −11.1
–
–
Final
Washington State@#18Arizona StateUpset
17%
83%
34
21
✗
ASU −14.6
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Utah State
43%
57%
31
51
✓
USU −2.3
–
–
Final
#1Georgiavs#6Florida
83%
17%
34
7
✓
UGA −15.5
–
–
Final
FIU@Marshall
6.3%
94%
0
38
✓
MRSH −24.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Old Dominion
61%
39%
20
23
✗
LT −5.0
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Middle Tennessee
22%
78%
10
35
✓
MTSU −11.9
–
–
Final
Florida State@#16Clemson
19%
81%
20
30
✓
CLEM −13.3
–
–
Final
Boston College@Syracuse
45%
55%
6
21
✓
SYR −1.5
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Northwestern
71%
29%
41
14
✓
MINN −9.1
–
–
Final
Purdue@Nebraska
40%
60%
28
23
✗
NEB −3.6
–
–
Final
TCU@Kansas State
48%
52%
12
31
✓
KSU −0.4
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#11Oklahoma
11%
89%
21
52
✓
OU −18.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Appalachian State
3.8%
96%
28
59
✓
APP −28.2
–
–
Final
Colorado@#17Oregon
12%
88%
29
52
✓
ORE −18.8
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Western Kentucky
28%
72%
13
45
✓
WKU −8.7
–
–
Final
Duke@#21Wake Forest
8.2%
92%
7
45
✓
WAKE −21.9
–
–
Final
Wyoming@San Jose State
41%
59%
21
27
✓
SJSU −3.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@South Alabama
30%
70%
13
31
✓
USA −7.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@Florida Atlantic
18%
82%
25
28
✓
FAU −14.5
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Georgia Southern
63%
37%
21
14
✓
GAST −5.6
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
#12Ole Miss@#15Auburn
47%
53%
20
31
✓
AUB −0.7
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Mississippi State
47%
53%
17
31
✓
MSST −0.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@Oklahoma State
2.3%
98%
3
55
✓
OKST −31.7
–
–
Final
SMU@Houston
42%
58%
37
44
✓
HOU −2.8
–
–
Final
Oregon State@California
57%
43%
25
39
✗
ORST −3.4
–
–
Final
Arizona@USC
5.2%
95%
34
41
✓
USC −25.6
–
–
Final
Boise State@Colorado State
76%
24%
28
19
✓
BOIS −12.0
–
–
Final
Louisville@NC State
35%
65%
13
28
✓
NCSU −5.7
–
–
Final
North Carolina@#9Notre Dame
26%
74%
34
44
✓
ND −9.7
–
–
Final
#10Penn State@#3Ohio State
18%
82%
24
33
✓
OSU −14.4
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
#23UCLA@UtahUpset
50%
50%
24
44
✓
UCLA −0.5
–
–
Final
Virginia@BYU
51%
49%
49
66
✗
UVA −1.0
–
–
Final
Washington@Stanford
46%
54%
20
13
✗
STAN −1.1
–
–
Final
Fresno State@San Diego State
41%
59%
30
20
✗
SDSU −3.1
–
–