The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2021

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 61 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 37

Wilder than 37% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 16.6 expected

  • Biggest shockSouth Carolina over Florida17% chance · won 40-17
  • Runner-upArizona over California17% chance · won 10-3
  • Runner-upIllinois over Minnesota19% chance · won 14-6

Upsets

Tue, Nov 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
Ball State@Akron
85%
15%
31
25
✓
BALL −17.0
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ohio
72%
28%
33
35
✗
M-OH −9.9
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Toledo
30%
70%
52
49
✗
TOL −7.7
–
–

Wed, Nov 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Central Michigan@Western Michigan
27%
73%
42
30
✗
WMU −9.5
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Kent State
42%
58%
47
52
✓
KENT −2.7
–
–

Thu, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Georgia State@Louisiana
21%
79%
17
21
✓
UL −12.5
–
–

Fri, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Virginia Tech@Boston College
52%
48%
3
17
✗
VT −1.5
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#25Utah@Stanford
62%
38%
52
7
✓
UTAH −5.2
–
–

Sat, Nov 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
ArmyvsAir Force
42%
58%
21
14
✗
AF −2.7
–
–
Final
Missouri@#1Georgia
0.7%
99%
6
43
✓
UGA −39.3
–
–
Final
Liberty@#15Ole Miss
15%
85%
14
27
✓
MISS −16.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@UAB
20%
80%
38
52
✓
UAB −13.0
–
–
Final
#18Pittsburgh@Duke
91%
9.1%
54
29
✓
PITT −21.7
–
–
Final
#19Wake Forest@North CarolinaUpset
56%
44%
55
58
✗
WAKE −2.8
–
–
Final
Illinois@#24MinnesotaUpset
19%
81%
14
6
✗
MINN −13.4
–
–
Final
#2Ohio State@Nebraska
86%
14%
26
17
✓
OSU −17.3
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Kansas
94%
5.6%
35
10
✓
KSU −25.8
–
–
Final
SMU@Memphis
63%
37%
25
28
✗
SMU −5.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Miami (FL)
30%
70%
30
33
✓
MIA −7.8
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Arkansas State
91%
8.7%
48
14
✓
APP −22.1
–
–

Afternoon 22 games

Final
North Texas@Southern Miss
54%
46%
38
14
✓
UNT −2.0
–
–
Final
Temple@East Carolina
11%
89%
3
45
✓
ECU −19.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Texas State
35%
65%
19
27
✓
TXST −5.5
–
–
Final
California@ArizonaUpset
83%
17%
3
10
✗
CAL −15.6
–
–
Final
#11Auburn@#7Texas A&M
40%
60%
3
20
✓
TA&M −3.6
–
–
Final
Rice@Charlotte
33%
67%
24
31
✓
CLT −6.7
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Western Kentucky
27%
73%
21
48
✓
WKU −9.1
–
–
Final
Navy@#6Notre Dame
3.3%
97%
6
34
✓
ND −29.2
–
–
Final
#9Penn State@Maryland
79%
21%
31
14
✓
PSU −13.1
–
–
Final
#20Michigan State@PurdueUpset
52%
48%
29
40
✗
MSU −1.1
–
–
Final
#12Wisconsin@Rutgers
72%
28%
52
3
✓
WIS −9.8
–
–
Final
#22Baylor@TCUUpset
61%
39%
28
30
✗
BAY −5.1
–
–
Final
#23Oklahoma State@West Virginia
56%
44%
24
3
✓
OKST −3.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#5Cincinnati
3.9%
96%
20
28
✓
CIN −28.0
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Troy
43%
57%
24
31
✓
TROY −2.3
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Wyoming
53%
47%
17
31
✗
CSU −1.7
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Arkansas
38%
62%
28
31
✓
ARK −4.3
–
–
Final
NC State@Florida State
62%
38%
28
14
✓
NCSU −5.5
–
–
Final
Tulane@UCF
16%
84%
10
14
✓
UCF −15.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@New Mexico State
88%
12%
35
13
✓
USU −18.8
–
–
Final
Marshall@Florida Atlantic
53%
47%
28
13
✓
MRSH −1.6
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Georgia Southern
88%
12%
28
8
✓
CCU −19.6
–
–

Prime time 13 games

Final
LSU@#3Alabama
8.0%
92%
14
20
✓
ALA −22.1
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Kentucky
49%
51%
45
42
✗
TENN −0.1
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@FIU
59%
41%
47
24
✓
ODU −4.2
–
–
Final
#13Iowa@Northwestern
84%
16%
17
12
✓
IOWA −16.5
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Colorado
68%
32%
34
37
✗
ORST −8.2
–
–
Final
Boise State@Fresno State
55%
44%
40
14
✓
BOIS −2.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@New Mexico
45%
55%
31
17
✗
UNM −1.6
–
–
Final
#10Florida@South CarolinaUpset
83%
17%
17
40
✗
FLA −15.8
–
–
Final
#16Clemson@Louisville
68%
32%
30
24
✓
CLEM −8.1
–
–
Final
Indiana@#4Michigan
11%
89%
7
29
✓
MICH −19.1
–
–
Final
#17Texas@#21Iowa State
48%
52%
7
30
✓
ISU −0.1
–
–
Final
Houston@USF
85%
15%
54
42
✓
HOU −16.7
–
–
Final
#14Oregon@Washington
66%
34%
26
16
✓
ORE −7.2
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
San Jose State@Nevada
18%
82%
24
27
✓
NEV −14.5
–
–
Final
UTSA@UTEP
81%
19%
44
23
✓
UTSA −14.4
–
–
Final
USC@Arizona State
39%
61%
16
31
✓
ASU −4.1
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Hawaii
76%
24%
17
10
✓
SDSU −11.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 6 · 3:30 PM ET Rhode Island at UMass Rhode Island −9.7 72%
Sat, Nov 6 · 3:30 PM ET Idaho State at BYU BYU −39.4 99%