The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 2021

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 71

Wilder than 71% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 15.4 expected

  • Biggest shockRice over UAB6.7% chance · won 30-24
  • Runner-upIllinois over Penn State8.1% chance · won 20-18
  • Runner-upNew Mexico over Wyoming14% chance · won 14-3

Upsets

Wed, Oct 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Coastal Carolina@Appalachian State
50%
50%
27
30
✗
CCU −0.5
–
–

Thu, Oct 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
Florida Atlantic@Charlotte
62%
38%
38
9
✓
FAU −5.4
–
–
Final
Tulane@SMU
26%
74%
26
55
✓
SMU −9.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Arkansas State
88%
12%
28
27
✓
UL −19.2
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
San Jose State@UNLV
67%
33%
27
20
✓
SJSU −7.3
–
–

Fri, Oct 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
Middle Tennessee@UConn
77%
23%
44
13
✓
MTSU −12.5
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
Memphis@UCF
30%
70%
7
24
✓
UCF −7.7
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Utah State
51%
49%
24
26
✗
CSU −1.0
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Washington@Arizona
88%
12%
21
16
✓
WASH −19.3
–
–

Sat, Oct 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Wake Forest@Army
63%
37%
70
56
✓
WAKE −5.8
–
–
Final
UMass@Florida State
1.5%
98%
3
59
✓
FSU −34.4
–
–
Final
Illinois@#6Penn StateUpset
8.1%
92%
20
18
✗
PSU −22.0
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#5Michigan
7.5%
92%
7
33
✓
MICH −22.7
–
–
Final
#9Oklahoma@Kansas
99%
1.0%
35
23
✓
OU −37.7
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Texas Tech
62%
38%
25
24
✓
KSU −5.6
–
–
Final
#4Cincinnati@Navy
98%
2.0%
27
20
✓
CIN −33.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Bowling Green
73%
27%
55
24
✓
EMU −10.1
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Central Michigan
43%
57%
39
38
✗
CMU −2.4
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Virginia Tech
39%
61%
41
36
✗
VT −4.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ohio
59%
41%
34
27
✓
KENT −4.0
–
–
Final
Texas State@Georgia State
27%
73%
16
28
✓
GAST −9.1
–
–

Afternoon 17 games

Final
#22Wisconsin@#24Purdue
46%
54%
30
13
✗
PUR −1.2
–
–
Final
LSU@#15Ole Miss
33%
67%
17
31
✓
MISS −6.3
–
–
Final
Rice@UABUpset
6.7%
93%
30
24
✗
UAB −23.6
–
–
Final
#12Clemson@#16Pittsburgh
48%
52%
17
27
✓
PITT −0.5
–
–
Final
Maryland@Minnesota
29%
71%
16
34
✓
MINN −8.1
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#19Iowa State
37%
63%
21
24
✓
ISU −4.7
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ball State
43%
57%
24
17
✗
BALL −2.5
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Toledo
49%
51%
15
34
✓
PK
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Akron
77%
23%
45
10
✓
BUF −12.4
–
–
Final
Colorado@California
39%
61%
3
26
✓
CAL −3.8
–
–
Final
#18Oregon@#21UCLA
49%
51%
34
31
✗
PK
–
–
Final
BYU@Washington State
56%
44%
21
19
✓
BYU −3.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico@WyomingUpset
14%
86%
14
3
✗
WYO −16.5
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Vanderbilt
84%
16%
45
6
✓
MSST −16.7
–
–
Final
Liberty@North Texas
86%
14%
35
26
✓
LIB −17.4
–
–
Final
Boston College@Louisville
44%
56%
14
28
✓
LOU −1.7
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Houston
28%
72%
24
31
✓
HOU −9.0
–
–

Prime time 14 games

Final
Tennessee@#2Alabama
11%
89%
24
52
✓
ALA −19.4
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@FIU
83%
17%
34
19
✓
WKU −15.4
–
–
Final
UTSA@Louisiana Tech
73%
27%
45
16
✓
UTSA −10.4
–
–
Final
Temple@USF
45%
55%
14
34
✓
USF −1.5
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Louisiana-MonroeUpset
80%
20%
31
41
✗
USA −13.8
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Air Force
36%
64%
20
14
✗
AF −5.1
–
–
Final
Nevada@Fresno State
44%
56%
32
34
✓
FRES −1.9
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#11Texas A&M
13%
87%
14
44
✓
TA&M −17.5
–
–
Final
NC State@Miami (FL)
57%
43%
30
31
✗
NCSU −3.5
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Virginia
33%
67%
40
48
✓
UVA −6.5
–
–
Final
#23USC@#10Notre Dame
33%
67%
16
31
✓
ND −6.7
–
–
Final
#3Ohio State@Indiana
89%
11%
54
7
✓
OSU −20.2
–
–
Final
West Virginia@TCU
34%
66%
29
17
✗
TCU −6.0
–
–
Final
Utah@Oregon State
51%
49%
34
42
✗
UTAH −0.8
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
New Mexico State@Hawaii
9.6%
90%
34
48
✓
HAW −20.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 23 · 12:00 PM ET Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Arkansas Arkansas −34.1 98%