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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2021

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 68

Wilder than 68% of weeks in the archive.

19 upsets against 15.1 expected

  • Biggest shockFlorida State over North Carolina18% chance · won 35-25
  • Runner-upTexas A&M over Alabama23% chance · won 41-38
  • Runner-upNorthern Illinois over Toledo24% chance · won 22-20

Upsets

Thu, Oct 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Houston@Tulane
66%
34%
40
22
✓
HOU −6.8
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Arkansas State
90%
10%
52
20
✓
CCU −21.0
–
–

Fri, Oct 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Charlotte@FIU
73%
27%
45
33
✓
CLT −10.0
–
–
Final
Temple@#6Cincinnati
2.3%
98%
3
52
✓
CIN −33.3
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Stanford@#14Arizona State
30%
70%
10
28
✓
ASU −8.7
–
–

Sat, Oct 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 11 games

Final
Vanderbilt@#8Florida
2.1%
98%
0
42
✓
FLA −33.7
–
–
Final
#19Arkansas@#13Ole Miss
41%
59%
51
52
✓
MISS −3.9
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Tennessee
34%
66%
20
45
✓
TENN −6.9
–
–
Final
Maryland@#3Ohio State
9.6%
90%
17
66
✓
OSU −21.8
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Rutgers
52%
48%
31
13
✓
MSU −0.8
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Baylor
47%
53%
20
45
✓
BAY −1.5
–
–
Final
#11Oklahomavs#9Texas
46%
54%
55
48
✗
TEX −1.6
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@ToledoUpset
24%
76%
22
20
✗
TOL −11.9
–
–
Final
Akron@Bowling Green
30%
70%
35
20
✗
BGSU −8.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Duke
66%
34%
31
27
✓
GT −6.6
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Marshall
11%
89%
13
20
✓
MRSH −20.7
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Virginia@Louisville
50%
50%
34
33
✗
LOU −0.3
–
–
Final
#1Georgia@#16Auburn
87%
13%
34
10
✓
UGA −18.3
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@UAB
51%
49%
14
31
✗
FAU −0.2
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Liberty
23%
77%
13
41
✓
LIB −12.2
–
–
Final
Florida State@#23North CarolinaUpset
18%
82%
35
25
✗
UNC −15.0
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Syracuse
73%
27%
40
37
✓
WAKE −10.0
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Illinois
68%
32%
24
0
✓
WIS −7.6
–
–
Final
UConn@UMass
65%
35%
13
27
✗
CONN −6.5
–
–
Final
SMU@Navy
80%
20%
31
24
✓
SMU −14.0
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Eastern Michigan
55%
45%
12
13
✗
M-OH −2.0
–
–
Final
Ball State@Western MichiganUpset
24%
76%
45
20
✗
WMU −11.7
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ohio
62%
38%
30
27
✓
CMU −5.2
–
–
Final
Boise State@BYU
45%
55%
26
17
✗
BYU −2.1
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Colorado State
58%
42%
14
32
✗
SJSU −3.1
–
–
Final
North Texas@Missouri
14%
86%
35
48
✓
MIZ −18.3
–
–
Final
#7Penn State@#5Iowa
40%
60%
20
23
✓
IOWA −4.1
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Washington State
73%
27%
24
31
✗
ORST −10.1
–
–
Final
East Carolina@UCF
33%
67%
16
20
✓
UCF −7.5
–
–

Prime time 12 games

Final
UTEP@Southern Miss
50%
50%
26
13
✗
USM −0.1
–
–
Final
UTSA@Western Kentucky
61%
39%
52
46
✓
UTSA −4.7
–
–
Final
TCU@Texas Tech
66%
34%
52
31
✓
TCU −6.9
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Kent State
50%
50%
38
48
✗
BUF −0.1
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Troy
37%
63%
24
27
✓
TROY −5.8
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Texas State
65%
35%
31
33
✗
USA −6.3
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Air Force
23%
77%
14
24
✓
AF −12.2
–
–
Final
#24LSU@KentuckyUpset
61%
39%
21
42
✗
LSU −4.4
–
–
Final
#12Notre Dame@Virginia Tech
71%
29%
32
29
✓
ND −9.3
–
–
Final
#4Michigan@#25Nebraska
70%
30%
32
29
✓
MICH −8.6
–
–
Final
Memphis@Tulsa
54%
46%
29
35
✗
MEM −1.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@San Diego State
8.4%
92%
7
31
✓
SDSU −22.9
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
#22UCLA@Arizona
92%
8.3%
34
16
✓
UCLA −22.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Nevada
3.1%
97%
28
55
✓
NEV −31.0
–
–

Sun, Oct 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#2Alabama@#17Texas A&MUpset
77%
23%
38
41
✗
ALA −11.9
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Louisiana-Monroe
77%
23%
55
21
✓
GAST −12.1
–
–
Final
Utah@#18USCUpset
25%
75%
42
26
✗
USC −11.1
–
–