The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2021

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 61 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 91

Wilder than 91% of weeks in the archive.

21 upsets against 17.1 expected

  • Biggest shockNavy over UCF9.1% chance · won 34-30
  • Runner-upBall State over Army15% chance · won 28-16
  • Runner-upKentucky over Florida19% chance · won 20-13

Upsets

Thu, Sep 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Virginia@Miami (FL)
45%
55%
30
28
✗
MIA −2.0
–
–

Fri, Oct 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Houston@Tulsa
52%
48%
45
10
✓
HOU −0.6
–
–
Final
BYU@Utah State
79%
21%
34
20
✓
BYU −13.2
–
–

Sat, Oct 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 17 games

Final
#17Arkansas@#1Georgia
11%
89%
0
37
✓
UGA −20.5
–
–
Final
Tennessee@Missouri
50%
50%
62
24
✗
MIZ −0.2
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Illinois
26%
74%
14
24
✓
ILL −10.6
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Georgia Tech
50%
50%
52
21
✓
PITT −0.1
–
–
Final
Duke@#24North Carolina
19%
81%
7
38
✓
UNC −14.6
–
–
Final
#5Michigan@#21Wisconsin
63%
37%
38
17
✓
MICH −5.4
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Purdue
36%
64%
20
13
✗
PUR −6.3
–
–
Final
Toledo@UMass
95%
5.2%
45
7
✓
TOL −26.9
–
–
Final
#6Texas@TCU
69%
31%
32
27
✓
TEX −8.0
–
–
Final
Memphis@Temple
73%
27%
31
34
✗
MEM −10.1
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Buffalo
59%
41%
24
17
✓
WMU −3.5
–
–
Final
Louisville@#23Wake Forest
28%
72%
34
37
✓
WAKE −9.7
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Georgia State
77%
23%
45
16
✓
APP −12.3
–
–
Final
#20USC@Colorado
77%
23%
37
14
✓
USC −12.0
–
–
Final
#10Cincinnati@#8Notre Dame
44%
56%
24
13
✗
ND −2.5
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Northern Illinois
59%
41%
20
27
✗
EMU −3.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Coastal Carolina
4.2%
96%
6
59
✓
CCU −28.8
–
–

Afternoon 23 games

Final
#11Ole Miss@#2Alabama
25%
75%
21
42
✓
ALA −11.3
–
–
Final
Troy@South Carolina
18%
82%
14
23
✓
SC −15.4
–
–
Final
FIU@Florida Atlantic
14%
86%
21
58
✓
FAU −18.2
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Florida State
47%
53%
30
33
✓
FSU −1.5
–
–
Final
#3Ohio State@Rutgers
75%
25%
52
13
✓
OSU −11.2
–
–
Final
#12Oklahoma@Kansas State
70%
30%
37
31
✓
OU −8.5
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@West VirginiaUpset
21%
79%
23
20
✗
WVU −13.3
–
–
Final
UCF@NavyUpset
91%
9.1%
30
34
✗
UCF −22.0
–
–
Final
Tulane@East Carolina
54%
46%
29
52
✗
TULN −1.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Miami (OH)
39%
61%
17
28
✓
M-OH −4.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@Akron
58%
42%
34
17
✓
OHIO −3.4
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Kent State
18%
82%
20
27
✓
KENT −15.0
–
–
Final
#15Oregon@StanfordUpset
69%
31%
24
31
✗
ORE −8.0
–
–
Final
Nevada@Boise StateUpset
23%
77%
41
31
✗
BOIS −12.4
–
–
Final
USF@SMU
15%
85%
17
41
✓
SMU −17.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Georgia Southern
53%
47%
33
59
✗
ARST −1.2
–
–
Final
Army@Ball StateUpset
85%
15%
16
28
✗
ARMY −17.4
–
–
Final
Washington State@California
26%
74%
21
6
✗
CAL −10.6
–
–
Final
#4Florida@KentuckyUpset
81%
19%
13
20
✗
FLA −14.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@NC State
13%
87%
27
34
✓
NCSU −19.0
–
–
Final
UNLV@UTSA
8.3%
92%
17
24
✓
UTSA −23.0
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Rice
47%
53%
19
24
✓
RICE −1.4
–
–
Final
Air Force@New Mexico
88%
12%
38
10
✓
AF −19.1
–
–

Prime time 13 games

Final
Mississippi State@#14Texas A&MUpset
24%
76%
26
22
✗
TA&M −12.1
–
–
Final
Marshall@Middle TennesseeUpset
77%
23%
28
34
✗
MRSH −12.1
–
–
Final
Liberty@UAB
32%
68%
36
12
✗
UAB −8.0
–
–
Final
Kansas@#25Iowa State
3.3%
97%
7
59
✓
ISU −30.6
–
–
Final
Baylor@Oklahoma State
46%
54%
14
24
✓
OKST −1.6
–
–
Final
UConn@Vanderbilt
18%
82%
28
30
✓
VAN −15.2
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Michigan State
17%
83%
31
48
✓
MSU −16.1
–
–
Final
Boston College@#7Clemson
21%
78%
13
19
✓
CLEM −13.2
–
–
Final
Indiana@#13Penn State
24%
76%
0
24
✓
PSU −11.5
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Nebraska
30%
70%
7
56
✓
NEB −8.8
–
–
Final
#18Auburn@#19LSU
48%
52%
24
19
✗
LSU −1.0
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@UTEP
42%
58%
21
28
✓
UTEP −3.4
–
–
Final
Washington@Oregon State
41%
59%
24
27
✓
ORST −3.8
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
#22Arizona State@#16UCLA
38%
62%
42
23
✗
UCLA −5.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@San Jose State
5.2%
95%
31
37
✓
SJSU −27.0
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Hawaii
73%
27%
24
27
✗
FRES −10.2
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#9Iowa@Maryland
66%
34%
51
14
✓
IOWA −6.8
–
–

Sun, Oct 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Louisiana@South Alabama
67%
33%
20
18
✓
UL −7.4
–
–