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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2021

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 66 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 12

Wilder than 12% of weeks in the archive.

14 upsets against 15.5 expected

  • Biggest shockSouthern Miss over Louisiana Tech18% chance · won 35-19
  • Runner-upMissouri over Florida25% chance · won 24-23
  • Runner-upSouth Carolina over Auburn28% chance · won 21-17

Upsets

Tue, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Western Michigan@Eastern Michigan
47%
53%
21
22
✓
EMU −0.7
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Miami (OH)
9.6%
90%
7
34
✓
M-OH −20.5
–
–

Wed, Nov 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Toledo@Ohio
74%
26%
35
23
✓
TOL −10.9
–
–

Thu, Nov 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Louisville@Duke
85%
15%
62
22
✓
LOU −16.8
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Northern Illinois@Buffalo
46%
54%
33
27
✗
BUF −1.3
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ball State
43%
57%
37
17
✗
BALL −2.2
–
–

Fri, Nov 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 4 games

Final
Southern Miss@Louisiana TechUpset
18%
82%
35
19
✗
LT −14.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@Houston
22%
78%
13
31
✓
HOU −11.9
–
–
Final
Arizona@Washington State
17%
83%
18
44
✓
WSU −14.9
–
–
Final
Air Force@Nevada
48%
52%
41
39
✗
NEV −0.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
San Diego State@UNLV
83%
17%
28
20
✓
SDSU −15.9
–
–

Sat, Nov 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
New Mexico State@Kentucky
1.2%
99%
16
56
✓
UK −35.9
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Western Kentucky
31%
69%
17
52
✓
WKU −7.3
–
–
Final
Florida State@Boston College
44%
56%
26
23
✗
BC −2.1
–
–
Final
#18Wake Forest@#15Clemson
42%
58%
27
48
✓
CLEM −2.8
–
–
Final
#22Michigan State@#2Ohio State
11%
89%
7
56
✓
OSU −19.0
–
–
Final
PurduevsNorthwestern
80%
20%
32
14
✓
PUR −13.7
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#9Penn State
17%
83%
0
28
✓
PSU −15.0
–
–
Final
UMass@Army
0.4%
>99%
17
33
✓
ARMY −42.6
–
–
Final
#19Iowa State@#13Oklahoma
39%
61%
21
28
✓
OU −4.0
–
–
Final
Texas@West Virginia
58%
42%
23
31
✗
TEX −3.8
–
–
Final
USF@Tulane
33%
67%
14
45
✓
TULN −6.7
–
–
Final
Kent State@Akron
72%
28%
38
0
✓
KENT −9.8
–
–
Final
Texas State@Coastal Carolina
5.2%
95%
21
35
✓
CCU −25.7
–
–
Final
Illinois@#14Iowa
18%
82%
23
33
✓
IOWA −14.4
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Georgia State
17%
83%
20
28
✓
GAST −14.6
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#5Notre Dame
8.6%
91%
0
55
✓
ND −21.5
–
–

Afternoon 22 games

Final
Washington@Colorado
65%
35%
17
20
✗
WASH −6.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#3Alabama
12%
88%
35
42
✓
ALA −18.1
–
–
Final
Marshall@Charlotte
82%
18%
49
28
✓
MRSH −15.1
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Middle Tennessee
33%
67%
24
17
✗
MTSU −6.4
–
–
Final
UAB@UTSA
34%
66%
31
34
✓
UTSA −6.1
–
–
Final
Virginia@#16Pittsburgh
25%
75%
38
48
✓
PITT −10.4
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Indiana
68%
32%
35
14
✓
MINN −8.1
–
–
Final
#4Michigan@Maryland
87%
13%
59
18
✓
MICH −18.7
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#6Wisconsin
24%
76%
28
35
✓
WIS −10.9
–
–
Final
SMU@#7Cincinnati
19%
82%
14
48
✓
CIN −13.8
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Navy
69%
31%
38
35
✓
ECU −8.5
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Troy
82%
18%
45
7
✓
APP −15.2
–
–
Final
#25Florida@MissouriUpset
75%
25%
23
24
✗
FLA −11.2
–
–
Final
Rice@UTEP
30%
70%
28
38
✓
UTEP −8.0
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#24NC State
20%
80%
17
41
✓
NCSU −12.9
–
–
Final
UConn@UCF
1.7%
98%
17
49
✓
UCF −33.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Liberty
46%
54%
42
14
✗
LIB −1.0
–
–
Final
Kansas@TCU
7.2%
93%
28
31
✓
TCU −23.0
–
–
Final
Temple@Tulsa
12%
88%
10
44
✓
TLSA −18.4
–
–
Final
BYU@Georgia Southern
92%
8.0%
34
17
✓
BYU −22.9
–
–
Final
UCLA@USC
50%
50%
62
33
✓
UCLA −0.6
–
–
Final
#21Baylor@Kansas State
54%
46%
20
10
✓
BAY −2.2
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
Vanderbilt@#11Ole Miss
1.9%
98%
17
31
✓
MISS −33.1
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Tennessee
7.7%
92%
14
60
✓
TENN −22.4
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Miami (FL)
38%
62%
26
38
✓
MIA −4.4
–
–
Final
#12Oregon@#20Utah
50%
50%
7
38
✓
ORE −0.4
–
–
Final
#10Oklahoma State@Texas Tech
83%
17%
23
0
✓
OKST −15.6
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Utah State
32%
68%
44
17
✗
USU −6.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@LSU
1.5%
98%
14
27
✓
LSU −34.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Boise State
2.1%
98%
0
37
✓
BOIS −32.3
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
#23Arizona State@Oregon StateUpset
57%
43%
10
24
✗
ASU −3.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Hawaii
53%
47%
45
50
✗
CSU −1.8
–
–

Sun, Nov 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#17Auburn@South CarolinaUpset
72%
28%
17
21
✗
AUB −10.0
–
–
Final
North Texas@FIU
70%
30%
49
7
✓
UNT −8.9
–
–
Final
California@Stanford
51%
49%
41
11
✓
CAL −0.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 20 · 12:00 PM ET Charleston Southern at #1 Georgia Georgia −59.8 >99%
Sat, Nov 20 · 12:00 PM ET Tennessee State at Mississippi State Mississippi State −33.6 98%
Sat, Nov 20 · 12:00 PM ET Prairie View A&M at #8 Texas A&M Texas A&M −41.2 >99%
Sat, Nov 20 · 12:00 PM ET Wofford at North Carolina North Carolina −32.4 98%