Week 1 slate, 2021

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 89 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

No games match.

Sat, Aug 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final

Nebraska@Illinois

50%
50%

22
30

✓

NEB −0.5

–

–

Final

UConn@Fresno State

15%
85%

0
45

✓

FRES −15.5

–

–

Afternoon 1 game

Final

Hawaii@#25UCLA

14%
86%

10
44

✓

UCLA −16.0

–

–

Prime time 1 game

Final

UTEP@New Mexico State

57%
43%

30
3

✓

UTEP −3.4

–

–

Thu, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final

Boise State@UCF

37%
63%

31
36

✓

UCF −4.5

–

–

Final

USF@NC State

14%
86%

0
45

✓

NCSU −16.7

–

–

Final

East Carolina@Appalachian State

30%
70%

19
33

✓

APP −7.7

–

–

Fri, Sep 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final

#23North Carolina@Virginia TechUpset

56%
44%

10
17

✗

UNC −2.9

–

–

Prime time 3 games

Final

Duke@Charlotte

49%
51%

28
31

✓

DUKE −0.3

–

–

Final

Old Dominion@Wake Forest

7.1%
93%

10
42

✓

WAKE −22.5

–

–

Final

Michigan State@Northwestern

32%
68%

38
21

✗

NU −6.8

–

–

Time TBD 2 games

Final

Bowling Green@Tennessee

2.8%
97%

6
38

✓

TENN −29.5

–

–

Final

#3Ohio State@Minnesota

78%
22%

45
31

✓

OSU −12.4

–

–

Sat, Sep 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 9 games

Final

Louisiana-Monroe@Kentucky

3.2%
97%

10
45

✓

UK −28.5

–

–

Final

Western Michigan@Michigan

14%
86%

14
47

✓

MICH −16.3

–

–

Final

#10Penn State@#12Wisconsin

42%
58%

16
10

✗

WIS −2.8

–

–

Final

Temple@Rutgers

16%
84%

14
61

✓

RUTG −14.8

–

–

Final

StanfordvsKansas State

50%
50%

7
24

✗

STAN −0.7

–

–

Final

Tulane@#4Oklahoma

8.9%
91%

35
40

✓

OU −20.5

–

–

Final

Army@Georgia State

52%
48%

43
10

✓

ARMY −1.3

–

–

Final

Rice@Arkansas

13%
87%

17
38

✓

ARK −16.7

–

–

Final

Fresno State@#19Oregon

13%
87%

24
31

✓

ORE −17.1

–

–

Afternoon 10 games

Final

#1AlabamavsMiami (FL)

86%
14%

44
13

✓

ALA −17.0

–

–

Final

Marshall@Navy

53%
47%

49
7

✓

MRSH −1.8

–

–

Final

#18Indiana@#17Iowa

40%
60%

6
34

✓

IOWA −3.3

–

–

Final

West Virginia@Maryland

48%
52%

24
30

✓

MD −0.4

–

–

Final

Miami (OH)@#20Cincinnati

9.9%
90%

14
49

✓

CIN −19.6

–

–

Final

Louisiana Tech@Mississippi State

15%
85%

34
35

✓

MSST −15.9

–

–

Final

Central Michigan@Missouri

15%
85%

24
34

✓

MIZ −15.3

–

–

Final

UMass@Pittsburgh

0.9%
99%

7
51

✓

PITT −37.0

–

–

Final

Louisiana@#11Texas

15%
85%

18
38

✓

TEX −15.7

–

–

Final

San Jose State@#7USC

14%
86%

7
30

✓

USC −16.3

–

–

Prime time 10 games

Final

Akron@#13Auburn

1.4%
99%

10
60

✓

AUB −34.2

–

–

Final

Syracuse@Ohio

49%
51%

29
9

✗

SYR −0.2

–

–

Final

Oregon State@Purdue

35%
65%

21
30

✓

PUR −5.3

–

–

Final

Texas TechvsHouston

45%
55%

38
21

✗

HOU −1.4

–

–

Final

Baylor@Texas State

71%
29%

29
20

✓

BAY −9.0

–

–

Final

Florida Atlantic@#8Florida

12%
88%

14
35

✓

FLA −18.1

–

–

Final

#2Georgiavs#5Clemson

62%
38%

10
3

✓

UGA −5.2

–

–

Final

UTSA@Illinois

27%
73%

37
30

✗

ILL −9.0

–

–

Final

Northern Illinois@Georgia TechUpset

11%
89%

22
21

✗

GT −18.6

–

–

Final

#15LSU@#25UCLA

48%
52%

27
38

✓

UCLA −0.2

–

–

Late night 4 games

Final

Nevada@California

26%
74%

22
17

✗

CAL −9.6

–

–

Final

BYUvsArizona

73%
27%

24
16

✓

BYU −9.8

–

–

Final

New Mexico State@San Diego State

6.2%
94%

10
28

✓

SDSU −23.6

–

–

Final

Utah State@Washington StateUpset

16%
84%

26
23

✗

WSU −14.7

–

–

Sun, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final

#9Notre Dame@Florida State

65%
35%

41
38

✓

ND −6.5

–

–

Time TBD 2 games

Final

Kent State@#6Texas A&M

5.1%
95%

10
41

✓

TA&M −25.1

–

–

Final

Southern Miss@South Alabama

38%
62%

7
31

✓

USA −4.2

–

–

Tue, Sep 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final

Louisvillevs#22Ole Miss

34%
66%

24
43

✓

MISS −6.0

–

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET	Eastern Illinois at South Carolina	South Carolina −28.0	97%
Wed, Sep 1 · 7:30 PM ET	UAB vs Jacksonville State	UAB −9.8	73%
Thu, Sep 2 · 8:05 PM ET	Long Island University at FIU	FIU −11.2	77%
Sun, Sep 5 · TBD	East Tennessee State at Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt −22.2	93%
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET	Monmouth at Middle Tennessee	Middle Tennessee −14.1	83%
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:30 PM ET	Northwestern State at North Texas	North Texas −12.6	80%
Sat, Sep 4 · 9:00 PM ET	Bethune-Cookman at UTEP	UTEP −10.4	76%
Fri, Sep 3 · TBD	UT Martin at Western Kentucky	Western Kentucky −16.1	86%
Sat, Sep 4 · 12:00 PM ET	Colgate at Boston College	Boston College −29.0	97%
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:30 PM ET	William & Mary at Virginia	Virginia −28.7	97%
Sat, Sep 4 · 12:00 PM ET	Holy Cross at UConn	UConn −9.6	74%
Sat, Sep 4 · 6:00 PM ET	Campbell at Liberty	Liberty −27.0	96%
Sat, Sep 4 · 4:30 PM ET	Northern Iowa at #16 Iowa State	Iowa State −36.6	99%
Sat, Sep 4 · TBD	South Dakota at Kansas	Kansas −17.3	87%
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET	Missouri State at Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State −21.7	92%
Sun, Sep 5 · TBD	Duquesne at #24 TCU	TCU −34.0	99%
Thu, Sep 2 · 7:30 PM ET	UC Davis at Tulsa	Tulsa −26.7	96%
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET	Nicholls at Memphis	Memphis −23.0	93%
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET	Abilene Christian at SMU	SMU −37.7	99%
Thu, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Western Illinois at Ball State	Ball State −21.2	92%
Fri, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET	Saint Francis at Eastern Michigan	Eastern Michigan −16.0	86%
Thu, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Wagner at Buffalo	Buffalo −19.7	90%
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET	Norfolk State at Toledo	Toledo −20.6	91%
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET	Central Arkansas at Arkansas State	Arkansas State −25.3	95%
Sat, Sep 4 · 6:00 PM ET	Gardner-Webb at Georgia Southern	Georgia Southern −17.4	88%
Sat, Sep 4 · 7:00 PM ET	Southern at Troy	Troy −17.9	88%
Thu, Sep 2 · 7:30 PM ET	Weber State at Utah	Utah −30.4	98%
Thu, Sep 2 · 10:30 PM ET	Southern Utah at #14 Arizona State	Arizona State −36.9	99%
Fri, Sep 3 · 9:00 PM ET	Northern Colorado at Colorado	Colorado −27.5	96%
Sun, Sep 5 · TBD	Montana at #21 Washington	Washington −35.2	99%
Sat, Aug 28 · 10:00 PM ET	Southern Utah at San Jose State	San Jose State −25.2	95%
Thu, Sep 2 · 10:00 PM ET	Eastern Washington at UNLV	UNLV −11.9	79%
Fri, Sep 3 · 9:00 PM ET	South Dakota State at Colorado State	Colorado State −16.0	86%
Fri, Sep 3 · TBD	Houston Christian at New Mexico	New Mexico −29.3	97%
Sat, Sep 4 · 4:00 PM ET	Montana State at Wyoming	Wyoming −20.7	91%
Sat, Sep 4 · 11:59 PM ET	Portland State at Hawaii	Hawaii −20.8	91%
Sat, Sep 4 · 2:00 PM ET	Lafayette at Air Force	Air Force −26.7	96%
Sat, Sep 4 · 12:00 PM ET	Fordham at Nebraska	Nebraska −30.5	98%
Thu, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	The Citadel at Coastal Carolina	Coastal Carolina −30.7	98%