The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2021

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 63 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 83

Wilder than 83% of weeks in the archive.

20 upsets against 17.3 expected

  • Biggest shockKansas over Texas1.4% chance · won 57-56
  • Runner-upGeorgia State over Coastal Carolina16% chance · won 42-40
  • Runner-upTexas Tech over Iowa State18% chance · won 41-38

Upsets

Tue, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Ohio@Eastern MichiganUpset
23%
77%
34
26
✗
EMU −11.3
–
–

Wed, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Kent State@Central Michigan
42%
58%
30
54
✓
CMU −2.6
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Buffalo@Miami (OH)
35%
65%
18
45
✓
M-OH −5.5
–
–
Final
Akron@Western Michigan
8.6%
91%
40
45
✓
WMU −21.5
–
–

Thu, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
North Carolina@#17Pittsburgh
33%
67%
23
30
✓
PITT −6.6
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Toledo@Bowling Green
84%
16%
49
17
✓
TOL −16.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@Northern Illinois
54%
46%
29
30
✗
BALL −2.1
–
–

Fri, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Afternoon 1 game

Final
#7Cincinnati@USF
96%
3.7%
45
28
✓
CIN −28.9
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Wyoming@Boise State
9.3%
91%
13
23
✓
BOIS −20.7
–
–

Sat, Nov 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 16 games

Final
New Mexico State@#3Alabama
<0.1%
>99%
3
59
✓
ALA −57.6
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#13AuburnUpset
30%
70%
43
34
✗
AUB −7.9
–
–
Final
UConn@#15Clemson
0.2%
>99%
7
44
✓
CLEM −45.2
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Louisville
40%
60%
3
41
✓
LOU −3.4
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Indiana
42%
58%
38
3
✗
IU −2.9
–
–
Final
#4Michigan@#9Penn State
51%
49%
21
17
✓
MICH −0.9
–
–
Final
Northwestern@#6Wisconsin
7.2%
93%
7
35
✓
WIS −23.1
–
–
Final
#10Oklahoma@BaylorUpset
58%
42%
14
27
✗
OU −3.6
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Kansas State
39%
61%
17
34
✓
KSU −4.1
–
–
Final
UCF@SMU
49%
51%
28
55
✓
SMU −0.1
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Memphis
55%
45%
30
29
✓
ECU −2.3
–
–
Final
Houston@Temple
93%
6.7%
37
8
✓
HOU −24.3
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Rice
84%
16%
42
21
✓
WKU −16.3
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Coastal CarolinaUpset
16%
84%
42
40
✗
CCU −15.5
–
–
Final
#18Utah@Arizona
92%
8.1%
38
29
✓
UTAH −22.8
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Appalachian State
10%
90%
7
31
✓
APP −19.6
–
–

Afternoon 21 games

Final
Georgia Southern@Texas State
49%
51%
38
30
✗
TXST −0.1
–
–
Final
#1Georgia@Tennessee
93%
7.4%
41
17
✓
UGA −23.5
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Louisiana Tech
40%
60%
32
42
✓
LT −3.5
–
–
Final
FIU@Middle Tennessee
16%
84%
10
50
✓
MTSU −15.7
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Old Dominion
73%
27%
16
30
✗
FAU −10.4
–
–
Final
UAB@Marshall
34%
66%
21
14
✗
MRSH −6.3
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@UTSA
2.2%
98%
17
27
✓
UTSA −31.9
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Florida State
55%
45%
28
31
✗
MIA −2.5
–
–
Final
Boston College@Georgia Tech
45%
55%
41
30
✗
GT −1.3
–
–
Final
Duke@Virginia Tech
17%
83%
17
48
✓
VT −14.5
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#12Iowa
32%
68%
22
27
✓
IOWA −6.9
–
–
Final
Purdue@#2Ohio State
11%
89%
31
59
✓
OSU −19.3
–
–
Final
#16Iowa State@Texas TechUpset
82%
18%
38
41
✗
ISU −15.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Troy
70%
30%
35
21
✓
UL −8.8
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Missouri
55%
45%
28
31
✗
SC −2.4
–
–
Final
UTEP@North Texas
52%
48%
17
20
✗
UTEP −1.5
–
–
Final
Maryland@#24Michigan State
21%
79%
21
40
✓
MSU −12.7
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Tulane
48%
52%
20
13
✗
TULN −0.2
–
–
Final
Hawaii@UNLV
59%
41%
13
27
✗
HAW −4.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Louisiana-Monroe
51%
49%
27
24
✓
ARST −1.0
–
–
Final
Stanford@Oregon State
33%
67%
14
35
✓
ORST −6.6
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
Arkansas@LSU
46%
54%
16
13
✗
LSU −1.0
–
–
Final
#8Notre Dame@Virginia
71%
29%
28
3
✓
ND −9.4
–
–
Final
#25NC State@#21Wake Forest
40%
60%
42
45
✓
WAKE −3.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@#23TexasUpset
1.4%
99%
57
56
✗
TEX −34.8
–
–
Final
TCU@#19Oklahoma State
25%
75%
17
63
✓
OKST −10.5
–
–
Final
Colorado@UCLA
19%
82%
20
44
✓
UCLA −13.8
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Washington State@#11Oregon
18%
82%
24
38
✓
ORE −13.9
–
–
Final
Utah State@San Jose State
49%
51%
48
17
✗
USU −0.3
–
–
Final
Nevada@San Diego State
46%
54%
21
23
✓
SDSU −1.3
–
–

Sun, Nov 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
#5Texas A&M@#14Ole Miss
55%
45%
19
29
✗
TA&M −2.6
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Vanderbilt
90%
10%
34
17
✓
UK −20.5
–
–
Final
#22Arizona State@Washington
62%
38%
35
30
✓
ASU −5.3
–
–
Final
Air Force@Colorado State
73%
27%
35
21
✓
AF −10.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Fresno State
6.5%
94%
7
34
✓
FRES −23.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 13 · 12:00 PM ET Samford at #20 Florida Florida −36.8 99%
Sat, Nov 13 · 12:00 PM ET Maine at UMass Maine −1.0 51%
Sat, Nov 13 · 12:00 PM ET Bucknell at Army Army −27.4 96%