The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2021

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 52 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 62

Wilder than 62% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 15.1 expected

  • Biggest shockLouisiana-Monroe over Liberty4.4% chance · won 31-28
  • Runner-upPurdue over Iowa17% chance · won 24-7
  • Runner-upOklahoma State over Texas28% chance · won 32-24

Upsets

Tue, Oct 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Appalachian State@Louisiana
69%
31%
13
41
✗
APP −8.1
–
–

Thu, Oct 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Navy@Memphis
30%
70%
17
35
✓
MEM −8.8
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@South Alabama
42%
58%
14
41
✓
USA −3.7
–
–

Fri, Oct 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Marshall@North Texas
83%
17%
49
21
✓
MRSH −15.6
–
–
Final
#9Clemson@Syracuse
83%
17%
17
14
✓
CLEM −15.7
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
California@#15Oregon
18%
82%
17
24
✓
ORE −15.4
–
–
Final
San Diego State@San Jose State
73%
27%
19
13
✓
SDSU −10.3
–
–

Sat, Oct 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
#17Auburn@#18Arkansas
48%
52%
38
23
✗
ARK −1.1
–
–
Final
#7Florida@LSUUpset
71%
29%
42
49
✗
FLA −9.2
–
–
Final
#14Texas A&M@Missouri
82%
18%
35
14
✓
TA&M −15.1
–
–
Final
#21Michigan State@Indiana
61%
39%
20
15
✓
MSU −4.5
–
–
Final
#24Nebraska@MinnesotaUpset
57%
43%
23
30
✗
NEB −2.9
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Northwestern
65%
35%
7
21
✗
RUTG −6.4
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@#11TexasUpset
28%
72%
32
24
✗
TEX −9.7
–
–
Final
UCF@#6Cincinnati
16%
84%
21
56
✓
CIN −16.9
–
–
Final
Tulsa@USF
68%
32%
32
31
✓
TLSA −7.6
–
–
Final
Ohio@Buffalo
25%
75%
26
27
✓
BUF −11.4
–
–
Final
Duke@Virginia
25%
75%
0
48
✓
UVA −11.2
–
–
Final
Ball State@Eastern Michigan
53%
47%
38
31
✓
BALL −1.0
–
–
Final
Akron@Miami (OH)
13%
87%
21
34
✓
M-OH −19.1
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
Troy@Texas State
63%
37%
31
28
✓
TROY −5.4
–
–
Final
Kentucky@#1Georgia
4.1%
96%
13
30
✓
UGA −28.9
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Old Dominion
71%
29%
43
20
✓
WKU −9.0
–
–
Final
UAB@Southern Miss
87%
13%
34
0
✓
UAB −18.6
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@North Carolina
34%
66%
42
45
✓
UNC −6.8
–
–
Final
#19Pittsburgh@Virginia Tech
65%
35%
28
7
✓
PITT −6.2
–
–
Final
Purdue@#4IowaUpset
17%
83%
24
7
✗
IOWA −15.8
–
–
Final
BYU@Baylor
40%
60%
24
38
✓
BAY −4.2
–
–
Final
Toledo@Central Michigan
68%
32%
23
26
✗
TOL −7.8
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Northern Illinois
23%
77%
26
34
✓
NIU −12.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@Western Michigan
39%
61%
31
64
✓
WMU −4.7
–
–
Final
Arizona@Colorado
26%
74%
0
34
✓
COLO −10.6
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Wyoming
62%
38%
17
0
✓
FRES −5.2
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@South Carolina
14%
86%
20
21
✓
SC −17.9
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Kansas
83%
17%
41
14
✓
TTU −15.7
–
–
Final
Rice@UTSA
13%
87%
0
45
✓
UTSA −18.8
–
–

Prime time 12 games

Final
#3Alabama@Mississippi State
85%
15%
49
9
✓
ALA −17.2
–
–
Final
Liberty@Louisiana-MonroeUpset
96%
4.4%
28
31
✗
LIB −28.3
–
–
Final
Colorado State@New Mexico
73%
27%
36
7
✓
CSU −9.9
–
–
Final
Utah State@UNLV
68%
32%
28
24
✓
USU −7.9
–
–
Final
#16Ole Miss@#25Tennessee
55%
45%
31
26
✓
MISS −1.8
–
–
Final
NC State@Boston College
48%
52%
33
7
✗
BC −0.8
–
–
Final
#20Iowa State@Kansas State
61%
39%
33
20
✓
ISU −4.3
–
–
Final
TCU@#10Oklahoma
30%
70%
31
52
✓
OU −8.7
–
–
Final
Stanford@Washington State
62%
38%
31
34
✗
STAN −4.8
–
–
Final
#23UCLA@Washington
59%
41%
24
17
✓
UCLA −3.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@UTEP
63%
37%
3
19
✗
LT −5.5
–
–
Final
Air Force@Boise State
38%
62%
24
17
✗
BOIS −5.1
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
#13Arizona State@UtahUpset
65%
35%
21
35
✗
ASU −6.2
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Nevada
24%
76%
17
34
✓
NEV −12.1
–
–

Sun, Oct 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Army@#22Wisconsin
26%
74%
14
20
✓
WIS −10.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 16 · 12:00 PM ET Yale at UConn Yale −4.4 61%