The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2023

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 10 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 32

Wilder than 32% of weeks in the archive.

3 upsets against 3.1 expected

  • Biggest shockWashington over Oregon36% chance · won 34-31
  • Runner-upMiami (OH) over Toledo41% chance · won 23-14
  • Runner-upAlabama over Georgia43% chance · won 27-24

Fri, Dec 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#4Oregonvs#12Washington
64%
36%
31
34
✗
ORE −6.0
–
–

Sat, Dec 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
Oklahoma Statevs#6Texas
12%
88%
21
49
✓
TEX −18.5
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)vsToledo
41%
59%
23
14
✗
TOL −3.2
–
–

Afternoon 4 games

Final
Boise State@UNLV
55%
45%
44
20
✓
BOIS −2.6
–
–
Final
#25SMU@Tulane
58%
42%
26
14
✓
SMU −3.7
–
–
Final
#3Georgiavs#7Alabama
57%
42%
24
27
✗
UGA −3.5
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Troy
35%
65%
23
49
✓
TROY −5.8
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
#22Louisvillevs#8Florida State
26%
74%
6
16
✓
FSU −10.0
–
–
Final
#1MichiganvsIowa
90%
9.7%
26
0
✓
MICH −21.2
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
New Mexico State@Liberty
23%
77%
35
49
✓
LIB −11.2
–
–