The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 10 slate, 2023

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 65 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 59

Wilder than 59% of weeks in the archive.

21 upsets against 19.5 expected

  • Biggest shockArmy over Air Force16% chance · won 23-3
  • Runner-upIndiana over Wisconsin22% chance · won 20-14
  • Runner-upStanford over Washington State25% chance · won 10-7

Upsets

Tue, Oct 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Northern Illinois@Central Michigan
64%
36%
31
37
✗
NIU −6.4
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Toledo
15%
85%
13
31
✓
TOL −16.4
–
–

Wed, Nov 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Ball State@Bowling Green
26%
74%
21
24
✓
BGSU −10.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@Akron
40%
60%
27
31
✓
AKR −3.5
–
–

Thu, Nov 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
TCU@Texas Tech
47%
53%
28
35
✓
TTU −0.6
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#22Duke
16%
84%
21
24
✓
DUKE −15.2
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Troy
40%
60%
10
28
✓
TROY −3.4
–
–

Fri, Nov 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Boston College@Syracuse
32%
68%
17
10
✗
SYR −7.1
–
–

Sat, Nov 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
Arkansas@Florida
43%
57%
39
36
✗
FLA −2.4
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@IndianaUpset
78%
22%
14
20
✗
WIS −12.6
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Michigan State
57%
43%
17
20
✗
NEB −3.5
–
–
Final
#17Texas A&M@#15Ole Miss
42%
58%
35
38
✓
MISS −2.9
–
–
Final
#2Ohio State@Rutgers
89%
11%
35
16
✓
OSU −20.3
–
–
Final
Jacksonville State@South Carolina
19%
81%
28
38
✓
SC −13.3
–
–
Final
UConn@#14Tennessee
2.1%
98%
3
59
✓
TENN −32.4
–
–
Final
#12Notre Dame@#23Clemson
64%
36%
23
31
✗
ND −6.0
–
–
Final
#13Kansas State@#5Texas
30%
70%
30
33
✓
TEX −7.8
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#20Utah
12%
88%
3
55
✓
UTAH −18.4
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Virginia
52%
48%
45
17
✓
GT −1.2
–
–
Final
Navy@Temple
72%
28%
18
32
✗
NAVY −10.0
–
–
Final
ArmyvsAir ForceUpset
16%
84%
23
3
✗
AF −15.3
–
–

Afternoon 26 games

Final
Florida Atlantic@UAB
55%
45%
42
45
✗
FAU −2.5
–
–
Final
UTSA@North Texas
74%
26%
37
29
✓
UTSA −10.7
–
–
Final
USF@Memphis
12%
88%
50
59
✓
MEM −18.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Arkansas State
73%
27%
17
37
✗
UL −10.1
–
–
Final
Missouri@#4Georgia
16%
84%
21
30
✓
UGA −15.3
–
–
Final
#7Penn State@Maryland
76%
24%
51
15
✓
PSU −11.8
–
–
Final
Illinois@Minnesota
33%
67%
27
26
✗
MINN −6.5
–
–
Final
IowavsNorthwestern
76%
24%
10
7
✓
IOWA −11.7
–
–
Final
#3Florida State@Pittsburgh
92%
8.1%
24
7
✓
FSU −22.8
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@#24Louisville
24%
76%
3
34
✓
LOU −10.8
–
–
Final
Houston@Baylor
47%
53%
25
24
✗
BAY −0.7
–
–
Final
UCF@Cincinnati
60%
40%
28
26
✓
UCF −4.6
–
–
Final
#11Oklahoma@Oklahoma StateUpset
75%
25%
24
27
✗
OU −11.3
–
–
Final
Tulane@East Carolina
78%
22%
13
10
✓
TULN −12.6
–
–
Final
James Madison@Georgia State
47%
53%
42
14
✗
GAST −0.7
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Old Dominion
68%
32%
28
24
✓
CCU −8.0
–
–
Final
Auburn@Vanderbilt
80%
20%
31
15
✓
AUB −13.8
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Tulsa
33%
67%
33
26
✗
TLSA −6.4
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Southern Miss
41%
59%
7
24
✓
USM −3.2
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Nevada
35%
65%
27
14
✗
NEV −5.6
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Texas State
51%
49%
24
45
✗
GASO −1.0
–
–
Final
California@#6Oregon
6.7%
93%
19
63
✓
ORE −23.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Liberty
14%
86%
30
56
✓
LIB −16.7
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@New Mexico State
38%
62%
7
13
✓
NMSU −4.2
–
–
Final
Marshall@Appalachian State
33%
67%
9
31
✓
APP −6.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@New Mexico
75%
25%
56
14
✓
UNLV −11.3
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
#25Kansas@Iowa State
54%
46%
28
21
✓
KU −2.2
–
–
Final
BYU@West Virginia
34%
66%
7
37
✓
WVU −6.3
–
–
Final
Utah State@San Diego State
51%
49%
32
24
✓
USU −0.9
–
–
Final
Purdue@#1Michigan
2.2%
98%
13
41
✓
MICH −31.9
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Mississippi State
42%
58%
24
3
✗
MSST −2.7
–
–
Final
#9Washington@#16USC
56%
44%
52
42
✓
WASH −2.8
–
–
Final
SMU@Rice
81%
19%
36
31
✓
SMU −14.2
–
–
Final
#10LSU@#8Alabama
36%
64%
28
42
✓
ALA −5.0
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@UTEP
77%
23%
21
13
✓
WKU −12.1
–
–
Final
Stanford@Washington StateUpset
25%
75%
10
7
✗
WSU −10.5
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
#18Oregon State@Colorado
78%
22%
26
19
✓
ORST −13.0
–
–
Final
Boise State@Fresno State
43%
57%
30
37
✓
FRES −2.3
–
–
Final
#21UCLA@ArizonaUpset
52%
48%
10
27
✗
UCLA −1.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Colorado State@Wyoming
30%
70%
15
24
✓
WYO −7.7
–
–

Sun, Nov 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Miami (FL)@NC State
55%
44%
6
20
✗
MIA −2.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 4 · 3:30 PM ET Merrimack at UMass UMass −3.8 61%
Sat, Nov 4 · 1:00 PM ET Kennesaw State at Sam Houston Kennesaw State −0.2 49%
Sat, Nov 4 · 12:00 PM ET Campbell at #19 North Carolina North Carolina −51.1 >99%