The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2023

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 55 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 45

Wilder than 45% of weeks in the archive.

19 upsets against 18.1 expected

  • Biggest shockIllinois over Maryland18% chance · won 27-24
  • Runner-upColorado State over Boise State26% chance · won 31-30
  • Runner-upPittsburgh over Louisville27% chance · won 38-21

Upsets

Tue, Oct 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
Louisiana Tech@Middle Tennessee
45%
55%
23
31
✓
MTSU −2.2
–
–
Final
Liberty@Jacksonville State
59%
41%
31
13
✓
LIB −3.9
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Appalachian State
38%
62%
27
24
✗
APP −5.1
–
–

Wed, Oct 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
UTEP@FIU
55%
45%
27
14
✓
UTEP −2.1
–
–
Final
Sam Houston@New Mexico State
39%
61%
13
27
✓
NMSU −4.6
–
–

Thu, Oct 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
West Virginia@Houston
62%
38%
39
41
✗
WVU −4.8
–
–
Final
SMU@East Carolina
73%
27%
31
10
✓
SMU −10.0
–
–

Fri, Oct 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Tulane@Memphis
50%
50%
31
21
✓
MEM −0.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Stanford@Colorado
35%
65%
46
43
✗
COLO −6.4
–
–

Sat, Oct 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Arkansas@#6Alabama
11%
89%
21
24
✓
ALA −20.3
–
–
Final
Indiana@#1Michigan
2.0%
98%
7
52
✓
MICH −34.0
–
–
Final
#2Ohio State@Purdue
90%
10%
41
7
✓
OSU −20.8
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Rutgers
35%
65%
24
27
✓
RUTG −6.7
–
–
Final
#5Georgia@Vanderbilt
96%
3.5%
37
20
✓
UGA −29.9
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#10Florida State
18%
82%
3
41
✓
FSU −15.4
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Cincinnati
50%
50%
30
10
✗
CIN −0.1
–
–
Final
Temple@North Texas
45%
55%
14
45
✓
UNT −2.1
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@James Madison
53%
47%
13
41
✗
GASO −1.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@Eastern Michigan
31%
69%
14
28
✓
EMU −8.3
–
–
Final
Navy@Charlotte
58%
42%
14
0
✓
NAVY −3.3
–
–
Final
Toledo@Ball State
85%
15%
13
6
✓
TOL −17.0
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
California@#21Utah
19%
80%
14
34
✓
UTAH −14.4
–
–
Final
Troy@Army
46%
54%
19
0
✗
ARMY −1.6
–
–
Final
Illinois@#23MarylandUpset
18%
82%
27
24
✗
MD −15.5
–
–
Final
UMass@#3Penn State
0.1%
>99%
0
63
✓
PSU −50.5
–
–
Final
Florida@South Carolina
47%
53%
41
39
✗
SC −1.5
–
–
Final
#14Texas A&M@#13Tennessee
43%
57%
13
20
✓
TENN −3.2
–
–
Final
#9Oregon@#8Washington
44%
56%
33
36
✓
WASH −2.8
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Virginia Tech
51%
49%
13
30
✗
WAKE −0.2
–
–
Final
Kansas@Oklahoma State
71%
29%
32
39
✗
KU −8.9
–
–
Final
BYU@TCU
31%
69%
11
44
✓
TCU −8.3
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@USF
51%
49%
56
14
✓
FAU −0.3
–
–
Final
Akron@Central Michigan
37%
63%
10
17
✓
CMU −5.5
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Buffalo
45%
55%
24
14
✗
BUF −2.1
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Western Michigan
71%
29%
34
21
✓
M-OH −9.0
–
–
Final
Iowa@#22WisconsinUpset
34%
66%
15
6
✗
WIS −6.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@Northern Illinois
64%
36%
13
23
✗
OHIO −5.7
–
–
Final
UNLV@Nevada
76%
24%
45
27
✓
UNLV −11.8
–
–
Final
San Jose State@New Mexico
69%
31%
52
24
✓
SJSU −8.1
–
–
Final
#25Louisville@PittsburghUpset
73%
27%
21
38
✗
LOU −9.9
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
Auburn@#15LSU
30%
70%
18
48
✓
LSU −8.6
–
–
Final
Arizona@Washington State
36%
64%
44
6
✗
WSU −5.9
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Texas Tech
43%
57%
38
21
✗
TTU −3.0
–
–
Final
Marshall@Georgia State
45%
55%
24
41
✓
GAST −2.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Texas State
20%
80%
20
21
✓
TXST −14.0
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Air Force
22%
78%
27
34
✓
AF −12.9
–
–
Final
Missouri@Kentucky
43%
57%
38
21
✗
UK −3.2
–
–
Final
#11USC@#16Notre Dame
51%
49%
20
48
✗
USC −0.3
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@#12North Carolina
24%
76%
31
41
✓
UNC −11.5
–
–
Final
Boise State@Colorado State
74%
26%
30
31
✗
BOIS −10.5
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
San Diego State@Hawaii
64%
36%
41
34
✓
SDSU −5.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Fresno State@Utah State
65%
35%
37
32
✓
FRES −6.4
–
–

Sun, Oct 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#24UCLA@#20Oregon State
40%
60%
24
36
✓
ORST −4.3
–
–
Final
NC State@#19Duke
20%
80%
3
24
✓
DUKE −13.9
–
–
Final
UAB@UTSA
30%
70%
20
41
✓
UTSA −8.9
–
–