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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 11 slate, 2023

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 65 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 49

Wilder than 49% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 17.4 expected

  • Biggest shockHawaii over Air Force9.9% chance · won 27-13
  • Runner-upArizona State over UCLA12% chance · won 17-7
  • Runner-upNorthwestern over Wisconsin20% chance · won 24-10

Upsets

Tue, Nov 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Ohio@Buffalo
65%
35%
20
10
✓
OHIO −6.7
–
–

Wed, Nov 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Eastern Michigan@Toledo
10%
90%
23
49
✓
TOL −19.6
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Ball State@Northern IllinoisUpset
24%
76%
20
17
✗
NIU −10.7
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Western Michigan
33%
67%
28
38
✓
WMU −6.5
–
–

Thu, Nov 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Virginia@#20Louisville
8.0%
92%
24
31
✓
LOU −22.1
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@LouisianaUpset
23%
77%
34
31
✗
UL −11.5
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Akron@Miami (OH)
7.2%
93%
0
19
✓
M-OH −23.0
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Kent State
74%
26%
49
19
✓
BGSU −10.6
–
–

Fri, Nov 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
North Texas@SMU
8.0%
92%
21
45
✓
SMU −22.1
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Wyoming@UNLV
35%
65%
14
34
✓
UNLV −5.6
–
–

Sat, Nov 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 17 games

Final
Indiana@Illinois
33%
67%
45
48
✓
ILL −6.6
–
–
Final
#5Alabama@Kentucky
81%
19%
49
21
✓
ALA −14.4
–
–
Final
Maryland@Nebraska
56%
44%
13
10
✓
MD −2.9
–
–
Final
#1Michigan@#3Penn State
53%
46%
24
15
✓
MICH −1.9
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@South Carolina
19%
81%
6
47
✓
SC −13.7
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Boston College
50%
50%
48
22
✓
VT −0.6
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#21Clemson
18%
82%
21
42
✓
CLEM −14.0
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#25KansasUpset
35%
65%
16
13
✗
KU −5.5
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Tulane
10%
90%
22
24
✓
TULN −19.8
–
–
Final
Temple@USF
29%
71%
23
27
✓
USF −8.2
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Liberty
18%
82%
10
38
✓
LIB −14.3
–
–
Final
UConn@James Madison
12%
88%
6
44
✓
JMU −18.1
–
–
Final
Arizona@Colorado
70%
30%
34
31
✓
ARIZ −8.8
–
–
Final
NC State@Wake Forest
53%
47%
26
6
✓
NCSU −1.7
–
–
Final
Memphis@Charlotte
84%
16%
44
38
✓
MEM −16.2
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Georgia State
51%
49%
42
14
✓
APP −1.0
–
–
Final
Troy@Louisiana-Monroe
89%
11%
45
14
✓
TROY −19.7
–
–

Afternoon 20 games

Final
Sam Houston@Louisiana Tech
34%
66%
42
27
✗
LT −6.0
–
–
Final
Baylor@#13Kansas State
6.8%
93%
25
59
✓
KSU −23.5
–
–
Final
Nevada@Utah State
19%
82%
24
41
✓
USU −13.9
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Iowa
35%
65%
0
22
✓
IOWA −5.7
–
–
Final
FIU@Middle Tennessee
20%
80%
6
40
✓
MTSU −13.0
–
–
Final
#14Tennessee@#24Missouri
59%
41%
7
36
✗
TENN −4.0
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Purdue
54%
46%
30
49
✗
MINN −2.0
–
–
Final
Northwestern@WisconsinUpset
20%
80%
24
10
✗
WIS −13.2
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Western Kentucky
28%
72%
38
29
✗
WKU −9.0
–
–
Final
#18Utah@#9Washington
28%
72%
28
35
✓
WASH −9.0
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@#6Florida State
10%
90%
20
27
✓
FSU −19.7
–
–
Final
PittsburghvsSyracuse
46%
54%
13
28
✓
SYR −1.2
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@UCF
53%
47%
3
45
✗
OKST −1.8
–
–
Final
UAB@Navy
43%
57%
6
31
✓
NAVY −2.2
–
–
Final
Texas State@Coastal Carolina
33%
67%
23
31
✓
CCU −6.5
–
–
Final
Auburn@Arkansas
47%
53%
48
10
✗
ARK −0.6
–
–
Final
Washington State@California
46%
54%
39
42
✓
CAL −1.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Florida Atlantic
34%
66%
22
7
✗
FAU −6.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@South Alabama
17%
84%
14
21
✓
USA −15.1
–
–
Final
Stanford@#19Oregon State
10%
90%
17
62
✓
ORST −19.8
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
Florida@#10LSU
16%
84%
35
52
✓
LSU −15.4
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#2Ohio State
2.1%
98%
3
38
✓
OSU −32.2
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@#16Texas A&M
19%
82%
10
51
✓
TA&M −13.8
–
–
Final
#8Texas@TCU
78%
22%
29
26
✓
TEX −12.8
–
–
Final
Rice@UTSA
22%
78%
14
34
✓
UTSA −11.9
–
–
Final
#23Duke@#22North Carolina
42%
58%
45
47
✓
UNC −2.9
–
–
Final
Arizona State@UCLAUpset
12%
88%
17
7
✗
UCLA −18.3
–
–

Late night 5 games

Final
New Mexico@Boise State
6.9%
93%
14
42
✓
BOIS −23.4
–
–
Final
Iowa State@BYU
60%
40%
45
13
✓
ISU −4.7
–
–
Final
#17USC@#4Oregon
20%
80%
27
36
✓
ORE −12.8
–
–
Final
Fresno State@San Jose State
54%
46%
18
42
✗
FRES −2.0
–
–
Final
Air Force@HawaiiUpset
90%
9.9%
13
27
✗
AF −21.0
–
–

Sun, Nov 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
#15Ole Miss@#7Georgia
26%
74%
17
52
✓
UGA −9.9
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Houston
36%
64%
24
14
✗
HOU −5.1
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#11Oklahoma
17%
83%
20
59
✓
OU −14.8
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Marshall
52%
48%
33
38
✗
GASO −1.1
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Colorado State
41%
59%
19
22
✓
CSU −3.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 11 · 12:00 PM ET Holy Cross at Army Army −20.8 91%