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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 8 slate, 2023

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 54 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 87

Wilder than 87% of weeks in the archive.

18 upsets against 15.9 expected

  • Biggest shockVirginia over North Carolina3.6% chance · won 31-27
  • Runner-upNevada over San Diego State20% chance · won 6-0
  • Runner-upCharlotte over East Carolina27% chance · won 10-7

Upsets

Tue, Oct 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
Middle Tennessee@Liberty
17%
83%
35
42
✓
LIB −14.8
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Jacksonville State
62%
38%
17
20
✗
WKU −5.4
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@South Alabama
14%
86%
3
55
✓
USA −16.8
–
–

Wed, Oct 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
FIU@Sam Houston
28%
72%
33
27
✗
SHSU −8.6
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UTEP
55%
45%
28
7
✓
NMSU −2.4
–
–

Thu, Oct 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Rice@Tulsa
31%
68%
42
10
✗
TLSA −7.2
–
–
Final
James Madison@Marshall
51%
49%
20
9
✓
JMU −0.7
–
–

Fri, Oct 20

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
SMU@Temple
91%
9.0%
55
0
✓
SMU −21.8
–
–

Sat, Oct 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Mississippi State@Arkansas
40%
60%
7
3
✗
ARK −3.4
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Indiana
66%
34%
31
14
✓
RUTG −7.1
–
–
Final
#3Penn State@#2Ohio State
39%
61%
12
20
✓
OSU −4.0
–
–
Final
Boston College@Georgia Tech
33%
67%
38
23
✗
GT −6.7
–
–
Final
Baylor@Cincinnati
39%
61%
32
29
✗
CIN −3.8
–
–
Final
UCF@#6Oklahoma
7.1%
93%
29
31
✓
OU −23.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@UAB
71%
29%
45
21
✓
MEM −9.2
–
–
Final
Air Force@Navy
77%
23%
17
6
✓
AF −12.4
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Ohio
18%
82%
17
20
✓
OHIO −14.1
–
–
Final
Charlotte@East Carolina
27%
73%
10
7
✗
ECU −9.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Georgia Southern
21%
79%
28
38
✓
GASO −12.3
–
–
Final
Akron@Bowling Green
24%
76%
14
41
✓
BGSU −10.6
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
#14Tennessee@#10Alabama
32%
68%
20
34
✓
ALA −6.9
–
–
Final
#25Wisconsin@Illinois
67%
33%
25
21
✓
WIS −7.5
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Iowa
28%
72%
12
10
✗
IOWA −8.9
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Missouri
39%
61%
12
34
✓
MIZ −3.8
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Nebraska
32%
68%
9
17
✓
NEB −7.2
–
–
Final
USF@UConn
46%
54%
24
21
✗
CONN −1.1
–
–
Final
Washington State@#9Oregon
9.8%
90%
24
38
✓
ORE −20.3
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Wake Forest
50%
50%
17
21
✓
PITT −0.3
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@West Virginia
34%
66%
48
34
✗
WVU −6.1
–
–
Final
North Texas@Tulane
8.8%
91%
28
35
✓
TULN −21.2
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Ball State
52%
48%
17
24
✗
CMU −1.2
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Northern Illinois
28%
72%
13
20
✓
NIU −8.8
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Kent State
61%
39%
24
6
✓
BUF −4.9
–
–
Final
#4Texas@Houston
92%
8.2%
31
24
✓
TEX −22.6
–
–
Final
Toledo@Miami (OH)
47%
53%
21
17
✗
M-OH −0.8
–
–
Final
UTSA@Florida Atlantic
53%
47%
36
10
✓
UTSA −1.6
–
–
Final
Hawaii@New Mexico
49%
51%
21
42
✓
HAW −0.1
–
–
Final
Virginia@#12North CarolinaUpset
3.6%
96%
31
27
✗
UNC −28.5
–
–

Prime time 11 games

Final
#18Ole Miss@Auburn
64%
36%
28
21
✓
MISS −6.1
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@BYU
66%
34%
14
27
✗
TTU −7.1
–
–
Final
#24TCU@#22Kansas State
39%
61%
3
41
✓
KSU −4.1
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Old Dominion
72%
28%
21
28
✗
APP −9.5
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Arkansas State
76%
24%
27
17
✓
CCU −11.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@UNLV
26%
74%
23
25
✓
UNLV −9.8
–
–
Final
Utah State@San Jose State
42%
58%
21
42
✓
SJSU −2.8
–
–
Final
Army@#11LSU
5.9%
94%
0
62
✓
LSU −24.6
–
–
Final
#1Michigan@Michigan State
94%
5.7%
49
0
✓
MICH −25.7
–
–
Final
#16Duke@#8Florida State
26%
74%
20
38
✓
FSU −9.8
–
–
Final
Nevada@San Diego StateUpset
20%
80%
6
0
✗
SDSU −13.1
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
UCLA@Stanford
77%
23%
42
7
✓
UCLA −12.2
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#5Washington
1.8%
98%
7
15
✓
WASH −33.2
–
–

Sun, Oct 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#21Utah@#15USC
40%
60%
34
32
✗
USC −3.7
–
–
Final
#17Clemson@Miami (FL)Upset
61%
39%
20
28
✗
CLEM −4.8
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Louisiana
52%
48%
20
17
✓
GAST −1.3
–
–