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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 12 slate, 2023

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 68 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 29

Wilder than 29% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 17.7 expected

  • Biggest shockNew Mexico over Fresno State7.5% chance · won 25-17
  • Runner-upNew Mexico State over Auburn8.5% chance · won 31-10
  • Runner-upVirginia over Duke19% chance · won 30-27

Upsets

Wed, Nov 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Toledo@Bowling Green
68%
32%
32
31
✓
TOL −8.2
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Northern Illinois
40%
60%
0
24
✓
NIU −3.5
–
–
Final
Akron@Eastern Michigan
31%
69%
27
30
✓
EMU −7.4
–
–

Thu, Nov 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Central Michigan@Ohio
18%
82%
20
34
✓
OHIO −14.5
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Miami (OH)
15%
85%
10
23
✓
M-OH −16.4
–
–

Fri, Nov 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
USF@UTSA
12%
88%
21
49
✓
UTSA −18.6
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Colorado@Washington State
37%
63%
14
56
✓
WSU −4.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Boston College@Pittsburgh
38%
62%
16
24
✓
PITT −4.6
–
–

Sat, Nov 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 21 games

Final
Coastal Carolina@Army
57%
43%
21
28
✗
CCU −3.4
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Indiana
44%
56%
24
21
✗
IU −2.0
–
–
Final
#1Michigan@Maryland
89%
11%
31
24
✓
MICH −20.1
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Mississippi State
13%
87%
20
41
✓
MSST −17.8
–
–
Final
Purdue@Northwestern
47%
53%
15
23
✓
NU −0.6
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#19Ole Miss
1.4%
99%
3
35
✓
MISS −35.1
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#5Penn State
6.6%
93%
6
27
✓
PSU −23.8
–
–
Final
#22Louisville@Miami (FL)
54%
46%
38
31
✓
LOU −2.2
–
–
Final
#10Oklahoma@BYU
91%
9.1%
31
24
✓
OU −21.8
–
–
Final
Tulane@Florida Atlantic
66%
34%
24
8
✓
TULN −7.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Navy
45%
55%
0
10
✓
NAVY −1.5
–
–
Final
SMU@Memphis
60%
40%
38
34
✓
SMU −4.6
–
–
Final
UMass@Liberty
5.4%
95%
25
49
✓
LIB −25.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Jacksonville State
23%
77%
17
56
✓
JXST −11.4
–
–
Final
UTEP@Middle Tennessee
27%
73%
30
34
✓
MTSU −9.1
–
–
Final
Rice@Charlotte
61%
39%
28
7
✓
RICE −4.9
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@James Madison
38%
62%
26
23
✗
JMU −4.3
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ball State
23%
77%
3
34
✓
BALL −11.1
–
–
Final
Hawaii@Wyoming
21%
79%
9
42
✓
WYO −12.4
–
–
Final
#18Utah@ArizonaUpset
55%
45%
18
42
✗
UTAH −2.4
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@West Virginia
26%
74%
21
42
✓
WVU −9.6
–
–

Afternoon 23 games

Final
#24Duke@VirginiaUpset
81%
19%
27
30
✗
DUKE −14.4
–
–
Final
North Texas@Tulsa
44%
56%
35
28
✗
TLSA −1.7
–
–
Final
Temple@UAB
29%
71%
24
34
✓
UAB −8.3
–
–
Final
Texas State@Arkansas State
60%
40%
31
77
✗
TXST −4.3
–
–
Final
Nevada@Colorado State
24%
76%
20
30
✓
CSU −10.6
–
–
Final
Illinois@Iowa
23%
77%
13
15
✓
IOWA −11.5
–
–
Final
#3Georgia@#15Tennessee
68%
32%
38
10
✓
UGA −7.8
–
–
Final
Sam Houston@Western Kentucky
17%
83%
23
28
✓
WKU −14.9
–
–
Final
UCLA@#17USCUpset
28%
72%
38
20
✗
USC −8.9
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#13Notre Dame
7.2%
93%
7
45
✓
ND −23.0
–
–
Final
#23North Carolina@#21Clemson
39%
61%
20
31
✓
CLEM −3.9
–
–
Final
NC State@Virginia Tech
50%
50%
35
28
✗
NCSU −0.4
–
–
Final
Baylor@TCU
18%
82%
17
42
✓
TCU −14.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Troy
17%
83%
24
31
✓
TROY −14.5
–
–
Final
UNLV@Air Force
36%
64%
31
27
✗
AF −5.5
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#25AuburnUpset
8.5%
92%
31
10
✗
AUB −21.5
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#2Ohio State
4.1%
96%
3
37
✓
OSU −27.6
–
–
Final
#4Oregon@Arizona State
94%
5.5%
49
13
✓
ORE −26.0
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Houston
60%
40%
43
30
✓
OKST −4.5
–
–
Final
UCF@Texas Tech
38%
62%
23
24
✓
TTU −4.4
–
–
Final
Marshall@South Alabama
26%
74%
0
28
✓
USA −10.1
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Georgia Southern
31%
69%
20
17
✗
GASO −7.3
–
–
Final
California@Stanford
59%
41%
27
15
✓
CAL −3.9
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
FIU@Arkansas
2.8%
97%
20
44
✓
ARK −30.3
–
–
Final
Florida@#20Missouri
25%
75%
31
33
✓
MIZ −10.3
–
–
Final
Kentucky@South Carolina
43%
57%
14
17
✓
SC −2.4
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Wisconsin
33%
67%
17
24
✓
WIS −6.6
–
–
Final
#9Washington@#16Oregon State
58%
42%
22
20
✓
WASH −3.6
–
–
Final
Georgia State@#11LSU
3.3%
97%
14
56
✓
LSU −29.2
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Georgia Tech
46%
54%
22
31
✓
GT −1.2
–
–
Final
#8Texas@Iowa State
77%
23%
26
16
✓
TEX −12.0
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
New Mexico@Fresno StateUpset
7.5%
92%
25
17
✗
FRES −22.7
–
–
Final
San Diego State@San Jose State
17%
83%
13
24
✓
SJSU −14.6
–
–

Sun, Nov 19

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#12Kansas State@Kansas
65%
35%
31
27
✓
KSU −6.6
–
–
Final
Boise State@Utah State
64%
36%
45
10
✓
BOIS −6.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Nov 18 · 12:00 PM ET Chattanooga at #6 Alabama Alabama −57.4 >99%
Sat, Nov 18 · 12:00 PM ET Abilene Christian at #14 Texas A&M Texas A&M −58.8 >99%
Sat, Nov 18 · 12:00 PM ET Sacred Heart at UConn UConn −8.4 71%
Sat, Nov 18 · 6:30 PM ET North Alabama at #7 Florida State Florida State −52.5 >99%