The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2023

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 65 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 6

Wilder than 6% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 18.8 expected

  • Biggest shockIowa State over Kansas State18% chance · won 42-35
  • Runner-upCalifornia over UCLA23% chance · won 33-7
  • Runner-upKentucky over Louisville26% chance · won 38-31

Upsets

Tue, Nov 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Eastern Michigan@Buffalo
36%
64%
24
11
✗
BUF −5.1
–
–

Wed, Nov 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Bowling Green@Western Michigan
53%
47%
34
10
✓
BGSU −1.7
–
–

Thu, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#16Ole Miss@Mississippi State
71%
29%
17
7
✓
MISS −9.2
–
–

Fri, Nov 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 6 games

Final
Iowa@Nebraska
59%
41%
13
10
✓
IOWA −4.0
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Boston College
69%
31%
45
20
✓
MIA −8.5
–
–
Final
TCU@#10Oklahoma
19%
81%
45
69
✓
OU −13.5
–
–
Final
Memphis@Temple
86%
14%
45
21
✓
MEM −17.8
–
–
Final
Toledo@Central Michigan
82%
18%
32
17
✓
TOL −15.0
–
–
Final
Ohio@Akron
80%
20%
25
14
✓
OHIO −14.2
–
–

Afternoon 4 games

Final
UTSA@Tulane
42%
58%
16
29
✓
TULN −2.6
–
–
Final
Utah State@New Mexico
63%
37%
44
41
✓
USU −5.6
–
–
Final
#19Missouri@Arkansas
66%
34%
48
14
✓
MIZ −7.2
–
–
Final
Air Force@Boise State
36%
64%
19
27
✓
BOIS −5.1
–
–

Prime time 3 games

Final
#5Penn StatevsMichigan State
95%
4.7%
42
0
✓
PSU −27.3
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#7Texas
14%
86%
7
57
✓
TEX −16.9
–
–
Final
#14Oregon State@#4Oregon
20%
80%
7
31
✓
ORE −12.7
–
–

Sat, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 17 games

Final
Kentucky@#21LouisvilleUpset
26%
74%
38
31
✗
LOU −9.6
–
–
Final
#15Texas A&M@#11LSU
30%
70%
30
42
✓
LSU −8.0
–
–
Final
#2Ohio State@#1Michigan
38%
62%
24
30
✓
MICH −4.3
–
–
Final
Indiana@Purdue
33%
67%
31
35
✓
PUR −6.4
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Sam Houston
55%
45%
20
23
✗
MTSU −2.6
–
–
Final
UConn@UMass
51%
49%
31
18
✓
CONN −0.7
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Duke
17%
83%
19
30
✓
DUKE −14.7
–
–
Final
Houston@UCF
23%
77%
13
27
✓
UCF −11.5
–
–
Final
Navy@SMU
10%
90%
14
59
✓
SMU −19.7
–
–
Final
Troy@Southern Miss
83%
17%
35
17
✓
TROY −15.8
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Kent State
82%
18%
37
27
✓
NIU −14.9
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Ball State
75%
25%
17
15
✓
M-OH −11.3
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Rice
38%
62%
21
24
✓
RICE −4.2
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Syracuse
34%
66%
31
35
✓
SYR −6.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@East Carolina
32%
68%
29
27
✗
ECU −7.1
–
–
Final
UAB@North Texas
39%
61%
42
45
✓
UNT −4.0
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Old Dominion
48%
52%
24
25
✓
ODU −0.3
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Western Kentucky@FIU
84%
16%
41
28
✓
WKU −16.2
–
–
Final
Colorado@#22Utah
13%
87%
17
23
✓
UTAH −17.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@Louisiana
17%
83%
21
52
✓
UL −14.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@UNLV
42%
58%
37
31
✗
UNLV −2.6
–
–
Final
#6Alabama@Auburn
77%
23%
27
24
✓
ALA −12.1
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Illinois
39%
61%
45
43
✗
ILL −3.8
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Minnesota
53%
47%
28
14
✓
WIS −1.9
–
–
Final
Maryland@Rutgers
55%
45%
42
24
✓
MD −2.4
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#18Tennessee
5.6%
94%
24
48
✓
TENN −25.1
–
–
Final
Liberty@UTEP
85%
15%
42
28
✓
LIB −16.9
–
–
Final
#23Arizona@Arizona State
78%
22%
59
23
✓
ARIZ −13.0
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Virginia
58%
42%
55
17
✓
VT −3.6
–
–
Final
BYU@Oklahoma State
24%
76%
34
40
✓
OKST −11.0
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Appalachian State
25%
75%
27
55
✓
APP −10.4
–
–
Final
James Madison@Coastal Carolina
49%
51%
56
14
✗
CCU −0.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Marshall
43%
57%
21
35
✓
MRSH −2.2
–
–
Final
Jacksonville State@New Mexico State
42%
58%
17
20
✓
NMSU −2.6
–
–
Final
Washington State@#9Washington
11%
89%
21
24
✓
WASH −19.5
–
–

Prime time 7 games

Final
#3Georgia@Georgia Tech
92%
7.9%
31
23
✓
UGA −23.0
–
–
Final
#17Clemson@South Carolina
62%
38%
16
7
✓
CLEM −5.3
–
–
Final
#25Kansas@Cincinnati
74%
26%
49
16
✓
KU −10.9
–
–
Final
Charlotte@USF
36%
64%
14
48
✓
USF −5.4
–
–
Final
#24North Carolina@NC StateUpset
55%
45%
20
39
✗
UNC −2.5
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#13Kansas StateUpset
18%
82%
42
35
✗
KSU −14.2
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Nevada
76%
24%
42
6
✓
WYO −11.8
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
California@UCLAUpset
23%
77%
33
7
✗
UCLA −11.3
–
–
Final
Fresno State@San Diego State
67%
33%
18
33
✗
FRES −7.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Hawaii
59%
41%
24
27
✗
CSU −4.0
–
–

Sun, Nov 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
#8Florida State@Florida
78%
22%
24
15
✓
FSU −12.9
–
–
Final
#12Notre Dame@Stanford
92%
8.2%
56
23
✓
ND −22.7
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Baylor
67%
33%
34
31
✓
WVU −7.6
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Texas State
65%
35%
44
52
✗
USA −6.5
–
–