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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2023

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 75 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 44

Wilder than 44% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 12.5 expected

  • Biggest shockMiami (OH) over Cincinnati10% chance · won 31-24
  • Runner-upFIU over UConn20% chance · won 24-17
  • Runner-upBYU over Arkansas21% chance · won 38-31

Upsets

Thu, Sep 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Navy@Memphis
16%
84%
24
28
✓
MEM −15.0
–
–

Fri, Sep 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Virginia@Maryland
11%
89%
14
42
✓
MD −19.0
–
–
Final
Army@UTSA
28%
72%
37
29
✗
UTSA −8.6
–
–

Sat, Sep 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 11 games

Final
Liberty@Buffalo
65%
35%
55
27
✓
LIB −6.3
–
–
Final
#7Penn State@Illinois
82%
18%
30
13
✓
PSU −14.4
–
–
Final
LouisvillevsIndiana
70%
30%
21
14
✓
LOU −8.5
–
–
Final
#15LSU@#25Mississippi State
47%
53%
41
14
✗
MSST −0.5
–
–
Final
#22Kansas State@MissouriUpset
61%
39%
27
30
✗
KSU −4.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Wisconsin
14%
86%
14
35
✓
WIS −16.4
–
–
Final
#4Florida State@Boston College
97%
3.2%
31
29
✓
FSU −29.2
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Old Dominion
83%
17%
27
24
✓
WAKE −15.1
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Ohio
69%
31%
7
10
✗
ISU −8.0
–
–
Final
UMass@Eastern Michigan
21%
79%
17
19
✓
EMU −11.8
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@#12Notre Dame
0.7%
99%
17
41
✓
ND −38.5
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
Northwestern@#20Duke
15%
85%
14
38
✓
DUKE −15.3
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#1Georgia
8.2%
92%
14
24
✓
UGA −21.2
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Iowa
4.3%
96%
10
41
✓
IOWA −26.4
–
–
Final
Minnesota@#16North Carolina
27%
73%
13
31
✓
UNC −9.0
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Rutgers
28%
72%
16
35
✓
RUTG −8.5
–
–
Final
#2Alabama@USF
98%
1.5%
17
3
✓
ALA −34.3
–
–
Final
FIU@UConnUpset
20%
80%
24
17
✗
CONN −12.6
–
–
Final
San Diego State@#18Oregon State
5.8%
94%
9
26
✓
ORST −24.0
–
–
Final
#11Oklahoma@Tulsa
91%
9.0%
66
17
✓
OU −21.3
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Appalachian State
22%
78%
28
43
✓
APP −11.7
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@#5Ohio State
4.0%
96%
10
63
✓
OSU −26.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#23Texas A&M
4.0%
96%
3
47
✓
TA&M −26.9
–
–
Final
Tulane@Southern Miss
77%
23%
21
3
✓
TULN −12.0
–
–
Final
#9Washington@Michigan State
81%
19%
41
7
✓
WASH −14.0
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Charlotte
70%
30%
41
25
✓
GAST −8.4
–
–

Prime time 15 games

Final
#14Tennessee@FloridaUpset
63%
37%
16
29
✗
TENN −5.7
–
–
Final
North Texas@Louisiana Tech
43%
57%
40
37
✗
LT −2.4
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Nebraska
18%
82%
11
35
✓
NEB −13.7
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@UNLV
55%
45%
37
40
✗
VAN −2.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@CincinnatiUpset
10.0%
90%
31
24
✗
CIN −19.4
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Oklahoma State
30%
70%
33
7
✗
OKST −7.5
–
–
Final
Louisiana@UAB
39%
61%
41
21
✗
UAB −3.7
–
–
Final
James Madison@Troy
34%
66%
16
14
✗
TROY −5.9
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Toledo
26%
74%
17
21
✓
TOL −9.4
–
–
Final
BYU@ArkansasUpset
21%
78%
38
31
✗
ARK −11.7
–
–
Final
Akron@Kentucky
6.0%
94%
3
35
✓
UK −23.7
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@#3Michigan
0.3%
>99%
6
31
✓
MICH −42.3
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#17Ole Miss
13%
87%
23
48
✓
MISS −17.0
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Purdue
58%
42%
35
20
✓
SYR −3.5
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@West Virginia
49%
51%
6
17
✓
PK
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Colorado State@Colorado
17%
83%
35
43
✓
COLO −14.0
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Arizona State
46%
54%
29
0
✗
ASU −0.9
–
–
Final
#19Kansas@Nevada
98%
2.4%
31
24
✓
KU −31.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@Arizona
7.8%
92%
10
31
✓
ARIZ −21.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Utah State@Air Force
24%
76%
21
39
✓
AF −10.4
–
–

Sun, Sep 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 5 games

Final
New Mexico State@New Mexico
47%
53%
27
17
✗
UNM −0.6
–
–
Final
Hawaii@#10Oregon
0.9%
99%
10
55
✓
ORE −37.0
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@#21Clemson
8.5%
92%
14
48
✓
CLEM −20.9
–
–
Final
TCU@Houston
55%
45%
36
13
✓
TCU −2.3
–
–
Final
Wyoming@#6Texas
1.8%
98%
10
31
✓
TEX −32.6
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 16 · 7:00 PM ET Samford at #24 Auburn Auburn −38.0 99%
Sat, Sep 16 · 7:00 PM ET Murray State at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee −32.1 98%
Sat, Sep 16 · 4:00 PM ET Idaho at California California −31.9 98%
Sun, Sep 17 · TBD Sacramento State at Stanford Stanford −5.9 66%
Sat, Sep 16 · 5:00 PM ET North Carolina Central at UCLA UCLA −36.9 99%
Sat, Sep 16 · 2:00 PM ET Weber State at #13 Utah Utah −40.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 16 · 5:00 PM ET Northern Colorado at Washington State Washington State −41.7 >99%
Thu, Sep 14 · 7:30 PM ET Bethune-Cookman at Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −49.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 16 · 2:00 PM ET VMI at NC State NC State −37.5 99%
Sat, Sep 16 · 12:00 PM ET Long Island University at Baylor Baylor −47.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 16 · 7:00 PM ET Tarleton State at Texas Tech Texas Tech −34.1 99%
Sat, Sep 16 · 6:30 PM ET Villanova at UCF UCF −41.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 16 · 2:00 PM ET Norfolk State at Temple Temple −25.4 95%
Sat, Sep 16 · 7:00 PM ET Prairie View A&M at SMU SMU −30.3 98%
Sat, Sep 16 · 7:00 PM ET Texas Southern at Rice Rice −32.5 98%
Sat, Sep 16 · 7:00 PM ET Duquesne at Coastal Carolina Coastal Carolina −36.1 99%
Sat, Sep 16 · 7:00 PM ET Stony Brook at Arkansas State Arkansas State −15.5 85%
Sat, Sep 16 · 8:30 PM ET Jackson State at Texas State Texas State −20.0 91%
Sat, Sep 16 · 2:00 PM ET Indiana State at Ball State Ball State −23.5 94%
Sat, Sep 16 · 12:00 PM ET Central Connecticut at Kent State Kent State −18.0 88%
Sat, Sep 16 · 12:00 PM ET North Dakota at Boise State Boise State −34.7 99%