The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2023

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 85 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 66

Wilder than 66% of weeks in the archive.

19 upsets against 13.3 expected

  • Biggest shockFordham over Buffalo10% chance · won 40-37
  • Runner-upSouthern Illinois over Northern Illinois17% chance · won 14-11
  • Runner-upIdaho over Nevada21% chance · won 33-6

Upsets

Fri, Sep 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Illinois@#23Kansas
28%
72%
23
34
✓
KU −8.4
–
–

Sat, Sep 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 8 games

Final
Vanderbilt@Wake Forest
30%
70%
20
36
✓
WAKE −7.7
–
–
Final
Nebraska@Colorado
60%
40%
14
36
✗
NEB −4.3
–
–
Final
Ball State@#4Georgia
0.3%
>99%
3
45
✓
UGA −42.4
–
–
Final
Purdue@Virginia Tech
47%
53%
24
17
✗
VT −0.7
–
–
Final
#11Utah@Baylor
78%
22%
20
13
✓
UTAH −12.3
–
–
Final
#15Notre Dame@NC State
65%
35%
45
24
✓
ND −6.5
–
–
Final
James Madison@Virginia
29%
71%
36
35
✗
UVA −8.1
–
–
Final
Troy@Kansas State
12%
88%
13
42
✓
KSU −17.5
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Iowa@Iowa State
49%
51%
20
13
✗
IOWA −0.1
–
–
Final
#16Texas A&M@Miami (FL)Upset
69%
31%
33
48
✗
TA&M −8.3
–
–
Final
UNLV@#3Michigan
0.7%
99%
7
35
✓
MICH −37.9
–
–
Final
UTEP@Northwestern
23%
77%
7
38
✓
NU −10.7
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Tulane
43%
57%
37
20
✗
TULN −2.2
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Syracuse
7.9%
92%
7
48
✓
SYR −21.5
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@UMass
62%
38%
41
28
✓
M-OH −5.0
–
–
Final
Texas State@UTSA
18%
82%
13
20
✓
UTSA −13.9
–
–
Final
Kent State@Arkansas
3.5%
96%
6
28
✓
ARK −27.9
–
–
Final
Marshall@East Carolina
29%
71%
31
13
✗
ECU −7.9
–
–
Final
Tulsa@#8Washington
3.1%
97%
10
43
✓
WASH −28.8
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@#17North Carolina
13%
87%
34
40
✓
UNC −16.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Liberty
30%
70%
17
33
✓
LIB −7.7
–
–
Final
SMU@#13Oklahoma
17%
83%
11
28
✓
OU −14.1
–
–
Final
UAB@Georgia Southern
52%
48%
35
49
✗
UAB −1.3
–
–
Final
Ohio@Florida Atlantic
27%
73%
17
10
✗
FAU −9.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Old Dominion
69%
31%
31
38
✗
UL −8.0
–
–
Final
North Texas@FIU
74%
26%
39
46
✗
UNT −10.6
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@Pittsburgh
35%
65%
27
21
✗
PITT −5.5
–
–

Prime time 15 games

Final
#10Texas@#2AlabamaUpset
25%
75%
34
24
✗
ALA −10.0
–
–
Final
Jacksonville State@Coastal Carolina
22%
78%
16
30
✓
CCU −11.7
–
–
Final
UConn@Georgia State
34%
66%
14
35
✓
GAST −6.0
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Missouri
12%
88%
19
23
✓
MIZ −17.7
–
–
Final
#12Oregon@Texas Tech
69%
31%
38
30
✓
ORE −8.1
–
–
Final
#24UCF@Boise State
62%
38%
18
16
✓
UCF −5.2
–
–
Final
Houston@RiceUpset
76%
24%
41
43
✗
HOU −11.5
–
–
Final
Memphis@Arkansas State
86%
14%
37
3
✓
MEM −17.5
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Maryland
4.3%
96%
20
38
✓
MD −26.4
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Minnesota
5.6%
94%
6
25
✓
MINN −24.4
–
–
Final
Arizona@#22Mississippi State
23%
77%
24
31
✓
MSST −10.7
–
–
Final
Temple@Rutgers
25%
75%
7
36
✓
RUTG −9.9
–
–
Final
#25Wisconsin@Washington StateUpset
53%
47%
22
31
✗
WIS −1.5
–
–
Final
UCLA@San Diego State
80%
20%
35
10
✓
UCLA −13.3
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@#5Florida State
2.1%
98%
13
66
✓
FSU −31.5
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
#21Auburn@California
55%
44%
14
10
✓
AUB −2.6
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Arizona State
48%
52%
27
15
✗
ASU −0.1
–
–
Final
Stanford@#9USC
7.1%
93%
10
56
✓
USC −22.4
–
–

Sun, Sep 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Air ForcevsSam Houston
85%
15%
13
3
✓
AF −16.5
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 9 · 12:00 PM ET Delaware State at Army Army −21.2 92%
Sat, Sep 9 · 7:30 PM ET McNeese at Florida Florida −43.1 >99%
Fri, Sep 8 · 7:00 PM ET Indiana State at Indiana Indiana −32.5 98%
Sat, Sep 9 · 3:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Kentucky Kentucky −49.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 7:00 PM ET Northwestern State at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −26.1 96%
Sat, Sep 9 · 7:30 PM ET Grambling at #14 LSU LSU −54.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 3:30 PM ET Richmond at Michigan State Michigan State −34.8 99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 12:00 PM ET Youngstown State at #1 Ohio State Ohio State −57.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 12:00 PM ET Delaware at #7 Penn State Penn State −32.7 98%
Sat, Sep 9 · 7:30 PM ET Furman at South Carolina South Carolina −36.3 99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 5:00 PM ET Austin Peay at #6 Tennessee Tennessee −49.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 7:00 PM ET Houston Christian at Western Kentucky Western Kentucky −44.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 9:00 PM ET UC Davis at #20 Oregon State Oregon State −40.5 >99%
Thu, Sep 7 · 7:30 PM ET Murray State at Louisville Louisville −41.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 12:00 PM ET Holy Cross at Boston College Boston College −20.1 91%
Sat, Sep 9 · 2:15 PM ET Charleston Southern at #19 Clemson Clemson −41.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 6:00 PM ET Lafayette at #18 Duke Duke −44.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 1:00 PM ET South Carolina State at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −38.4 99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 3:00 PM ET Southern Utah at BYU BYU −31.7 98%
Sun, Sep 10 · TBD Nicholls at TCU TCU −39.3 99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 6:00 PM ET Duquesne at West Virginia West Virginia −30.3 98%
Sat, Sep 9 · 7:00 PM ET Florida A&M at USF USF −20.3 91%
Sat, Sep 9 · 3:30 PM ET Wagner at Navy Navy −34.7 99%
Sun, Sep 10 · TBD Lamar at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −24.8 95%
Sat, Sep 9 · 5:00 PM ET SE Louisiana at South Alabama South Alabama −34.3 99%
Sat, Sep 9 · 1:30 PM ET New Hampshire at Central Michigan Central Michigan −20.4 91%
Sat, Sep 9 · 3:30 PM ET Southern Illinois at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −14.3 83%
Sat, Sep 9 · 3:30 PM ET Texas Southern at Toledo Toledo −32.7 98%
Sat, Sep 9 · 6:00 PM ET Morgan State at Akron Akron −25.3 95%
Sat, Sep 9 · 2:00 PM ET Eastern Illinois at Bowling Green Bowling Green −15.4 85%
Sat, Sep 9 · 6:00 PM ET Fordham at Buffalo Buffalo −19.3 90%
Sat, Sep 9 · 9:00 PM ET Eastern Washington at Fresno State Fresno State −30.9 98%
Sat, Sep 9 · 11:59 PM ET UAlbany at Hawaii Hawaii −21.4 92%
Sat, Sep 9 · 7:00 PM ET Idaho at Nevada Nevada −12.1 79%
Sun, Sep 10 · TBD Tennessee Tech at New Mexico New Mexico −13.8 82%
Sat, Sep 9 · 4:00 PM ET Cal Poly at San Jose State San Jose State −25.4 95%
Sun, Sep 10 · TBD Idaho State at Utah State Utah State −28.2 97%
Sat, Sep 9 · 4:00 PM ET Portland State at Wyoming Wyoming −27.2 96%