The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 4 slate, 2023

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 67 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 5

Wilder than 5% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 18.4 expected

  • Biggest shockCentral Michigan over South Alabama10% chance · won 34-30
  • Runner-upGeorgia Tech over Wake Forest31% chance · won 30-16
  • Runner-upWyoming over Appalachian State35% chance · won 22-19

Upsets

Thu, Sep 21

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Georgia State@Coastal Carolina
36%
64%
30
17
✗
CCU −5.9
–
–

Fri, Sep 22

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Wisconsin@Purdue
61%
39%
38
17
✓
WIS −4.4
–
–
Final
NC State@Virginia
72%
28%
24
21
✓
NCSU −9.8
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Boise State@San Diego State
68%
32%
34
31
✓
BOIS −7.6
–
–
Final
Air Force@San Jose State
61%
39%
45
20
✓
AF −4.6
–
–

Sat, Sep 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Rutgers@#6Michigan
14%
86%
7
31
✓
MICH −18.3
–
–
Final
Army@#23Syracuse
21%
79%
16
29
✓
SYR −13.3
–
–
Final
#24Auburn@#19Texas A&M
38%
62%
10
27
✓
TA&M −5.3
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Troy
57%
42%
24
27
✗
WKU −3.0
–
–
Final
Kentucky@Vanderbilt
70%
30%
45
28
✓
UK −8.8
–
–
Final
#10Florida State@#17Clemson
57%
43%
31
24
✓
FSU −2.7
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Marshall
48%
52%
17
24
✓
MRSH −1.0
–
–
Final
#9Oklahoma@Cincinnati
84%
16%
20
6
✓
OU −16.4
–
–
Final
SMU@TCU
39%
61%
17
34
✓
TCU −4.8
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Northern Illinois
59%
41%
22
14
✓
TLSA −3.8
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Toledo
13%
87%
31
49
✓
TOL −18.9
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Ball State
60%
40%
40
3
✓
GASO −4.0
–
–

Afternoon 20 games

Final
#16Ole Miss@#8Alabama
30%
70%
10
24
✓
ALA −8.9
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Illinois
20%
80%
17
23
✓
ILL −14.1
–
–
Final
Maryland@Michigan State
62%
38%
31
9
✓
MD −4.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Nebraska
16%
84%
14
28
✓
NEB −16.4
–
–
Final
#18Duke@UConn
95%
5.2%
41
7
✓
DUKE −26.8
–
–
Final
Colorado@#11Oregon
9.0%
91%
6
42
✓
ORE −22.4
–
–
Final
#22UCLA@#14Utah
37%
63%
7
14
✓
UTAH −5.7
–
–
Final
Boston College@Louisville
18%
82%
28
56
✓
LOU −15.5
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Temple
82%
18%
41
7
✓
MIA −14.9
–
–
Final
BYU@Kansas
27%
73%
27
38
✓
KU −10.2
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@West Virginia
54%
46%
13
20
✗
TTU −1.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@UMass
50%
50%
34
31
✗
MASS −0.2
–
–
Final
Ohio@Bowling Green
62%
38%
38
7
✓
OHIO −4.8
–
–
Final
UTSA@#21Tennessee
22%
78%
14
45
✓
TENN −13.1
–
–
Final
Oklahoma State@Iowa State
32%
68%
27
34
✓
ISU −8.0
–
–
Final
Rice@USF
53%
47%
29
42
✗
RICE −1.3
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Jacksonville State
38%
62%
0
21
✓
JXST −5.4
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@South AlabamaUpset
10%
90%
34
30
✗
USA −21.2
–
–
Final
Liberty@FIU
80%
20%
38
6
✓
LIB −14.0
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@Wake Forest
31%
69%
30
16
✗
WAKE −8.3
–
–

Prime time 19 games

Final
Charlotte@Florida
4.5%
96%
7
22
✓
FLA −28.2
–
–
Final
Sam Houston@Houston
18%
82%
7
38
✓
HOU −15.3
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#12LSU
19%
81%
31
34
✓
LSU −14.5
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Middle Tennessee
39%
61%
31
23
✗
MTSU −4.7
–
–
Final
Arizona@Stanford
63%
37%
21
20
✓
ARIZ −5.6
–
–
Final
#20Oregon State@Washington StateUpset
56%
44%
35
38
✗
ORST −2.5
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Wyoming
65%
35%
19
22
✗
APP −6.4
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Arkansas State
63%
37%
37
44
✗
USM −5.5
–
–
Final
Nevada@Texas State
15%
85%
24
35
✓
TXST −17.4
–
–
Final
UAB@#2Georgia
1.3%
99%
21
49
✓
UGA −37.1
–
–
Final
Akron@Indiana
13%
87%
27
29
✓
IU −18.9
–
–
Final
MemphisvsMissouri
50%
50%
27
34
✗
MIZ −0.1
–
–
Final
Minnesota@Northwestern
61%
39%
34
37
✗
MINN −4.7
–
–
Final
Iowa@#4Penn State
16%
84%
0
31
✓
PSU −16.5
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@South Carolina
46%
54%
30
37
✓
SC −1.8
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@#13Notre Dame
66%
34%
17
14
✓
OSU −6.7
–
–
Final
#7Texas@Baylor
86%
14%
38
6
✓
TEX −18.1
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Louisiana
16%
84%
38
45
✓
UL −16.9
–
–
Final
UNLV@UTEP
62%
38%
45
28
✓
UNLV −5.1
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
#5USC@Arizona State
96%
3.5%
42
28
✓
USC −29.9
–
–
Final
California@#3Washington
9.2%
91%
32
59
✓
WASH −22.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@Fresno State
11%
89%
10
53
✓
FRES −20.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@Hawaii
52%
48%
17
20
✗
NMSU −0.8
–
–

Sun, Sep 24

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#15North Carolina@Pittsburgh
76%
24%
41
24
✓
UNC −11.4
–
–
Final
UCF@#25Kansas State
41%
59%
31
44
✓
KSU −3.8
–
–
Final
James Madison@Utah State
40%
60%
45
38
✗
USU −4.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 23 · 7:00 PM ET Nicholls at Tulane Tulane −44.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 23 · 6:00 PM ET Gardner-Webb at East Carolina East Carolina −22.0 91%
Sat, Sep 23 · 3:30 PM ET East Texas A&M at Old Dominion Old Dominion −13.4 79%
Sat, Sep 23 · 3:30 PM ET Delaware State at Miami (OH) Miami (OH) −25.3 94%