The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2023

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 51 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 25

Wilder than 25% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 14.9 expected

  • Biggest shockGeorgia Tech over Miami (FL)17% chance · won 23-20
  • Runner-upOklahoma State over Kansas State19% chance · won 29-21
  • Runner-upUConn over Rice28% chance · won 38-31

Upsets

Wed, Oct 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
FIU@New Mexico State
28%
72%
17
34
✓
NMSU −9.8
–
–

Thu, Oct 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Sam Houston@Liberty
14%
86%
16
21
✓
LIB −17.9
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Jacksonville State@Middle Tennessee
50%
50%
45
30
✗
MTSU −0.3
–
–

Fri, Oct 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#23Kansas State@Oklahoma StateUpset
81%
19%
21
29
✗
KSU −14.7
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Western Kentucky@Louisiana Tech
74%
26%
35
28
✓
WKU −10.8
–
–

Sat, Oct 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 10 games

Final
Boston College@Army
30%
70%
27
24
✗
ARMY −9.1
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Mississippi State
9.1%
91%
28
41
✓
MSST −22.2
–
–
Final
#17LSU@Missouri
64%
36%
49
39
✓
LSU −6.1
–
–
Final
#22Maryland@#4Ohio State
20%
80%
17
37
✓
OSU −13.8
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#24Wisconsin
28%
72%
13
24
✓
WIS −9.6
–
–
Final
#7Oklahomavs#3Texas
43%
57%
34
30
✗
TEX −3.0
–
–
Final
Toledo@UMass
89%
11%
41
24
✓
TOL −20.5
–
–
Final
Marshall@NC State
35%
65%
41
48
✓
NCSU −6.6
–
–
Final
UTSA@Temple
75%
25%
49
34
✓
UTSA −11.3
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Buffalo
49%
51%
13
37
✓
BUF −0.5
–
–

Afternoon 19 games

Final
Washington State@#25UCLA
42%
58%
17
25
✓
UCLA −3.6
–
–
Final
Purdue@Iowa
34%
66%
14
20
✓
IOWA −6.7
–
–
Final
#5Alabama@#14Texas A&M
64%
36%
26
20
✓
ALA −5.7
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@#15Clemson
13%
87%
12
17
✓
CLEM −18.7
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@#10Florida State
8.1%
92%
17
39
✓
FSU −23.3
–
–
Final
Syracuse@#16North Carolina
33%
67%
7
40
✓
UNC −7.4
–
–
Final
North Texas@Navy
28%
72%
24
27
✓
NAVY −9.8
–
–
Final
Texas State@Louisiana
49%
51%
30
34
✓
UL −0.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@Eastern Michigan
42%
58%
10
24
✓
EMU −3.6
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Miami (OH)
28%
72%
0
27
✓
M-OH −9.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Ohio
12%
88%
17
42
✓
OHIO −19.9
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Akron
52%
48%
55
14
✓
NIU −0.7
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Florida
18%
82%
14
38
✓
FLA −15.6
–
–
Final
UCF@Kansas
40%
60%
22
51
✓
KU −4.1
–
–
Final
USF@UAB
52%
48%
35
56
✗
USF −0.9
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Troy
22%
78%
3
37
✓
TROY −13.1
–
–
Final
UConn@Rice
28%
72%
38
31
✗
RICE −10.0
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Florida Atlantic
48%
52%
17
20
✓
FAU −1.1
–
–
Final
Colorado@Arizona State
62%
38%
27
24
✓
COLO −4.7
–
–

Prime time 6 games

Final
Kentucky@#9Georgia
18%
82%
13
51
✓
UGA −15.1
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Louisiana-Monroe
66%
34%
55
7
✓
USA −6.6
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Southern Miss
46%
54%
17
13
✗
USM −1.9
–
–
Final
#2Michigan@Minnesota
88%
12%
52
10
✓
MICH −19.1
–
–
Final
Arkansas@#18Ole Miss
25%
75%
20
27
✓
MISS −11.4
–
–
Final
#12Notre Dame@LouisvilleUpset
66%
34%
20
33
✗
ND −7.0
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
#21Oregon State@California
72%
28%
52
40
✓
ORST −9.7
–
–
Final
Arizona@#11USC
14%
86%
41
43
✓
USC −18.1
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Nebraska@Illinois
40%
60%
20
7
✗
ILL −4.5
–
–

Sun, Oct 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 6 games

Final
Georgia Tech@Miami (FL)Upset
18%
82%
23
20
✗
MIA −15.6
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@Baylor
63%
37%
39
14
✓
TTU −5.3
–
–
Final
TCU@Iowa State
67%
33%
14
27
✗
TCU −7.3
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Utah State
44%
56%
24
44
✓
USU −2.4
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Wyoming
63%
37%
19
24
✗
FRES −5.5
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Boise State
27%
73%
27
35
✓
BOIS −10.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 7 · 3:00 PM ET Howard at Northwestern Northwestern −37.7 99%
Sat, Oct 7 · 12:00 PM ET William & Mary at Virginia Virginia −19.6 88%