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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 5 slate, 2023

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 59 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 10

Wilder than 10% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 16.9 expected

  • Biggest shockBowling Green over Georgia Tech14% chance · won 38-27
  • Runner-upWest Virginia over TCU29% chance · won 24-21
  • Runner-upTroy over Georgia State29% chance · won 28-7

Upsets

Thu, Sep 28

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Middle Tennessee@Western Kentucky
30%
70%
10
31
✓
WKU −9.0
–
–
Final
Temple@Tulsa
38%
62%
26
48
✓
TLSA −5.4
–
–

Fri, Sep 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
Louisville@NC State
64%
36%
13
10
✓
LOU −5.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@UTEP
48%
52%
24
10
✗
UTEP −0.7
–
–
Final
#15Utah@Oregon StateUpset
56%
44%
7
21
✗
UTAH −2.3
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Cincinnati@BYU
49%
51%
27
35
✓
BYU −0.5
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Jacksonville State@Sam Houston
62%
38%
35
28
✓
JXST −4.8
–
–

Sat, Sep 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
#16Texas A&MvsArkansas
72%
28%
34
22
✓
TA&M −9.8
–
–
Final
Florida@Kentucky
51%
49%
14
33
✗
FLA −0.1
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Minnesota
25%
75%
24
35
✓
MINN −11.4
–
–
Final
#1Penn State@Northwestern
93%
7.1%
41
13
✓
PSU −24.2
–
–
Final
Utah State@UConn
60%
40%
34
33
✓
USU −4.0
–
–
Final
#9USC@Colorado
89%
11%
48
41
✓
USC −20.6
–
–
Final
#19Clemson@Syracuse
53%
47%
31
14
✓
CLEM −1.0
–
–
Final
UAB@Tulane
15%
85%
23
35
✓
TULN −17.5
–
–
Final
South Alabama@James Madison
61%
39%
23
31
✗
USA −4.3
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Akron
42%
58%
13
10
✗
AKR −3.3
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Central Michigan
39%
61%
23
26
✓
CMU −4.7
–
–
Final
Virginia@Boston College
43%
57%
24
27
✓
BC −2.9
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Kent State
77%
23%
23
3
✓
M-OH −12.1
–
–

Afternoon 20 games

Final
Arizona State@California
22%
78%
21
24
✓
CAL −12.7
–
–
Final
#6Georgia@Auburn
77%
23%
27
20
✓
UGA −12.4
–
–
Final
Indiana@#21Maryland
15%
85%
17
44
✓
MD −17.1
–
–
Final
#4Michigan@Nebraska
92%
8.2%
45
7
✓
MICH −23.0
–
–
Final
Illinois@Purdue
55%
45%
19
44
✗
ILL −1.9
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Georgia TechUpset
14%
86%
38
27
✗
GT −18.2
–
–
Final
Kansas@#5Texas
17%
84%
14
40
✓
TEX −16.3
–
–
Final
Houston@Texas Tech
31%
69%
28
49
✓
TTU −8.2
–
–
Final
Baylor@UCF
29%
71%
36
35
✗
UCF −9.2
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@UMass
57%
43%
52
28
✓
ARST −2.7
–
–
Final
USF@Navy
37%
63%
44
30
✗
NAVY −5.6
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Marshall
21%
79%
35
41
✓
MRSH −13.5
–
–
Final
Ball State@Western Michigan
43%
57%
24
42
✓
WMU −3.0
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Toledo
13%
87%
33
35
✓
TOL −18.6
–
–
Final
Missouri@Vanderbilt
73%
27%
38
21
✓
MIZ −10.0
–
–
Final
Boise State@Memphis
39%
61%
32
35
✓
MEM −4.9
–
–
Final
Hawaii@UNLV
25%
75%
20
44
✓
UNLV −11.4
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Wyoming
17%
83%
26
35
✓
WYO −16.0
–
–
Final
#13LSU@#20Ole Miss
50%
50%
49
55
✗
LSU −0.1
–
–
Final
#8Oregon@Stanford
92%
8.3%
42
6
✓
ORE −22.9
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
Iowa State@#10Oklahoma
10%
90%
20
50
✓
OU −20.9
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Rice
53%
47%
17
24
✗
ECU −1.2
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Georgia Southern
50%
50%
28
38
✗
CCU −0.1
–
–
Final
Troy@Georgia State
29%
71%
28
7
✗
GAST −9.2
–
–
Final
Texas State@Southern Miss
64%
36%
50
36
✓
TXST −5.7
–
–
Final
Michigan State@Iowa
30%
70%
16
26
✓
IOWA −8.8
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#18Tennessee
30%
70%
20
41
✓
TENN −8.9
–
–
Final
#12Notre Dame@#17Duke
50%
50%
21
14
✗
DUKE −0.3
–
–
Final
Charlotte@SMU
10%
90%
16
34
✓
SMU −21.2
–
–
Final
#7Alabama@Mississippi State
80%
20%
40
17
✓
ALA −13.9
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
#3Washington@Arizona
88%
12%
31
24
✓
WASH −19.6
–
–
Final
Nevada@Fresno State
7.4%
93%
9
27
✓
FRES −24.1
–
–

Sun, Oct 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 4 games

Final
Pittsburgh@Virginia Tech
57%
43%
21
38
✗
PITT −2.9
–
–
Final
West Virginia@#25TCUUpset
29%
71%
24
21
✗
TCU −9.3
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Louisiana-Monroe
79%
21%
41
40
✓
APP −13.5
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Air Force
20%
80%
10
49
✓
AF −13.8
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 30 · 3:30 PM ET Wagner at Rutgers Rutgers −50.3 >99%
Sat, Sep 30 · 7:00 PM ET Abilene Christian at North Texas North Texas −23.4 92%
Sat, Sep 30 · 7:00 PM ET Utah Tech at Colorado State Colorado State −16.9 84%