Week 1 slate, 2023

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 94 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

No games match.

Sat, Aug 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final

Navyvs#16Notre Dame

21%
78%

3
42

✓

ND −11.7

–

–

Afternoon 1 game

Final

UTEP@Jacksonville State

48%
52%

14
17

✓

JXST −0.2

–

–

Prime time 4 games

Final

UMass@New Mexico StateUpset

17%
83%

41
30

✗

NMSU −14.3

–

–

Final

Ohio@San Diego State

38%
62%

13
20

✓

SDSU −4.0

–

–

Final

Hawaii@Vanderbilt

17%
83%

28
35

✓

VAN −14.2

–

–

Final

FIU@Louisiana Tech

24%
76%

17
22

✓

LT −10.2

–

–

Sun, Aug 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final

San Jose State@#11USC

8.3%
92%

28
56

✓

USC −21.1

–

–

Thu, Aug 31

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final

Kent State@UCF

9.0%
91%

6
56

✓

UCF −20.4

–

–

Final

NC State@UConn

73%
27%

24
14

✓

NCSU −9.8

–

–

Fri, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final

Central Michigan@Michigan State

12%
88%

7
31

✓

MSU −17.4

–

–

Final

Miami (OH)@Miami (FL)

27%
73%

3
38

✓

MIA −9.0

–

–

Final

LouisvillevsGeorgia Tech

68%
32%

39
34

✓

LOU −7.6

–

–

Late night 1 game

Final

Stanford@Hawaii

71%
29%

37
24

✓

STAN −9.2

–

–

Time TBD 2 games

Final

Nebraska@Minnesota

27%
73%

10
13

✓

MINN −9.1

–

–

Final

Florida@#12Utah

27%
73%

11
24

✓

UTAH −8.8

–

–

Sat, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 11 games

Final

Utah State@Iowa

11%
89%

14
24

✓

IOWA −18.5

–

–

Final

Ball State@Kentucky

9.1%
91%

14
44

✓

UK −20.3

–

–

Final

Bowling Green@Liberty

29%
71%

24
34

✓

LIB −7.9

–

–

Final

East Carolina@#3Michigan

4.8%
95%

3
30

✓

MICH −25.6

–

–

Final

Fresno State@Purdue

31%
69%

39
35

✗

PUR −7.0

–

–

Final

Louisiana Tech@SMU

11%
89%

14
38

✓

SMU −18.3

–

–

Final

Virginiavs#9Tennessee

12%
88%

13
49

✓

TENN −18.1

–

–

Final

Colorado@#20TCUUpset

9.8%
90%

45
42

✗

TCU −19.7

–

–

Final

Northern Illinois@Boston College

26%
74%

27
24

✗

BC −9.6

–

–

Final

Arkansas State@#17Oklahoma

4.5%
96%

0
73

✓

OU −26.0

–

–

Final

Akron@Temple

27%
73%

21
24

✓

TEM −8.8

–

–

Afternoon 8 games

Final

UMass@Auburn

2.2%
98%

14
59

✓

AUB −31.1

–

–

Final

#1Ohio State@Indiana

90%
9.6%

23
3

✓

OSU −20.7

–

–

Final

Buffalo@#23Wisconsin

8.7%
91%

17
38

✓

WIS −20.7

–

–

Final

USF@Western Kentucky

21%
79%

24
41

✓

WKU −12.2

–

–

Final

Boise State@#14Washington

24%
76%

19
56

✓

WASH −10.3

–

–

Final

Rice@#6Texas

3.1%
97%

10
37

✓

TEX −28.8

–

–

Final

California@North Texas

55%
45%

58
21

✓

CAL −2.5

–

–

Final

Nevada@#11USC

2.7%
97%

14
66

✓

USC −29.8

–

–

Prime time 10 games

Final

New Mexico@#15Texas A&M

2.5%
98%

10
52

✓

TA&M −30.2

–

–

Final

Army@Louisiana-Monroe

65%
35%

13
17

✗

ARMY −6.4

–

–

Final

Washington State@Colorado State

67%
33%

50
24

✓

WSU −7.4

–

–

Final

Texas State@BaylorUpset

10%
90%

42
31

✗

BAY −19.0

–

–

Final

UTSA@Houston

49%
51%

14
17

✓

UTSA −0.1

–

–

Final

Middle Tennessee@#4Alabama

2.6%
97%

7
56

✓

ALA −30.0

–

–

Final

Toledo@Illinois

27%
73%

28
30

✓

ILL −9.0

–

–

Final

#24South Carolinavs#19North Carolina

46%
54%

17
31

✓

UNC −1.0

–

–

Final

West Virginia@#7Penn State

12%
88%

15
38

✓

PSU −17.7

–

–

Final

Texas Tech@WyomingUpset

78%
22%

33
35

✗

TTU −12.6

–

–

Late night 2 games

Final

Sam Houston@BYU

17%
83%

0
14

✓

BYU −14.5

–

–

Final

Coastal Carolina@UCLA

24%
76%

13
27

✓

UCLA −10.6

–

–

Sun, Sep 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final

Northwestern@Rutgers

45%
55%

7
24

✓

RUTG −1.5

–

–

Afternoon 1 game

Final

Oregon State@San Jose State

70%
30%

42
17

✓

ORST −8.8

–

–

Prime time 1 game

Final

#5LSUvs#13Florida State

56%
44%

24
45

✗

LSU −3.0

–

–

Time TBD 2 games

Final

Old Dominion@Virginia Tech

18%
82%

17
36

✓

VT −13.9

–

–

Final

South Alabama@Tulane

33%
67%

17
37

✓

TULN −6.3

–

–

Tue, Sep 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final

#10Clemson@DukeUpset

61%
39%

7
28

✗

CLEM −4.9

–

–

Against FCS opponents

When	Game	Model	Win
Sat, Sep 2 · 4:00 PM ET	Western Carolina vs #25 Arkansas	Arkansas −44.5	>99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 6:30 PM ET	Maine at FIU	FIU −15.3	85%
Sat, Sep 2 · 6:00 PM ET	UT Martin at #2 Georgia	Georgia −51.5	>99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 2:00 PM ET	East Tennessee State at Jacksonville State	Jacksonville State −15.2	84%
Sat, Sep 2 · 3:30 PM ET	Towson at #22 Maryland	Maryland −42.1	>99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 4:00 PM ET	SE Louisiana at #18 Mississippi State	Mississippi State −40.5	>99%
Fri, Sep 1 · TBD	South Dakota at Missouri	Missouri −34.6	99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 9:00 PM ET	Western Illinois at New Mexico State	New Mexico State −22.1	93%
Sat, Sep 2 · 2:00 PM ET	Mercer at #21 Ole Miss	Ole Miss −44.4	>99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 9:00 PM ET	Incarnate Word at UTEP	UTEP −15.5	85%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Alabama A&M at Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt −28.0	96%
Thu, Aug 31 · 10:00 PM ET	Southern Utah at Arizona State	Arizona State −33.2	98%
Sat, Sep 2 · 10:00 PM ET	Northern Arizona at Arizona	Arizona −33.9	99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 3:00 PM ET	Portland State at #8 Oregon	Oregon −42.4	>99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 3:30 PM ET	Tennessee State at #16 Notre Dame	Notre Dame −45.8	>99%
Thu, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET	Elon at Wake Forest	Wake Forest −34.2	99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 3:30 PM ET	Wofford at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh −35.0	99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 4:00 PM ET	Colgate at Syracuse	Syracuse −38.2	99%
Sat, Sep 2 · TBD	Missouri State at Kansas	Kansas −13.6	82%
Sat, Sep 2 · 3:30 PM ET	Eastern Kentucky at Cincinnati	Cincinnati −34.8	99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 2:00 PM ET	Northern Iowa at Iowa State	Iowa State −32.3	98%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Southeast Missouri State at Kansas State	Kansas State −39.8	>99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Central Arkansas at Oklahoma State	Oklahoma State −41.2	>99%
Fri, Sep 1 · TBD	Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Tulsa	Tulsa −27.1	96%
Fri, Sep 1 · TBD	North Carolina A&T at UAB	UAB −29.9	97%
Sat, Sep 2 · 6:00 PM ET	South Carolina State at Charlotte	Charlotte −19.1	90%
Sat, Sep 2 · 6:00 PM ET	Monmouth at Florida Atlantic	Florida Atlantic −21.6	92%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Bethune-Cookman at Memphis	Memphis −37.5	99%
Thu, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET	Rhode Island at Georgia State	Georgia State −26.1	96%
Sat, Sep 2 · 3:30 PM ET	Gardner-Webb at Appalachian State	Appalachian State −28.1	97%
Sat, Sep 2 · 6:00 PM ET	The Citadel at Georgia Southern	Georgia Southern −29.4	97%
Sat, Sep 2 · 6:00 PM ET	Bucknell at James Madison	James Madison −25.8	95%
Sat, Sep 2 · 6:00 PM ET	UAlbany at Marshall	Marshall −31.6	98%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:30 PM ET	Northwestern State at Louisiana	Louisiana −34.0	99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Alcorn State at Southern Miss	Southern Miss −25.4	95%
Sat, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET	Stephen F. Austin at Troy	Troy −39.1	99%
Thu, Aug 31 · 7:00 PM ET	Saint Francis at Western Michigan	Western Michigan −22.8	93%
Fri, Sep 1 · 6:30 PM ET	Howard at Eastern Michigan	Eastern Michigan −25.6	95%
Sat, Sep 2 · 2:00 PM ET	Long Island University at Ohio	Ohio −34.8	99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 1:00 PM ET	Robert Morris at Air Force	Air Force −35.0	99%
Sat, Sep 2 · 10:30 PM ET	Idaho State at San Diego State	San Diego State −31.5	98%
Sat, Sep 2 · 4:00 PM ET	Bryant at UNLV	UNLV −25.2	95%