The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 14 slate, 2022

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 12 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 14

Wilder than 14% of weeks in the archive.

2 upsets against 3.9 expected

  • Biggest shockFresno State over Boise State37% chance · won 28-16
  • Runner-upKansas State over TCU45% chance · won 31-28
  • Runner-upToledo over Ohio54% chance · won 17-7

Fri, Dec 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
Akron@Buffalo
20%
80%
22
23
✓
BUF −12.8
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
North Texas@UTSA
25%
75%
27
48
✓
UTSA −10.5
–
–
Final
#8Utahvs#13USC
56%
44%
47
24
✓
UTAH −2.8
–
–

Sat, Dec 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 2 games

Final
#10Kansas Statevs#9TCU
45%
55%
31
28
✗
TCU −1.6
–
–
Final
ToledovsOhio
54%
46%
17
7
✓
TOL −2.0
–
–

Afternoon 4 games

Final
Coastal Carolina@Troy
34%
66%
26
45
✓
TROY −6.2
–
–
Final
UCF@Tulane
45%
55%
28
45
✓
TULN −1.6
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Boise State
37%
63%
28
16
✗
BOIS −4.7
–
–
Final
#15LSUvs#1Georgia
14%
86%
30
50
✓
UGA −16.6
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
#11ClemsonvsNorth Carolina
72%
28%
39
10
✓
CLEM −9.5
–
–
Final
Purduevs#3Michigan
10%
90%
22
43
✓
MICH −19.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Dec 3 · 3:00 PM ET Valparaiso at New Mexico State New Mexico State −3.9 61%