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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 13 slate, 2022

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 63 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 81

Wilder than 81% of weeks in the archive.

20 upsets against 17.4 expected

  • Biggest shockNew Mexico State over Liberty8.0% chance · won 49-14
  • Runner-upNebraska over Iowa17% chance · won 24-17
  • Runner-upAkron over Northern Illinois18% chance · won 44-12

Upsets

Wed, Nov 23

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Ball State@Miami (OH)
37%
63%
17
18
✓
M-OH −4.7
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@Ohio
25%
75%
14
38
✓
OHIO −10.3
–
–

Fri, Nov 25

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 5 games

Final
Baylor@#6Texas
20%
80%
27
38
✓
TEX −12.9
–
–
Final
Utah State@Boise State
12%
88%
23
42
✓
BOIS −18.0
–
–
Final
Tulane@Cincinnati
41%
59%
27
24
✗
CIN −3.2
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Eastern Michigan
53%
47%
19
38
✗
CMU −1.5
–
–
Final
Toledo@Western Michigan
72%
28%
14
20
✗
TOL −9.9
–
–

Afternoon 6 games

Final
Arizona State@Arizona
45%
55%
35
38
✓
ARIZ −1.4
–
–
Final
Arkansas@Missouri
66%
34%
27
29
✗
ARK −7.2
–
–
Final
NC State@North Carolina
44%
56%
30
27
✗
UNC −1.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico@Colorado State
35%
65%
0
17
✓
CSU −5.7
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#19IowaUpset
17%
83%
24
17
✗
IOWA −14.9
–
–
Final
#22UCLA@California
75%
25%
35
28
✓
UCLA −11.3
–
–

Prime time 1 game

Final
Florida@#10Florida State
27%
73%
38
45
✓
FSU −9.4
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
Wyoming@Fresno State
20%
80%
0
30
✓
FRES −13.0
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#18Mississippi State@Ole Miss
48%
52%
24
22
✗
MISS −0.5
–
–

Sat, Nov 26

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 15 games

Final
Georgia Tech@#2Georgia
0.6%
99%
14
37
✓
UGA −40.3
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#9ClemsonUpset
21%
79%
31
30
✗
CLEM −12.5
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Oklahoma StateUpset
22%
78%
24
19
✗
OKST −12.0
–
–
Final
Army@UMass
93%
7.0%
44
7
✓
ARMY −24.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@LibertyUpset
8.0%
92%
49
14
✗
LIB −22.0
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Maryland
17%
83%
0
37
✓
MD −14.8
–
–
Final
#3Michigan@#1Ohio State
29%
71%
45
23
✗
OSU −8.5
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@James Madison
44%
56%
7
47
✓
JMU −2.1
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@South Alabama
19%
81%
20
27
✓
USA −13.4
–
–
Final
Georgia State@Marshall
32%
68%
23
28
✓
MRSH −6.8
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Florida Atlantic
59%
41%
32
31
✓
WKU −4.2
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Temple
77%
23%
49
46
✓
ECU −12.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@Buffalo
42%
58%
30
27
✗
BUF −2.7
–
–
Final
Akron@Northern IllinoisUpset
18%
82%
44
12
✗
NIU −14.3
–
–
Final
Rice@North Texas
19%
81%
17
21
✓
UNT −13.3
–
–

Afternoon 20 games

Final
#21Louisville@KentuckyUpset
55%
45%
13
26
✗
LOU −2.5
–
–
Final
Auburn@#4Alabama
7.1%
93%
27
49
✓
ALA −23.1
–
–
Final
#15Oregon@#20Oregon State
53%
47%
34
38
✗
ORE −1.5
–
–
Final
#25Illinois@Northwestern
82%
18%
41
3
✓
ILL −14.9
–
–
Final
#17Minnesota@Wisconsin
51%
49%
23
16
✓
MINN −0.8
–
–
Final
Purdue@Indiana
70%
30%
30
16
✓
PUR −9.1
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Duke
63%
37%
31
34
✗
WAKE −5.7
–
–
Final
Hawaii@San Jose State
15%
85%
14
27
✓
SJSU −16.1
–
–
Final
Memphis@SMU
42%
58%
31
34
✓
SMU −2.7
–
–
Final
Troy@Arkansas State
76%
24%
48
19
✓
TROY −12.0
–
–
Final
UAB@Louisiana Tech
82%
18%
37
27
✓
UAB −15.2
–
–
Final
UTEP@UTSA
8.3%
92%
31
34
✓
UTSA −21.7
–
–
Final
#8Utah@Colorado
97%
2.8%
63
21
✓
UTAH −30.9
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#11TCU
24%
76%
14
62
✓
TCU −10.6
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#5Penn State
10%
90%
16
35
✓
PSU −19.6
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Louisiana-Monroe
58%
42%
20
10
✓
USM −3.8
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Texas State
67%
33%
41
13
✓
UL −7.7
–
–
Final
Nevada@UNLV
28%
72%
22
27
✓
UNLV −8.7
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Georgia Southern
68%
32%
48
51
✗
APP −7.9
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@FIU
87%
13%
33
28
✓
MTSU −18.6
–
–

Prime time 8 games

Final
#7Tennessee@Vanderbilt
91%
9.2%
56
0
✓
TENN −21.6
–
–
Final
#24Oklahoma@Texas TechUpset
55%
45%
48
51
✗
OU −2.5
–
–
Final
#14Notre Dame@#16USC
45%
55%
27
38
✓
USC −1.6
–
–
Final
Syracuse@Boston College
74%
26%
32
23
✓
SYR −10.9
–
–
Final
Tulsa@HoustonUpset
19%
81%
37
30
✗
HOU −13.6
–
–
Final
Kansas@#13Kansas State
17%
83%
27
47
✓
KSU −15.1
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Miami (FL)
61%
39%
42
16
✓
PITT −4.8
–
–
Final
Air Force@San Diego State
67%
33%
13
3
✓
AF −7.6
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
#23Washington@Washington State
56%
44%
51
33
✓
WASH −3.0
–
–
Final
BYU@Stanford
53%
47%
35
26
✓
BYU −1.9
–
–

Sun, Nov 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#12LSU@Texas A&MUpset
67%
33%
23
38
✗
LSU −7.4
–
–
Final
UCF@USF
91%
8.9%
46
39
✓
UCF −22.0
–
–