The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 6 slate, 2022

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 57 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 49

Wilder than 49% of weeks in the archive.

13 upsets against 17.5 expected

  • Biggest shockTexas State over Appalachian State10% chance · won 36-24
  • Runner-upUtah State over Air Force16% chance · won 34-27
  • Runner-upArizona State over Washington23% chance · won 45-38

Upsets

Wed, Oct 5

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
SMU@UCF
43%
57%
19
41
✓
UCF −3.1
–
–

Fri, Oct 7

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Nebraska@Rutgers
49%
51%
14
13
✗
RUTG −0.5
–
–
Final
Houston@Memphis
45%
55%
33
32
✗
MEM −2.3
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Colorado State@Nevada
26%
74%
17
14
✗
NEV −10.5
–
–
Final
UNLV@San Jose State
43%
57%
7
40
✓
SJSU −3.0
–
–

Sat, Oct 8

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
Missouri@Florida
29%
71%
17
24
✓
FLA −9.2
–
–
Final
#9Tennessee@#16LSU
51%
49%
40
13
✓
TENN −0.2
–
–
Final
#19Arkansas@#15Mississippi State
41%
59%
17
40
✓
MSST −4.1
–
–
Final
#11TCU@Kansas
71%
29%
38
31
✓
TCU −8.9
–
–
Final
#7Texasvs#18Oklahoma
60%
40%
49
0
✓
TEX −4.0
–
–
Final
#4Michigan@Indiana
93%
7.1%
31
10
✓
MICH −24.3
–
–
Final
Purdue@#24MarylandUpset
41%
59%
31
29
✗
MD −3.8
–
–
Final
Louisville@Virginia
62%
38%
34
17
✓
LOU −5.0
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Western Michigan
31%
69%
45
23
✗
WMU −8.2
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Bowling Green
52%
48%
38
7
✓
BUF −0.6
–
–
Final
Akron@Ohio
29%
72%
34
55
✓
OHIO −9.5
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@Georgia State
43%
57%
33
41
✓
GAST −3.0
–
–
Final
USF@#17Cincinnati
3.0%
97%
24
28
✓
CIN −31.1
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Auburn@#3Georgia
4.9%
95%
10
42
✓
UGA −27.5
–
–
Final
#6Utah@#21UCLA
59%
41%
32
42
✗
UTAH −3.7
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#10Oklahoma State
20%
80%
31
41
✓
OKST −14.1
–
–
Final
Liberty@UMass
94%
6.0%
42
24
✓
LIB −25.6
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Northwestern
74%
26%
42
7
✓
WIS −10.6
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Pittsburgh
19%
80%
29
45
✓
PITT −14.4
–
–
Final
East Carolina@Tulane
41%
59%
9
24
✓
TULN −3.8
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Navy
64%
36%
21
53
✗
TLSA −5.9
–
–
Final
Ball State@Central Michigan
30%
70%
17
16
✗
CMU −9.0
–
–
Final
Toledo@Northern Illinois
65%
35%
52
32
✓
TOL −6.1
–
–
Final
Kent State@Miami (OH)
44%
56%
24
27
✓
M-OH −2.6
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@UAB
29%
71%
14
41
✓
UAB −9.4
–
–
Final
#23Ole Miss@Vanderbilt
82%
18%
52
28
✓
MISS −14.8
–
–
Final
#20Washington@Arizona StateUpset
78%
22%
38
45
✗
WASH −12.4
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@Michigan State
92%
8.3%
49
20
✓
OSU −22.9
–
–
Final
Duke@Georgia Tech
58%
42%
20
23
✗
DUKE −3.4
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Miami (FL)
52%
48%
27
24
✓
UNC −0.9
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@UTSA
36%
64%
28
31
✓
UTSA −5.9
–
–

Prime time 16 games

Final
Air Force@Utah StateUpset
84%
16%
27
34
✗
AF −16.4
–
–
Final
Wyoming@New Mexico
54%
46%
27
14
✓
WYO −1.4
–
–
Final
James Madison@Arkansas State
64%
36%
42
20
✓
JMU −5.8
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@Texas StateUpset
90%
10%
24
36
✗
APP −21.0
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Troy
34%
66%
10
27
✓
TROY −6.8
–
–
Final
UConn@FIU
68%
32%
33
12
✓
CONN −7.7
–
–
Final
UTEP@Louisiana Tech
47%
53%
31
41
✓
LT −1.2
–
–
Final
South Carolina@Kentucky
33%
67%
24
14
✗
UK −7.2
–
–
Final
Washington State@#13USC
19%
81%
14
30
✓
USC −14.6
–
–
Final
Kansas State@Iowa State
52%
48%
10
9
✓
KSU −0.9
–
–
Final
BYUvs#14Notre Dame
26%
74%
20
28
✓
ND −10.8
–
–
Final
Army@Wake Forest
17%
83%
10
45
✓
WAKE −15.8
–
–
Final
Iowa@Illinois
44%
56%
6
9
✓
ILL −2.5
–
–
Final
#8Clemson@Boston College
89%
11%
31
3
✓
CLEM −20.0
–
–
Final
Oregon@Arizona
78%
22%
49
22
✓
ORE −12.7
–
–
Final
Fresno State@Boise State
38%
62%
20
40
✓
BOIS −5.1
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Hawaii@San Diego State
18%
82%
14
16
✓
SDSU −15.6
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Stanford
60%
40%
28
27
✓
ORST −4.3
–
–

Sun, Oct 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#22Texas A&M@#2Alabama
11%
89%
20
24
✓
ALA −20.5
–
–
Final
Florida State@#25NC State
40%
60%
17
19
✓
NCSU −4.1
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Louisiana-Monroe
79%
21%
28
21
✓
CCU −13.2
–
–