The MRI
FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 7 slate, 2022

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 53 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 50

Wilder than 50% of weeks in the archive.

17 upsets against 15.4 expected

  • Biggest shockStanford over Notre Dame16% chance · won 16-14
  • Runner-upOld Dominion over Coastal Carolina24% chance · won 49-21
  • Runner-upColorado over California25% chance · won 20-13

Upsets

Wed, Oct 12

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Louisiana@Marshall
37%
63%
23
13
✗
MRSH −5.8
–
–

Thu, Oct 13

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Baylor@West Virginia
60%
40%
40
43
✗
BAY −4.1
–
–
Final
Temple@#25UCF
4.9%
95%
13
70
✓
UCF −27.5
–
–

Fri, Oct 14

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Navy@SMU
23%
77%
34
40
✓
SMU −12.3
–
–

Sat, Oct 15

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 12 games

Final
Auburn@#18Ole Miss
23%
77%
34
48
✓
MISS −12.3
–
–
Final
Iowa State@#5Texas
16%
84%
21
24
✓
TEX −16.5
–
–
Final
Kansas@Oklahoma
33%
67%
42
52
✓
OU −7.5
–
–
Final
#13Minnesota@IllinoisUpset
57%
43%
14
26
✗
MINN −2.8
–
–
Final
#8Penn State@#4Michigan
34%
66%
17
41
✓
MICH −7.2
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@Akron
82%
18%
28
21
✓
CMU −15.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Bowling Green
67%
33%
13
17
✗
M-OH −7.3
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Coastal CarolinaUpset
24%
76%
49
21
✗
CCU −12.1
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Virginia Tech
71%
29%
20
14
✓
MIA −9.2
–
–
Final
Buffalo@UMass
87%
13%
34
7
✓
BUF −18.7
–
–
Final
California@Colorado
75%
25%
13
20
✗
CAL −10.9
–
–
Final
UConn@Ball State
32%
68%
21
25
✓
BALL −7.8
–
–

Afternoon 18 games

Final
Arkansas@BYU
57%
43%
52
35
✓
ARK −2.9
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@#2Georgia
1.0%
99%
0
55
✓
UGA −38.5
–
–
Final
#3Alabama@#6Tennessee
67%
33%
49
52
✗
ALA −7.4
–
–
Final
#10Oklahoma State@#15TCU
49%
51%
40
43
✓
TCU −0.7
–
–
Final
#22Maryland@Indiana
79%
21%
38
33
✓
MD −13.2
–
–
Final
#21NC State@SyracuseUpset
55%
45%
9
24
✗
NCSU −1.8
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Eastern Michigan
47%
53%
39
10
✗
EMU −1.4
–
–
Final
Kent State@Toledo
24%
76%
31
52
✓
TOL −11.7
–
–
Final
Ohio@Western Michigan
42%
58%
33
14
✗
WMU −3.6
–
–
Final
Texas State@Troy
18%
82%
14
17
✓
TROY −15.2
–
–
Final
Charlotte@UAB
5.8%
94%
20
34
✓
UAB −26.2
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Middle Tennessee
60%
40%
35
17
✓
WKU −4.2
–
–
Final
Wisconsin@Michigan State
55%
45%
28
34
✗
WIS −2.0
–
–
Final
Tulane@USF
81%
19%
45
31
✓
TULN −14.4
–
–
Final
James Madison@Georgia Southern
62%
38%
38
45
✗
JMU −5.0
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@North Texas
31%
69%
27
47
✓
UNT −8.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@Washington
13%
87%
39
49
✓
WASH −18.8
–
–
Final
Rice@Florida Atlantic
37%
63%
14
17
✓
FAU −5.6
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
#24LSU@Florida
54%
46%
45
35
✓
LSU −1.4
–
–
Final
Utah State@Colorado State
64%
36%
17
13
✓
USU −5.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@South Alabama
15%
85%
34
41
✓
USA −17.0
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Southern Miss
39%
61%
19
20
✓
USM −4.7
–
–
Final
#11Mississippi State@KentuckyUpset
62%
38%
17
27
✗
MSST −4.9
–
–
Final
Stanford@#14Notre DameUpset
16%
84%
16
14
✗
ND −16.9
–
–
Final
Nebraska@#23Purdue
19%
81%
37
43
✓
PUR −14.5
–
–
Final
#7Clemson@Florida State
65%
35%
34
28
✓
CLEM −6.2
–
–
Final
Memphis@East Carolina
49%
51%
45
47
✓
ECU −0.5
–
–
Final
Washington State@Oregon State
37%
63%
10
24
✓
ORST −5.8
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Air Force@UNLV
70%
30%
42
7
✓
AF −8.6
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Fresno State
54%
46%
10
17
✗
SJSU −1.7
–
–
Final
Nevada@Hawaii
64%
36%
16
31
✗
NEV −5.6
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
UTSA@FIU
97%
2.9%
30
10
✓
UTSA −31.3
–
–

Sun, Oct 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
#12USC@#9Utah
42%
58%
42
43
✓
UTAH −3.7
–
–
Final
New Mexico@New Mexico State
67%
33%
9
21
✗
UNM −7.2
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Duke
67%
33%
38
35
✓
UNC −7.2
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 15 · 12:00 PM ET Colgate at Army Army −32.6 98%
Sat, Oct 15 · 3:30 PM ET Gardner-Webb at Liberty Liberty −27.1 95%