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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 2 slate, 2022

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 82 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 1

Chaos 99

Wilder than 99% of weeks in the archive.

19 upsets against 12.9 expected

  • Biggest shockEastern Kentucky over Bowling Green2.5% chance · won 59-57
  • Runner-upWashington State over Wisconsin6.2% chance · won 17-14
  • Runner-upMarshall over Notre Dame7.4% chance · won 26-21

Upsets

Fri, Sep 9

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Louisville@UCF
30%
70%
20
14
✗
UCF −7.8
–
–
Final
Boise State@New Mexico
85%
15%
31
14
✓
BOIS −16.7
–
–

Sat, Sep 10

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
#3Alabama@#12Texas
75%
25%
20
19
✓
ALA −11.0
–
–
Final
South Carolina@#14Arkansas
30%
70%
30
44
✓
ARK −7.8
–
–
Final
Missouri@Kansas State
36%
64%
12
40
✓
KSU −5.1
–
–
Final
Wake Forest@Vanderbilt
67%
33%
45
25
✓
WAKE −7.4
–
–
Final
Duke@Northwestern
25%
75%
31
23
✗
NU −9.9
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@#2Ohio State
0.2%
>99%
12
45
✓
OSU −46.3
–
–
Final
Ohio@#7Penn State
1.4%
99%
10
46
✓
PSU −34.0
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Georgia State
68%
32%
35
28
✓
UNC −7.8
–
–
Final
Southern Miss@Miami (FL)
6.3%
94%
7
30
✓
MIA −23.4
–
–
Final
UTSA@Army
48%
52%
41
38
✗
ARMY −0.4
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Central Michigan
29%
71%
38
24
✗
CMU −8.0
–
–
Final
Western Michigan@Ball State
60%
40%
37
30
✓
WMU −4.5
–
–
Final
Marshall@#6Notre DameUpset
7.4%
93%
26
21
✗
ND −22.1
–
–

Afternoon 15 games

Final
#9Tennessee@Pittsburgh
59%
41%
34
27
✓
TENN −4.0
–
–
Final
Appalachian State@#8Texas A&MUpset
16%
84%
17
14
✗
TA&M −14.7
–
–
Final
Colorado@Air Force
21%
79%
10
41
✓
AF −12.0
–
–
Final
Washington State@#15WisconsinUpset
6.2%
94%
17
14
✗
WIS −23.5
–
–
Final
Memphis@Navy
60%
40%
37
13
✓
MEM −4.3
–
–
Final
Maryland@Charlotte
93%
7.4%
56
21
✓
MD −22.9
–
–
Final
UNLV@California
15%
85%
14
20
✓
CAL −15.7
–
–
Final
Houston@Texas Tech
53%
47%
30
33
✗
HOU −1.5
–
–
Final
Iowa State@Iowa
34%
66%
10
7
✗
IOWA −5.7
–
–
Final
Virginia@Illinois
36%
64%
3
24
✓
ILL −5.0
–
–
Final
Akron@#17Michigan State
0.5%
>99%
0
52
✓
MSU −39.8
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@Colorado State
36%
64%
34
19
✗
CSU −4.9
–
–
Final
Kansas@West VirginiaUpset
25%
75%
55
42
✗
WVU −10.1
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@East Carolina
22%
78%
21
39
✓
ECU −11.6
–
–
Final
UAB@Liberty
75%
25%
14
21
✗
UAB −10.8
–
–

Prime time 12 games

Final
#18Kentucky@#20Florida
43%
57%
26
16
✗
FLA −2.3
–
–
Final
Kent State@#13Oklahoma
2.2%
98%
3
33
✓
OU −31.0
–
–
Final
Syracuse@UConn
93%
6.8%
48
14
✓
SYR −23.6
–
–
Final
UMass@Toledo
2.1%
98%
10
55
✓
TOL −31.5
–
–
Final
Northern Illinois@Tulsa
27%
73%
35
38
✓
TLSA −9.2
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Louisiana
16%
84%
21
49
✓
UL −14.7
–
–
Final
FIU@Texas State
18%
82%
12
41
✓
TXST −13.8
–
–
Final
San Jose State@Auburn
6.9%
93%
16
24
✓
AUB −22.7
–
–
Final
Arizona State@#10Oklahoma State
18%
82%
17
34
✓
OKST −13.9
–
–
Final
USC@Stanford
55%
45%
41
28
✓
USC −2.5
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@NebraskaUpset
13%
87%
45
42
✗
NEB −17.1
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UTEP
21%
79%
13
20
✓
UTEP −12.1
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Baylor@BYU
45%
55%
20
26
✓
BYU −1.5
–
–
Final
Oregon State@Fresno State
60%
40%
35
32
✓
ORST −4.6
–
–
Final
Mississippi State@Arizona
67%
33%
39
17
✓
MSST −7.4
–
–

Sun, Sep 11

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Hawaii@#4Michigan
0.1%
>99%
10
56
✓
MICH −46.9
–
–
Final
Boston College@Virginia Tech
53%
47%
10
27
✗
BC −1.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 10 · 4:00 PM ET Samford at #1 Georgia Georgia −62.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:30 PM ET Southern at #24 LSU LSU −43.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET Central Arkansas at Ole Miss Ole Miss −44.8 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 8:30 PM ET Eastern Washington at Oregon Oregon −33.5 98%
Sat, Sep 10 · 5:00 PM ET Alabama State at #16 UCLA UCLA −43.5 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 1:30 PM ET Southern Utah at #11 Utah Utah −45.2 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 4:00 PM ET Portland State at Washington Washington −41.3 >99%
Sun, Sep 11 · TBD Tarleton State at #21 TCU TCU −35.2 99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 12:00 PM ET Western Illinois at #19 Minnesota Minnesota −40.6 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 4:00 PM ET Indiana State at Purdue Purdue −39.2 99%
Sun, Sep 11 · TBD Idaho at Indiana Indiana −34.7 99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 4:00 PM ET Wagner at Rutgers Rutgers −39.2 99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 3:30 PM ET Furman at #5 Clemson Clemson −50.0 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET Western Carolina at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech −40.1 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 12:30 PM ET Charleston Southern at #22 NC State NC State −34.4 99%
Sun, Sep 11 · TBD Idaho State at San Diego State San Diego State −31.5 98%
Sat, Sep 10 · 4:00 PM ET Northern Colorado at Wyoming Wyoming −15.9 85%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET Weber State at Utah State Utah State −19.4 90%
Sat, Sep 10 · 5:30 PM ET Incarnate Word at Nevada Nevada −22.0 92%
Sat, Sep 10 · 2:00 PM ET Lafayette at Temple Temple −9.6 74%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET Alcorn State at Tulane Tulane −27.7 96%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET Lamar at #23 SMU SMU −41.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET Howard at USF USF −17.3 87%
Sat, Sep 10 · 3:30 PM ET Kennesaw State at #25 Cincinnati Cincinnati −28.8 97%
Sat, Sep 10 · 4:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Bowling Green Bowling Green −30.4 98%
Sat, Sep 10 · 6:00 PM ET Holy Cross at Buffalo Buffalo −12.4 80%
Sat, Sep 10 · 6:00 PM ET Robert Morris at Miami (OH) Miami (OH) −25.1 95%
Sat, Sep 10 · 4:00 PM ET Norfolk State at James Madison James Madison −28.2 97%
Sun, Sep 11 · TBD Nicholls at Louisiana-Monroe Louisiana-Monroe −17.4 88%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET Alabama A&M at Troy Troy −23.8 94%
Sat, Sep 10 · 6:00 PM ET Gardner-Webb at Coastal Carolina Coastal Carolina −32.5 98%
Sat, Sep 10 · 6:00 PM ET SE Louisiana at Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic −30.8 98%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:00 PM ET Stephen F. Austin at Louisiana Tech Louisiana Tech −21.8 92%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:30 PM ET Texas Southern at North Texas North Texas −22.5 93%
Sat, Sep 10 · 7:30 PM ET McNeese at Rice Rice −9.3 74%