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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 1 slate, 2022

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 94 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2

Chaos 14

Wilder than 14% of weeks in the archive.

16 upsets against 16.9 expected

  • Biggest shockWilliam & Mary over Charlotte6.3% chance · won 41-24
  • Runner-upDelaware over Navy20% chance · won 14-7
  • Runner-upNorthwestern over Nebraska30% chance · won 31-28

Upsets

Sat, Aug 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 1 game

Final
NebraskavsNorthwestern
70%
30%
28
31
✗
NEB −8.5
–
–

Afternoon 2 games

Final
UConn@Utah State
12%
88%
20
31
✓
USU −17.4
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Illinois
14%
86%
6
38
✓
ILL −16.1
–
–

Prime time 2 games

Final
Charlotte@Florida Atlantic
29%
71%
13
43
✓
FAU −7.9
–
–
Final
North Texas@UTEP
55%
45%
31
13
✓
UNT −2.5
–
–

Late night 2 games

Final
Nevada@New Mexico State
80%
20%
23
12
✓
NEV −13.2
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Hawaii
42%
58%
63
10
✗
HAW −2.7
–
–

Thu, Sep 1

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 4 games

Final
Ball State@#16Tennessee
6.8%
93%
10
59
✓
TENN −22.8
–
–
Final
West Virginia@Pittsburgh
28%
72%
31
38
✓
PITT −8.7
–
–
Final
Central Michigan@#9Oklahoma State
9.7%
90%
44
58
✓
OKST −19.8
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#17Minnesota
1.5%
98%
0
38
✓
MINN −33.9
–
–

Fri, Sep 2

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 3 games

Final
Western Michigan@#19Michigan State
12%
88%
13
35
✓
MSU −17.6
–
–
Final
Virginia Tech@Old Dominion
53%
46%
17
20
✗
VT −1.8
–
–
Final
Temple@Duke
35%
65%
0
30
✓
DUKE −5.4
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
TCU@Colorado
53%
47%
38
13
✓
TCU −1.6
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
#8Penn State@Purdue
56%
44%
35
31
✓
PSU −2.9
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@Missouri
19%
82%
24
52
✓
MIZ −13.4
–
–

Sat, Sep 3

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 6 games

Final
Buffalo@Maryland
11%
89%
10
31
✓
MD −18.8
–
–
Final
Colorado State@#4Michigan
2.5%
98%
7
51
✓
MICH −30.2
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Boston College
38%
62%
22
21
✗
BC −4.0
–
–
Final
North Carolina@Appalachian State
44%
56%
63
61
✗
APP −1.8
–
–
Final
#20NC State@East Carolina
63%
37%
21
20
✓
NCSU −5.5
–
–
Final
Bowling Green@#18UCLA
7.3%
93%
17
45
✓
UCLA −22.2
–
–

Afternoon 12 games

Final
#23Cincinnati@#15Arkansas
37%
63%
24
31
✓
ARK −4.7
–
–
Final
Oregonvs#1Georgia
13%
87%
3
49
✓
UGA −17.3
–
–
Final
Arizona@San Diego State
41%
59%
38
20
✗
SDSU −2.9
–
–
Final
Tulsa@Wyoming
64%
36%
37
40
✗
TLSA −6.0
–
–
Final
UTEP@#12Oklahoma
5.8%
94%
13
45
✓
OU −24.1
–
–
Final
Houston@UTSA
52%
48%
37
35
✓
HOU −1.2
–
–
Final
Troy@Ole Miss
15%
85%
10
28
✓
MISS −15.5
–
–
Final
BYU@USF
66%
34%
50
21
✓
BYU −7.1
–
–
Final
Texas State@Nevada
28%
72%
14
38
✓
NEV −8.7
–
–
Final
Florida Atlantic@Ohio
67%
33%
38
41
✗
FAU −7.4
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@James Madison
64%
36%
7
44
✗
MTSU −6.2
–
–
Final
Rice@USC
9.7%
90%
14
66
✓
USC −19.7
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
#10Utah@FloridaUpset
54%
46%
26
29
✗
UTAH −2.2
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@#24Kentucky
16%
84%
13
37
✓
UK −14.9
–
–
Final
Army@Coastal Carolina
47%
53%
28
38
✓
CCU −0.7
–
–
Final
Liberty@Southern Miss
42%
58%
29
27
✗
USM −2.7
–
–
Final
UMass@Tulane
4.3%
96%
10
42
✓
TULN −26.4
–
–
Final
Utah State@#3Alabama
3.6%
96%
0
55
✓
ALA −27.7
–
–
Final
Memphis@Mississippi State
28%
72%
23
49
✓
MSST −8.6
–
–
Final
Georgia State@South Carolina
25%
75%
14
35
✓
SC −9.7
–
–
Final
#5Notre Dame@#2Ohio State
22%
78%
10
21
✓
OSU −11.3
–
–
Final
SMU@North Texas
62%
38%
48
10
✓
SMU −5.1
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
Boise State@Oregon State
39%
61%
17
34
✓
ORST −3.8
–
–
Final
Kent State@Washington
10%
90%
20
45
✓
WASH −19.1
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Hawaii
53%
47%
49
17
✓
WKU −1.8
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Illinois@Indiana
52%
48%
20
23
✗
ILL −1.2
–
–

Sun, Sep 4

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
#22LSUvsFlorida StateUpset
54%
46%
23
24
✗
LSU −1.9
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#14Texas
3.9%
96%
10
52
✓
TEX −27.0
–
–
Final
Louisville@Syracuse
50%
50%
7
31
✗
LOU −0.5
–
–

Tue, Sep 6

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
#7ClemsonvsGeorgia Tech
77%
23%
41
10
✓
CLEM −11.9
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET Mercer at #21 Auburn Auburn −44.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 12:00 PM ET Sam Houston at #6 Texas A&M Texas A&M −31.1 98%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET Elon at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt −23.8 94%
Thu, Sep 1 · 10:00 PM ET Northern Arizona at Arizona State Arizona State −29.7 97%
Sat, Sep 3 · 4:00 PM ET UC Davis at California California −25.2 95%
Sun, Sep 4 · TBD Colgate at Stanford Stanford −35.4 99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 9:30 PM ET Idaho at Washington State Washington State −29.8 97%
Sat, Sep 3 · TBD Tennessee Tech at Kansas Kansas −23.9 94%
Sun, Sep 4 · TBD Murray State at Texas Tech Texas Tech −31.4 98%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET South Dakota at Kansas State Kansas State −32.4 98%
Sat, Sep 3 · 2:00 PM ET Southeast Missouri State at Iowa State Iowa State −35.1 99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 12:00 PM ET Central Connecticut at UConn UConn −12.6 80%
Sat, Sep 3 · 12:00 PM ET South Dakota State at #13 Iowa Iowa −33.8 98%
Sat, Sep 3 · 3:30 PM ET North Dakota at Nebraska Nebraska −36.4 99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET Illinois State at #11 Wisconsin Wisconsin −42.1 >99%
Sat, Aug 27 · 5:00 PM ET Duquesne at Florida State Florida State −34.9 99%
Sat, Aug 27 · 8:15 PM ET Florida A&M at North Carolina North Carolina −36.6 99%
Thu, Sep 1 · 7:30 PM ET VMI at #25 Wake Forest Wake Forest −40.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 3:30 PM ET Bethune-Cookman at Miami (FL) Miami (FL) −35.4 99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 12:30 PM ET Richmond at Virginia Virginia −31.6 98%
Thu, Sep 1 · 10:30 PM ET Cal Poly at Fresno State Fresno State −33.8 98%
Sat, Aug 27 · 3:30 PM ET Idaho State at UNLV UNLV −19.3 90%
Sat, Sep 3 · 3:30 PM ET Norfolk State at Marshall Marshall −26.8 96%
Sat, Sep 3 · 1:00 PM ET Northern Iowa at Air Force Air Force −28.1 97%
Sun, Sep 4 · TBD Maine at New Mexico New Mexico −11.1 77%
Thu, Sep 1 · 10:30 PM ET Portland State at San Jose State San Jose State −20.4 91%
Thu, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET South Carolina State at UCF UCF −33.1 98%
Sat, Sep 3 · 12:00 PM ET Delaware at Navy Navy −12.5 80%
Thu, Sep 1 · 6:00 PM ET Saint Francis at Akron Akron −12.3 80%
Fri, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET Eastern Kentucky at Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan −28.9 97%
Fri, Sep 2 · TBD Eastern Illinois at Northern Illinois Northern Illinois −25.2 95%
Sat, Sep 3 · 6:00 PM ET Morgan State at Georgia Southern Georgia Southern −22.6 93%
Sat, Sep 3 · 5:00 PM ET Nicholls at South Alabama South Alabama −16.5 86%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET SE Louisiana at Louisiana Louisiana −25.9 95%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET UAlbany at Baylor Baylor −36.5 99%
Sat, Sep 3 · 7:00 PM ET Grambling at Arkansas State Arkansas State −19.4 90%
Sat, Aug 27 · 12:00 PM ET Austin Peay at Western Kentucky Western Kentucky −31.8 98%
Thu, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET Bryant at FIU FIU −12.9 81%
Fri, Sep 2 · TBD Alabama A&M at UAB UAB −24.6 95%
Fri, Sep 2 · 7:00 PM ET William & Mary at Charlotte Charlotte −23.4 94%
Thu, Sep 1 · 7:00 PM ET Long Island University at Toledo Toledo −33.2 98%