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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 9 slate, 2022

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 48 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 3 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 42

Wilder than 42% of weeks in the archive.

15 upsets against 13.4 expected

  • Biggest shockCharlotte over Rice14% chance · won 56-23
  • Runner-upMissouri over South Carolina23% chance · won 23-10
  • Runner-upNorth Texas over Western Kentucky24% chance · won 40-13

Upsets

Thu, Oct 27

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 2 games

Final
Virginia Tech@#24NC State
8.8%
91%
21
22
✓
NCSU −21.3
–
–
Final
Louisiana@Southern Miss
58%
42%
24
39
✗
UL −3.8
–
–

Late night 1 game

Final
#9Utah@Washington State
77%
23%
21
17
✓
UTAH −12.4
–
–

Sat, Oct 29

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
#23Arkansas@Auburn
63%
37%
41
27
✓
ARK −5.8
–
–
Final
Oklahoma@Iowa State
47%
53%
27
13
✗
ISU −0.8
–
–
Final
#12TCU@West Virginia
79%
21%
41
31
✓
TCU −13.1
–
–
Final
#17Notre Dame@Syracuse
48%
52%
41
24
✗
SYR −0.3
–
–
Final
Boston College@UConn
68%
32%
3
13
✗
BC −8.2
–
–
Final
#1Ohio State@#7Penn State
78%
22%
44
31
✓
OSU −12.8
–
–
Final
Georgia Tech@#25Florida State
11%
89%
16
41
✓
FSU −19.0
–
–
Final
USF@Houston
10%
90%
27
42
✓
HOU −19.7
–
–
Final
Toledo@Eastern Michigan
77%
23%
27
24
✓
TOL −12.3
–
–
Final
Miami (OH)@Akron
73%
27%
27
9
✓
M-OH −10.3
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@Virginia
48%
52%
14
12
✗
UVA −0.2
–
–
Final
Charlotte@RiceUpset
14%
86%
56
23
✗
RICE −17.0
–
–
Final
Rutgers@#22Minnesota
16%
84%
0
31
✓
MINN −15.6
–
–

Afternoon 14 games

Final
Old Dominion@Georgia State
44%
56%
17
31
✓
GAST −1.9
–
–
Final
Floridavs#2Georgia
6.4%
94%
20
42
✓
UGA −24.0
–
–
Final
#13Oregon@California
79%
21%
42
24
✓
ORE −13.4
–
–
Final
#10Oklahoma State@Kansas StateUpset
60%
40%
0
48
✗
OKST −4.5
–
–
Final
Northwestern@Iowa
13%
87%
13
33
✓
IOWA −17.6
–
–
Final
#20Illinois@Nebraska
70%
30%
26
9
✓
ILL −8.9
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@UMass
57%
43%
23
13
✓
NMSU −3.5
–
–
Final
#16Wake Forest@LouisvilleUpset
55%
45%
21
48
✗
WAKE −2.4
–
–
Final
Cincinnati@UCF
45%
55%
21
25
✓
UCF −1.6
–
–
Final
Temple@Navy
19%
81%
20
27
✓
NAVY −13.3
–
–
Final
SMU@Tulsa
64%
36%
45
34
✓
SMU −6.2
–
–
Final
North Texas@Western KentuckyUpset
24%
76%
40
13
✗
WKU −10.9
–
–
Final
Missouri@South CarolinaUpset
23%
77%
23
10
✗
SC −11.2
–
–
Final
South Alabama@Arkansas State
66%
34%
31
3
✓
USA −7.2
–
–

Prime time 10 games

Final
Kentucky@#5Tennessee
21%
79%
6
44
✓
TENN −12.2
–
–
Final
#11USC@Arizona
88%
12%
45
37
✓
USC −19.3
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Boise State
6.0%
94%
10
49
✓
BOIS −24.5
–
–
Final
Coastal Carolina@Marshall
36%
64%
24
13
✗
MRSH −5.3
–
–
Final
UAB@Florida Atlantic
62%
38%
17
24
✗
UAB −5.5
–
–
Final
#21Ole Miss@#19Texas A&M
41%
59%
31
28
✗
TA&M −3.1
–
–
Final
Arizona State@Colorado
73%
27%
42
34
✓
ASU −10.1
–
–
Final
Baylor@Texas Tech
43%
57%
45
17
✗
TTU −2.3
–
–
Final
Michigan State@#4Michigan
8.3%
92%
7
29
✓
MICH −21.7
–
–
Final
Middle Tennessee@UTEP
56%
44%
24
13
✓
MTSU −2.9
–
–

Late night 4 games

Final
Stanford@#18UCLA
21%
79%
13
38
✓
UCLA −12.2
–
–
Final
San Diego State@Fresno State
26%
74%
28
32
✓
FRES −9.9
–
–
Final
Nevada@San Jose State
14%
86%
28
35
✓
SJSU −17.0
–
–
Final
Wyoming@Hawaii
65%
35%
27
20
✓
WYO −6.4
–
–

Time TBD 2 games

Final
East Carolina@BYU
51%
49%
27
24
✓
ECU −0.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana Tech@FIU
70%
30%
34
42
✗
LT −8.7
–
–

Sun, Oct 30

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Pittsburgh@North Carolina
35%
65%
24
42
✓
UNC −5.7
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Oct 29 · 3:30 PM ET Robert Morris at Appalachian State Appalachian State −40.8 >99%