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FootballBasketball
2026 · Week 11

Week 3 slate, 2022

The slate as it stood before the Sunday refresh, with final scores. 72 games with an FBS team; the model’s line and win chance for each were set before kickoff.

Pre is the model’s win chance before kickoff. Model is the favourite and the margin the ratings predict, reconstructed walk-forward from ratings as they stood that week - never from anything the model learned afterward.

Slates: This week · Bowls · Week 14 · Week 13 · Week 12 · Week 11 · Week 10 · Week 9 · Week 8 · Week 7 · Week 6 · Week 5 · Week 4 · Week 2 · Week 1

Chaos 84

Wilder than 84% of weeks in the archive.

12 upsets against 11.7 expected

  • Biggest shockEastern Michigan over Arizona State6.4% chance · won 30-21
  • Runner-upSouthern Illinois over Northwestern7.1% chance · won 31-24
  • Runner-upCharlotte over Georgia State9.6% chance · won 42-41

Upsets

Fri, Sep 16

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Prime time 1 game

Final
Florida State@Louisville
58%
42%
35
31
✓
FSU −3.6
–
–

Sat, Sep 17

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Early 13 games

Final
#1Georgia@South Carolina
91%
9.0%
48
7
✓
UGA −21.3
–
–
Final
#11Oklahoma@Nebraska
76%
24%
49
14
✓
OU −11.2
–
–
Final
Texas State@Baylor
5.3%
95%
7
42
✓
BAY −24.7
–
–
Final
UConn@#4Michigan
0.1%
>99%
0
59
✓
MICH −49.7
–
–
Final
#23Purdue@SyracuseUpset
50%
50%
29
32
✓
PUR −0.3
–
–
Final
#18CincinnativsMiami (OH)
90%
9.6%
38
17
✓
CIN −20.7
–
–
Final
Western Kentucky@Indiana
44%
56%
30
33
✓
IU −1.7
–
–
Final
Buffalo@Coastal Carolina
11%
89%
26
38
✓
CCU −18.3
–
–
Final
South Alabama@#22UCLA
10%
90%
31
32
✓
UCLA −19.3
–
–
Final
Ohio@Iowa State
6.7%
93%
10
43
✓
ISU −22.9
–
–
Final
Rutgers@Temple
86%
14%
16
14
✓
RUTG −17.1
–
–
Final
Old Dominion@Virginia
25%
75%
14
16
✓
UVA −9.9
–
–
Final
California@#16Notre Dame
13%
87%
17
24
✓
ND −17.3
–
–

Afternoon 16 games

Final
Tulane@Kansas StateUpset
22%
78%
17
10
✗
KSU −11.3
–
–
Final
North Texas@UNLV
54%
46%
27
58
✗
UNT −1.9
–
–
Final
#5Penn State@Auburn
75%
25%
41
12
✓
PSU −10.7
–
–
Final
Ole Miss@Georgia Tech
74%
26%
42
0
✓
MISS −10.4
–
–
Final
Vanderbilt@Northern Illinois
56%
44%
38
28
✓
VAN −2.9
–
–
Final
Colorado@#19Minnesota
7.8%
92%
7
49
✓
MINN −21.6
–
–
Final
BYU@Oregon
44%
56%
20
41
✓
ORE −2.0
–
–
Final
New Mexico State@#25Wisconsin
0.5%
>99%
7
66
✓
WIS −39.6
–
–
Final
Troy@Appalachian State
8.9%
91%
28
32
✓
APP −20.5
–
–
Final
Georgia Southern@UAB
26%
74%
21
35
✓
UAB −9.2
–
–
Final
Louisiana-Monroe@#3Alabama
0.2%
>99%
7
63
✓
ALA −46.0
–
–
Final
Kansas@HoustonUpset
21%
79%
48
30
✗
HOU −12.0
–
–
Final
Colorado State@Washington State
14%
86%
7
38
✓
WSU −16.5
–
–
Final
Liberty@Wake Forest
9.1%
91%
36
37
✓
WAKE −20.3
–
–
Final
Marshall@Bowling GreenUpset
88%
12%
31
34
✗
MRSH −19.0
–
–
Final
#17Mississippi State@LSUUpset
52%
48%
16
31
✗
MSST −1.4
–
–

Prime time 13 games

Final
Akron@#10Tennessee
0.3%
>99%
6
63
✓
TENN −43.6
–
–
Final
Texas Tech@#21NC State
27%
73%
14
27
✓
NCSU −8.9
–
–
Final
Toledo@#2Ohio State
2.1%
98%
21
77
✓
OSU −31.6
–
–
Final
Arkansas State@Memphis
17%
83%
32
44
✓
MEM −14.3
–
–
Final
Charlotte@Georgia StateUpset
9.6%
90%
42
41
✗
GAST −19.8
–
–
Final
USF@Florida
4.7%
95%
28
31
✓
FLA −25.7
–
–
Final
#14Michigan State@WashingtonUpset
53%
47%
28
39
✗
MSU −1.7
–
–
Final
Nevada@Iowa
10%
90%
0
27
✓
IOWA −19.0
–
–
Final
SMU@Maryland
43%
57%
27
34
✓
MD −2.1
–
–
Final
Pittsburgh@Western Michigan
78%
22%
34
13
✓
PITT −12.6
–
–
Final
UCF@Florida Atlantic
56%
44%
40
14
✓
UCF −2.7
–
–
Final
Louisiana@RiceUpset
78%
22%
21
33
✗
UL −12.5
–
–
Final
Miami (FL)@#12Texas A&M
28%
72%
9
17
✓
TA&M −8.6
–
–

Late night 3 games

Final
San Diego State@#13Utah
4.7%
95%
7
35
✓
UTAH −25.7
–
–
Final
Fresno State@#20USC
21%
79%
17
45
✓
USC −11.8
–
–
Final
Eastern Michigan@Arizona StateUpset
6.4%
94%
30
21
✗
ASU −23.3
–
–

Time TBD 1 game

Final
Air Force@WyomingUpset
90%
10%
14
17
✗
AF −20.3
–
–

Sun, Sep 18

TimeGamePre ScoreLive ModelMarketEdge

Time TBD 3 games

Final
Louisiana Tech@#8Clemson
1.3%
99%
20
48
✓
CLEM −34.3
–
–
Final
UTEP@New Mexico
42%
58%
10
27
✓
UNM −2.5
–
–
Final
UTSA@#6Texas
14%
86%
20
41
✓
TEX −16.0
–
–

Against FCS opponents

WhenGame ModelWin
Sat, Sep 17 · 7:00 PM ET Missouri State at #9 Arkansas Arkansas −26.5 96%
Sat, Sep 17 · 12:00 PM ET Youngstown State at #15 Kentucky Kentucky −41.7 >99%
Sat, Sep 17 · 12:00 PM ET Abilene Christian at Missouri Missouri −39.9 >99%
Sat, Sep 17 · 11:00 PM ET North Dakota State at Arizona Arizona −13.8 82%
Sun, Sep 18 · TBD Montana State vs Oregon State Oregon State −33.9 99%
Sat, Sep 17 · 1:00 PM ET Towson at West Virginia West Virginia −26.0 95%
Sat, Sep 17 · 7:00 PM ET Arkansas-Pine Bluff at #7 Oklahoma State Oklahoma State −45.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 17 · 12:00 PM ET Villanova at Army Army −25.1 95%
Sat, Sep 17 · 12:00 PM ET Southern Illinois at Northwestern Northwestern −22.4 93%
Sat, Sep 17 · 7:30 PM ET Maine at Boston College Boston College −38.5 99%
Sat, Sep 17 · 6:00 PM ET North Carolina A&T at Duke Duke −28.2 97%
Sat, Sep 17 · 11:00 AM ET Wofford at Virginia Tech Virginia Tech −27.7 96%
Sat, Sep 17 · 7:00 PM ET Jacksonville State at Tulsa Tulsa −8.0 71%
Sat, Sep 17 · 3:30 PM ET Stony Brook at UMass Stony Brook −5.1 62%
Sat, Sep 17 · 7:00 PM ET Northwestern State at Southern Miss Southern Miss −18.3 89%
Sat, Sep 17 · 4:00 PM ET UT Martin at Boise State Boise State −32.7 98%
Sat, Sep 17 · 11:59 PM ET Duquesne at Hawaii Hawaii −15.7 85%
Sat, Sep 17 · 6:00 PM ET Campbell at East Carolina East Carolina −41.4 >99%
Sat, Sep 17 · 2:00 PM ET Murray State at Ball State Ball State −21.8 92%
Sat, Sep 17 · 1:00 PM ET Bucknell at Central Michigan Central Michigan −23.0 93%
Sat, Sep 17 · 12:00 PM ET Long Island University at Kent State Kent State −30.3 98%
Sat, Sep 17 · 7:00 PM ET Tennessee State at Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee −18.5 89%